This year's holiday season may deliver the strongest sales growth in four years, but it won't be a broad recovery—wealthy households are expected to drive nearly all of the gains.
According to Oxford Economics, holiday retail sales—excluding autos, gas, bars and restaurants—are expected to rise 4.6% in nominal terms and 1.6% in inflation-adjusted volume over the 2024 season. The last time real sales volume saw a comparable increase was in 2021.
