LOUISVILLE, Ky. _ Unlike last spring, there's no 3-year-old dazzling you with his potential and his presence the way Justify did. The most popular adjective attached to Saturday's 145th Kentucky Derby is "wide-open." Few handicappers will dispute that in a race with no standout and plenty of disagreement.
Mr. Derby, five-time winner Bob Baffert, is running three colts _ the Santa Anita Derby winner, Roadster; last season's 2-year-old champion, Game Winner, and the quick but temperamental Improbable _ but not the morning-line favorite. That distinction goes to 4-1 Omaha Beach, who beat Game Winner (the 5-1 second choice) in the Rebel and Improbable (6-1) in the Arkansas Derby. That convinced last year's Triple Crown-winning jockey, Mike Smith, to leave Baffert and Roadster (6-1) and stick with Omaha Beach.
"I think it's a nice group of horses," Baffert said, "but none of them are really popping off the screen. Whoever gets the trip is going to win it.
"It's a different feel from last year and with (2015 Triple Crown hero) American Pharoah. Last year with Justify I knew I had the horse, I just needed some luck. It was my race to lose, so there was more pressure. I've got three nice horses this year, but there's a lot of parity. There's about 10 horses who look pretty good."
Ten might be a stretch, but settling on a four-horse exacta box will be a serious challenge. Besides Omaha Beach and Baffert's trio, among the leading candidates is trainer Bill Mott's Tacitus, who won the Wood Memorial despite a rough trip. Tacitus (10-1) is impeccably bred for the 1 \-mile Derby distance (by top sire Tapit out of the champion mare Close Hatches). Tacitus has the rare ability to make a sweeping move on the far turn, a surge that often blows open the Derby.
Mott, like Richard Mandella (Omaha Beach), is a Hall of Famer who is winless in the Derby. Six years ago, Shug McGaughey was saddled with that oh-fer until his breakthrough with Orb. McGaughey is running the erratic Code of Honor (15-1), a closer who needs a strong pace, which he might get. He was asked if he feels for Mott and Mandella having to deal with the stigma of Best Trainer Never to Win the Derby.
"I'm not going to be empathizing with them this year," McGaughey said. "If I don't have one in next year and they do, then I'll be empathizing with them. This year, they're on their own."
Then there's the field's only unbeaten horse, trainer Jason Servis' 4-for-4 Maximum Security, a former $16,000 maiden claimer who stole the Florida Derby on an easy lead. "That horse, he's kind of a freak," Baffert said. Maximum Security (10-1) has some believers, and it's foolish to disregard a colt who's never lost, but don't expect the other riders to let Luis Saez set fractions of 48 4/5 seconds and 1:12 4/5 again.
Fun facts: The Derby favorite has won the last six years, and Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming and Justify each won his final prep. So maybe the smart move would be to go against the grain of this supposedly wide-open Derby by boxing the four top betting choices.
OK, boring, right? It's a Derby tradition for many players to stab at the score of a lifetime, trying to convince themselves that slow, outclassed horses have a chance. Sixteen of this year's 20 are double-digit odds, and 12 are 20-1 or higher. Shrewd handicappers won't hesitate to throw out pretenders whose speed numbers and class ratings don't measure up.
The temptation for small players will be to bet a little, dreaming of getting back a lot, on three or four longshots, and maybe a couple more. Chances are excellent that those tickets will be good only for recycling, but if you bet just once a year, fire away. Derby Day is also amateur day, so enjoy yourself.
