Things often look prettiest when they're on the horizon. The glint of a magnificent skyline. A superb sunset. A budget surplus and real wages growth.
Always just out of reach until you properly arrive.
The ACT budget now plots a path back towards surpluses by the end of the forward estimates, after a period when the COVID-19 economic crisis blew Chief Minister Andrew Barr's plans to get the budget back in the black.
It's still a long trudge to 2025-26, when the budget estimates a $141.9 million surplus.
Come what may, it almost does not matter if Mr Barr delivers the surplus. The pathway illuminated in this budget makes the task of the opposition harder at next year's election.
Mr Barr on Tuesday spoke of the good: full employment, strong population growth, a growing economy that was creating jobs.
For a while now, the Chief Minister has taunted the Canberra Liberals to outline what they would cut from the budget to achieve their stated aim of surpluses sooner. After Tuesday, he's got a budget to point to that sets out how he plans to do it without the kind of deep cuts voters might associate with a Liberal government.
The budget papers also reveal the government's expectation the nation's capital will be nicely insulated from the worst of national and global economic conditions. The budget's outline of assumptions play down the risks of global economic uncertainty on the ACT.
The city's annual inflation rate - 6.2 per cent to March 2023 - was lower than the national rate of 7 per cent. The highest average weekly income levels help, as does renewable energy contracts that have prevented the kind of bill shock other states and territories will need to brace for.
Taming inflation globally may prove difficult, international analysts have suggested. But Mr Barr has long been confident the ACT will avoid the worst of it.
"Now we acknowledge that at this point in time, some Canberra households are doing it really tough due to inflation," Mr Barr said on Tuesday.
"Inflation is of course a national and global problem. But we are looking at local solutions. This budget delivers cost-of-living support to households who need it most."
This remains a challenge. The ACT budget shows signs of health. Yes, net debt will grow to more than $10 billion at the end of the forward estimates but the government is planning infrastructure investments it says should be paid off over more than one generation. It is fair to say theatres, stadiums and light rail extensions shouldn't be paid for up front.
However, people who feel they are sliding backwards are prone to take out their frustration on the government, whether or not there's a surplus. Sustained real wages growth is not forecast until after the next territory election.
Mr Barr just needs to get Canberrans to believe his vision of what's on the horizon if he plans to stick around to preside over that elusive surplus.
We've made it a whole lot easier for you to have your say. Our new comment platform requires only one log-in to access articles and to join the discussion on The Canberra Times website. Find out how to register so you can enjoy civil, friendly and engaging discussions. See our moderation policy here.
