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Javier Martín Vide, Catedrático de Geografía Física, Universitat de Barcelona

A very strong El Niño may be approaching. Here’s what it could mean for the world’s weather

Homes and train tracks were destroyed when heavy rains caused a river to burst its banks in Chaclacayo, near Lima in Peru, on March 19, 2017. Joseph Moreno M/Shutterstock

El Niño is a recurring climate event with impacts across the globe. It has three phases: one cold (known as La Niña), one neutral, and one warm (El Niño).

In 2026, spring in the northern hemisphere took place in a neutral phase, which followed a relatively mild La Niña. Short-term forecast models indicate that by mid-year it is very likely that we will enter an El Niño phase. This El Niño could become very intense towards the end of the year, with talk of a “super-El Niño”. But what effects might it have? And has something similar happened in the past?

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