Warning: The following consists of unreliable Oscar night guesswork and raw, untrammeled favoritism.
But first! Give it up for the 95th Academy Awards on Sunday! They’re only one year older than the priceless James Hong, my fellow University of Minnesota alum and one of the greatest character actors we have in this universe. Though Hong was not nominated (mistake!) for this year’s likely best-picture front-runner “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” he’s a crucial player — and a welcome master of steely comic calm — in that film’s tale of one beleaguered family, a troubled mother-daughter relationship and an infinite array of realities.
Stats first. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” has won nearly everything it can up to now, notably the Directors Guild Award, the Producers Guild Award and the Screen Actors Guild Award. As noted by Los Angeles Times Oscarmeister Glenn Whipp: Across the last eight out of nine years, if a film swept the guild trifecta, it went on to win best picture on Oscar night.
The exception? In 1996, “Apollo 13″ lost to “Braveheart.” So if “Everything Everywhere All at Once” loses to, say, “All Quiet on the Western Front,” much admired for its technical proficiency and its determination to grind guts, both on screen and in viewers’ bellies, it’ll be an upset.
The dubiously slick new adaptation of the Erich Maria Remarque novel “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which points its middle finger directly at the French in ways Remarque did not, lays into the miseries of trench warfare in World War I. It deploys every digital blood squib and slick, artful, debatably soulless technological method available to contemporary filmmakers. And it’s backed by an Oscar-nominated musical score (and probable winner) that’s heavy enough to make even Hans Zimmer think, well, that’s a bit much.
Some love the film; they’re gripped by it in a way that leads to admiration, either grudging or enthusiastic. It will likely win several Academy Awards. And as strange as it sounds, it has a lot in common with “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
Rhythmically, though, nothing in common. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is all about velocity, while “All Quiet on the Western Front” is methodical in its assault. Yet both films, as visual stories, do not let up for a moment. The attack is unrelenting. This is also true of the Baz Luhrmann biopic “Elvis,” which could, in fact, be called “Attack of the Baz Luhrmann biopic Elvis!”
Do I think “Everything Everywhere All at Once” will garner best picture, best actress (Michelle Yeoh), best director (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, aka the Daniels), best supporting actor (Ke Huy Quan) and best supporting actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), among other possible wins? I do. I also plan on being wrong.
Like any film worth an argument, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” has led to a multiverse of verdicts. It’s “frantically hyperactive and self-admiring and yet strangely laborious, dull and overdetermined, never letting up for a single second” (Peter Bradshaw, The Guardian). Or else it’s “an incredibly moving family drama” (Alison Willmore, Vulture).
“All Quiet on the Western Front” has provoked a similar range of reactions: It’s either “heart-wrenching” (Marya E. Gates, Playlist), or its “magnification in scale and dexterity lends itself to showing off … the movie aims to pummel you with ceaseless brutality” (Ben Kenigsberg, The New York Times). Or both. Or neither!
That sensory pummeling makes moviegoers feel like they’re getting their money’s worth, in a way that gratifies or rewards us even if we start thinking antiquated thoughts of enough, already. But the visceral smash-and-grab of these radically dissimilar works — dissimilar on the surface, cousins underneath — speaks, I think, to something in the air right now.
Getting flattened by a movie feels almost redundant at the moment. Thanks to the pandemic, the world has been rendered a little flatter, a little less rounded with possibility. More than ever, we look to the movies to provide an escape hatch, even if it’s the blood-pumping hell of war without a lot of moral complexity (a bad sign with “All Quiet on the Western Front,” however it’s adapted). Or, in “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” a story of a struggling family in relational crisis, saved by two-plus hours of nimble multiverse cosplay.
Up against those grabbers, what chance does the ruminative, take-it-or-leave-it excellence of writer-director Todd Field’s “Tár” have in the best picture run? Roughly none. Approximately nil. Whatever: It’s my favorite of the 10 nominees, and that’s an opinion that will not help you at all if you’re in an Oscar night betting pool with your friends.
The full list for the category: “All Quiet on the Western Front”; “Avatar: The Way of Water”; “The Banshees of Inisherin”; “Elvis”; “Everything Everywhere All at Once”; “The Fabelmans”; “Tár”; “Top Gun: Maverick”; “Triangle of Sadness”; “Women Talking.”
To that end, here are my predictions for the 95th running of the bull, also known as Hollywood’s company picnic, even if nobody knows which conglomerate is running what anymore. All the best to those in the film industry trying to keep theatrical exhibitions alive. And to those who aren’t, well, straight into “Everything Everywhere All at Once”’s bagel of oblivion to you, at least for a while. Consider it a timeout.
Best Picture: Will win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Should win: “Tár.”
Best Director: Will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Should win: Todd Field for “Tár.”
Actor in a Leading Role: Will win: Brendan Fraser in “The Whale.” Should win: Colin Farrell in “The Banshees of Inisherin.”
Actress in a Leading Role: Will win: Michelle Yeoh in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Should win: Cate Blanchett in “Tár.”
Actor in a Supporting Role: Will win: Ke Huy Quan in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Should win: Barry Keoghan in “The Banshees of Inisherin.”
Actress in a Supporting Role: Will win: Jamie Lee Curtis in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Should win: Kerry Condon in “The Banshees of Inisherin.”
Original screenplay: Will win: “The Banshees of Inisherin.” Should win: “Tár.”
Adapted screenplay: Will win and should win: “Women Talking.”
Animated feature: Will win: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.” Should win: “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On.”
Animated short film: Will win: “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse.”
Documentary feature: Will win: “Navalny.” Should win: “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed.”
Documentary short film: Will win: “Stranger at the Gate.”
International feature: Will win: “All Quiet on the Western Front.” Should win: “EO.”
Cinematography: Will win: “All Quiet on the Western Front.” Should win: ”Tár.”
Production design: Will win: “All Quiet on the Western Front.” Should win: “The Fabelmans.”
Sound: Will win: “All Quiet on the Western Front.” Should win: “The Batman.”
Editing: Will win and should win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
Costume design: Will win: “Elvis.” Should win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
Makeup and hairstyling: Will win: “Elvis.” Should win: “The Batman.”
Live action short film: Will win : “Le Pupille.”
Original score: Will win: “All Quiet on the Western Front.” Should win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
Original song: Will win and should win: “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR.”
Visual effects: Will win: “Avatar: The Way of Water.” Should win: “Top Gun: Maverick.”
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The 95th Academy Awards will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles on March 12, presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. The live broadcast of the ceremony, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel, will begin 8 p.m. ET on ABC, and is also available via streaming on abc.com or via Hulu Live TV, YouTube TV, AT&T TV and Fubo TV.
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