The NFC is a bit of a mess.
While in the AFC 10 teams currently have winning records, the NFC only has four that sit above .500. That means there’s room for some expected participants on the weaker side of the bracket.
Enter the New York Giants and Chicago Bears.
The Bears started their season 2-7. The Giants were 2-8. Each enjoyed modest turnarounds as the weather grew colder, but after 15 weeks of the regular season each is 5-9.
And each is still eligible for the playoffs. In fact, there’s a universe in which both teams make it to the second season with their sights set on Super Bowl 58.
Despite the fact the New York Times pegs their combined postseason odds at three percent (two percent for Chicago, one for New York), hope persists with three games remaining. It’s not just that these teams could rally from miniscule playoff odds, it’s that either could rise up and *not* be the NFC’s seventh and final seed.
It’s unlikely, but it’s possible. Here’s how, in only 17 simple steps.
First, Tommy Cutlets wins out
It goes without saying, but the Giants still need to win a bunch of games. There’s a chance a loss next week keeps their playoff hopes alive, at which point they’d need about 20 things to go exactly right to make it to the seventh seed at 7-10.
As much as I’d love a world in which that happened, let’s simplify things. Ending the season on a three-game winning streak only gets New York to 8-9, but the NFC’s a mess, right? That keeps the sixth seed in the conference in play while leaving some wiggle room should the Giants’ rivals have the gall to win games over the final three weeks of the season.
And all they’d have to do is beat:
- the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16
- the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17
- the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 18
Certainly there’s no problem there. Sure, the Eagles have won their last four games against New York. You know what those games didn’t have? Tommy DeVito whipping passes through the air like a hand-tossed crust, baby.
Of course, the Bears win out too
Chicago went 3-1 between Weeks 10 and 14. And unlike the Giants their schedule to wrap up 2023 is fairly light. The Bears need wins against:
- the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16
- the Atlanta Falcons in Week 17
- the Green Bay Packers in Week 18
Honestly? They might do it even without the faintest of postseason hopes — especially if that Week 18 game in Green Bay comes against a division rival one win from a Wild Card spot (see the Packers’ performance their primetime season finale one year ago). And if the rest of these outcomes break in their favor, they could even make the field at 7-10 with a loss to the Cardinals (but not the Falcons or Packers).
Week 16: Five feasible results to knock the NFC contenders down a peg
- the New Orleans Saints beat the Los Angeles Rams
- the Indianapolis Colts beat the Atlanta Falcons
- the Detroit Lions beat the Minnesota Vikings
- the Tennessee Titans beat the Seattle Seahawks
- the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Hitting all five of these outcomes is unlikely, but on their own you could see how the Giants could stay alive with a win in Week 16. The Saints, Colts and Jaguars are all competent teams. The Lions are seemingly one of only three good teams in the NFC. The Titans … well the Titans are at home in Week 16, so they’ve got that going for them.
Week 17: Three more reasonable wins to boost New York's odds
- the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the New Orleans Saints
- the Green Bay Packers beat the Minnesota Vikings
- the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Seattle Seahawks (or the Seahawks lose to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 18)
Again, this is all fairly reasonable because the middle class of the NFC is a disaster. Waiting for a Falcons loss is like waiting for a dry wind in the desert. The Buccaneers already beat the Saints on the road. The Vikings will either be starting Nick Mullens, Joshua Dobbs or Jared Hall in Week 18. And the Seahawks, fresh off a four-game losing streak, just need to go 2-2 over their last four games to crack open the door for Brian Daboll and Matt Eberflus.
Week 18: A couple more believable results and, helllllooooo sixth and seventh seeds
- the Detroit Lions beat the Minnesota Vikings
- the Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints
- the Washington Commanders beat the Dallas Cowboys
These three things don’t *have* to happen for the Giants to make the playoffs so long as the Bears beat the Packers in this scenario. They do if Chicago is going to join them in the field. This would give the NFC three playoff teams with worse than .500 records (New York, Tampa Bay, Chicago). In a universe where we’re making Tommy Cutlets a postseason starter, that feels right.
So there you have it. We’re a mere 16 steps away from not just a Giants playoff bid but a potential NFC title game at Metlife Stadium (all they’d need is two wins and for whomever lands in the seventh spot to win two of their own). Here’s what that playoff field would look like:
- San Francisco 49ers (projected record: 14-3)
- Detroit Lions (12-5)
- Dallas Cowboys (11-6)
- New Orleans Saints (10-7)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
- New York Giants (8-9)
- Chicago Bears (7-10)
And, there you have it. Undisputed proof the NFL was wrong to expand the playoffs.
