The Conservative party is looking for its third leader of the year, and could have one in place as early as Monday teatime. In an attempt to temper the ridicule for the second leadership contest this year, the process has been dramatically shortened. Candidates will be whittled down on Monday with the final two going to the membership – provided the runner-up doesn’t drop out.
The rule changes are aimed at finding a candidate quickly rather than allowing for endless appearances by ambitious ministers. “The best thing the 1922 Committee has done is saved us from a week of ministers like Brandon Lewis pretending they have a chance,” says one party old hand.
The threshold – each candidate must win the backing of 100 MPs – to even enter means that at maximum there will be three candidates. The most likely contenders are Rishi Sunak, Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt. Each have MP backers coming out to support them – though only Mordaunt has publicly declared. MPs are watching out to see what Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch do, too – given they both threw their hats in the ring last time – but the threshold is probably too high for them.
Of the three candidates that MPs are, for now, getting behind, Mordaunt is trailing. “I think the air has gone out of Penny,” says one MP who had previously considered backing her. Others blame the fact that she backed Truss – it was a move that landed badly with the one nation Tories, who took an “anyone but Truss” stance. What’s more, the scale of the crisis means that experience is viewed as even more important than it was a few months ago in the first leadership contest of the year. “I fear she could be Liz Truss mark II,” says one member of the 2010 intake. “She’s relatively untested.”
Instead, the main talk among MPs is about a Sunak v Johnson playoff. Up until today, Sunak was widely regarded as the frontrunner. His warnings on the economy during the leadership campaign have been proved right. He could also go some way to calming the markets. He leads on MP nominations. However, there are still plenty of Tories who dislike him. “Rishi can’t unite the party,” says one MP in the centre. Though it’s not clear at this point that anyone could.
Others fear a revolt from Tory members if he is pushed through. “They did have the option of Rishi and they said no. I like him; I’d vote for him – but I’m not sure it works with the grassroots,” says a member of the 2015 intake.
What’s more, he now faces an insurgent campaign from his former boss. The former prime minister had stayed silent as Truss fought to cling on to power. It led to talk that Johnson may not even want to return. But, while he is yet to say so publicly, it’s clear he is testing the water about a return. “He’ll only want to announce if it’s clear he will win – and that the party needs him,” says a former cabinet colleague.
To this end, a “shock and awe” campaign is under way. His supporters are trying to push out endorsements at pace, with MPs taking to the airwaves, in an attempt to make it seem all but inevitable that he will be triumphant. While it has the party’s attention, others are unconvinced. “They are the loudest and noisiest people,” says a former minister.
“I think he might get stuck at the 85/90 mark,” says a party old hand. Big endorsements in the Sunday papers could change that, convincing MPs worried about their seats that this is the better option. His supporters believe that if he reaches the membership, he will triumph.
But Johnson’s problem is that Truss’s downfall could have come a bit too soon. “The wounds are fresh – there are MPs who will quit if he returns. I didn’t resign to oust him to then vote to get him back in. The party is having a nervous breakdown if it thinks Boris Johnson is the answer.” They predict chaos from day one.
There is also an obstacle focusing minds: the privileges committee. Johnson is being investigated over whether he misled parliament on Covid rule breaches. “It will be three months of pain and Partygate all over again,” predicts a former Johnson backer. If found guilty, he could face a suspension leading to a byelection.
Downing Street could try to avoid this fate. It could try to junk the committee investigation in advance or ask MPs to vote against the punishment. Both would need Commons votes. Both would face opposition. It would be a repeat of the Owen Paterson debacle. “There would be a revolt. It would result in a new leader,” says a senior Tory. “I would back Boris if it wasn’t for privileges,” says one MP, looking ahead nervously.
The Truss era is over – but the psychodrama is just beginning.
Katy Balls is the Spectator’s deputy political editor
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