A warm winter is supposed to be on the cards
(Picture: Andrew Matthews/PA)This year’s winter is billed to be milder than expected, which could save homes and businesses millions of pounds in heating bills.
Despite the Government promising to limit typical energy bills to £2,500, as well as paying households £400 in instalments, winter temperatures will be a key decider in what people pay.
According to Christopher O’Reilly, of the University of Reading, a one-degree-lower-than-average temperature would equate to an extra overall cost of £1 billion, based on the October price cap for gas.
Even a decrease of 0.5°C would cause energy bills to increase by £500 million. Speaking to the Times, he said: “The numbers are pretty big, and the stakes are pretty high.”
Fortunately, the outlook for this winter suggests a relatively mild winter ahead, according to the Department of Meteorology.
According to a six-month seasonal forecast using data and a climate model from the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, UK temperatures are predicted to be above average from November to February.
According to the forecast this winter, the UK could expect an average temperature of between 5.2°C to 5.7°C.
The average minimum temperature in December is usually 1.4°C, while the average maximum temperature is 7°C, according to the Met Office.
However, long-term forecasts are inherently uncertain, with the Met Office issuing outlooks only up to three months ahead, which have been made available to authorities for contingency measures.
O’Reilly cautioned that there may still be cold snaps triggered by the stratosphere suddenly warming up, leading to brief events, such as 2018’s “beast from the east”.
In order to corroborate his findings, O’Reilly looked at several factors that can influence UK winters, including La Niña weather patterns, where water in the Pacific is cooler than normal and easterly winds are stronger.
There is also a world-wide 1.1°C climate increase that the world has experienced since the industrial revolution.
