After surging during the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. homicide rate has declined sharply in the last few years, hitting a record low in 2025. Although President Donald Trump says he is responsible for that welcome development, a new report from the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) suggests that factors unrelated to his policies played a much more important role.
Trump has been eager to cite the CCJ while claiming credit for the homicide drop. But he is unlikely to tout this report, which is based on a survey of 48 crime experts who convened to assess four dozen possible explanations for the decline. None of them thought the federal policies highlighted by Trump were major contributors.
