It is thoroughly disappointing to many that after its recent conclave at Udaipur, Rajasthan, which was convened after much deliberation to pave the way for a new journey, the Indian National Congress has failed to come up with a political game changer that is capable of effecting a paradigm shift to its fight against the current regime.
The Congress party has come under fire from many which includes poll strategist Prashant Kishor. Most political commentators have articulated their criticism against party leader Rahul Gandhi, by connecting the outcome of the Udaipur conclave with his rejection, just before the meet, of a plan of action that Mr. Kishor had designed to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
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Battle in 2024
Of course, the Congress leadership, and Rahul Gandhi in particular, deserve all criticism for weakening the party, and in the process, strengthening the BJP significantly. The frustration of commentators — liberals in particular — is not ill-founded as their perception is that the Congress leadership has shown little sign of gearing up to take on the BJP and instil hope in the Congress party in the run-up to the Lok Sabha election in 2024. After all, the results of 2024 have the potential of accelerating the far reaching changes that are being wrought upon the country’s political make-up.
What lies at the core
Yet, if Rahul Gandhi had indeed wielded his veto to reject Mr. Kishor’s plan of action, he does not deserve condemnation, as there is substantive reason for this. Mr. Kishor’s intention to unite the Opposition parties in taking on the Narendra Modi-led BJP might have been well-taken even if he (Mr. Kishor) was a catalyst in Mr. Modi’s rise on the national scene. It must be reckoned that he, more than anyone in the Opposition, has been responsible for not just Mr. Modi’s rise but also the brand of politics that represents Mr. Modi coming to the fore.
The reduction of politics to electoralism, and that too to arithmetic in a country of diverse ethnic groups and landscapes, is a key feature of Mr. Kishor’s calculus. In the last few years, this reductionism has taken the form of an addiction to numbers.
We do not know the entire details of the plan of action that Mr. Kishor presented to the Congress. But a gist is available.
Let us look at the Congress’s strike rate against the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. For every 100 seats that the Congress had a straight fight with the BJP, it won only six in 2014 and only four in 2019. The bulk of its victories were in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Punjab, where it did not face the BJP. So, though the Congress remains a principal force to oppose the BJP, it is still not a winning force.
Party’s gradual decline
The decline of the Congress is not a temporary phenomenon. It was last returned to power with an absolute majority in 1984 (it had won 404 seats then). In decades thereafter, though it was in power for 15 years during this period, its biggest success was in the 2009 parliamentary elections (it won 206 seats then). The decline was, therefore, a continuation of its fall in fortunes since 1984.
The Congress remained a principal force despite declining electoral performance because it has retained a decent 30% vote share consistently. But, currently, that has fallen to 19% as against the 40% core vote share of the BJP. The Congress has to double its vote share to get a majority and to do that, it has to win over votes that are now held by the regional parties.
The dynamics that kept the Congress as a decisive political force for three decades despite its electoral decline would on the other hand help the BJP remain a decisive political force for long as it has a higher core vote share of 40%.
This malady faced by the Congress has been identified with fair accuracy by Mr. Kishor. It is time for the Congress to stop functioning as just a distinct political party. It has to transform itself as an umbrella — under which all political parties, big and small, have to be assembled. It has to remember that the Congress before Independence, the legacy of which it claims so zealously, was nothing short of that. It should cease fighting the regional parties in States where it has no chance of coming to power and ally with them with the sole aim of dislodging its principal adversary in Delhi. This would bring in immediate electoral dividends.
A common feature
There is no doubt that it is a long and difficult journey to defeat the BJP in the cultural and political arena. A new federal narrative has to be created at the top and there has to be continuous contact with people at the base. The Congress should design a plan of action in the cultural and political realms and execute it thoroughly. The problem with Mr. Kishor is that he does not stop at identifying the disease as an astute lab technician. Rather, he dons the role of doctor and seeks to decide the course of treatment.
If one examines the electoral strategy model rolled out by Mr Kishor not only to help the BJP but also regional forces such as the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United), the erstwhile Capt. Amarinder Singh-led Punjab Congress, the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress and the M.K. Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, there is a strikingly common feature — to focus on a single leader’s popularity and to concentrate the power of the party and its narrative in one person at the helm.
A danger not cognisant to many lies in the point of the centralised power of political parties. While Mr. Modi tends to centralise the Indian state, government institutions and their style of functioning, Mr. Kishor is paving the way to achieve the same in respect of political parties and their style of functioning.
While this can bring transient electoral success, its simplistic mathematical nature as opposed to the more organic link between the party and the people is problematic and incapable of bringing substantial change in the fortunes of a political project. The other fallout is the consolidation of majoritarianism of particular castes and religions in Indian politics that does away with the consociationalism that is inherent in collective leadership and diversity.
To the extent that Mr. Kishor has identified the weaknesses of the Congress and its challenges, the party’s leadership must accept and address them. But it is another matter if it should take Mr Kishor’s lead in adopting the brand of politics that he has promoted in his role as a political consultant in the last decade. It may bring a sense of purpose to the Congress but it will be at the detriment of the alternative that the people desperately need and seek.
Samas is Editor for Arunchol.com, independent media. E-mail: writersamas@gmail.com Translated by Venumani
