In the past few days, headlines are buzzing over the possibility of a mega-mega-merger that before the news broke would have seemed inconceivable: a possible tie-up between United Airlines and American Airlines. American already ranks as the world’s largest carrier by passengers flown, and United stands fourth. At their current sizes, the combo would be twice the size of both second place Delta and number three Ryanair on the global stage, and ferry over three-and-a-half times as many folks as continental Europe’s largest stalwart, Lufthansa. In the U.S., the deal would break a near three-way tie with Delta for available seats and catapult a new behemoth into by far the most dominant stateside position in the annals of air travel.
Anytime one airline seeks to buy a rival, the proposed transaction attracts antitrust scrutiny and political controversy practically unmatched in any other realm of M&A. And because of its scale in an already highly concentrated sector, and potential to raise fares, limit choice, and curb the frequency of service to dozens of smaller markets, this mother of all unions would face far fiercer than usual opposition on multiple fronts. Hence, it’s a long shot. But the industry insiders Fortune interviewed swear that it’s by no means impossible. The reason: the Trump administration’s attraction to grand gestures—you can call it broad exercises in industrial policy—that remake wide swaths of the economy (and may sideline the usual top goals such as ensuring strong competition).
