TAMPA, Fla. — Those flocking to Pinellas County beaches and Tampa’s theme parks this March can expect plenty of the sunshine they crave.
That’s because a La Niña pattern is expected to keep Tampa Bay warmer and drier than usual this springtime, with high temperatures in the mid-80s and little-to-no rain most days, said John McMichael of the National Weather Service’s Ruskin Office.
La Niña is a recurring climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that affects weather conditions across the globe. In Florida, a La Niña pattern means warmer temps and drier air in the springtime, followed by an increased chance of hurricanes in the summer.
La Niña is peaking at just the right time, McMichael said. The phenomenon is set to slowly phase into a neutral pattern by summer, which will make conditions less conducive for hurricanes in the Atlantic. Meantime, tourists and locals alike will enjoy picture-perfect beach weather through at least May.
To see what the next few months will look like on a smaller scale, check out this week’s forecast: There is no chance of rain until Monday and Tuesday of next week, and, even then, just a 10 percent chance. The highs will be in the lower 80s through Saturday.
This extended forecast is likely good news for Tampa Bay hotels and businesses: March through May is Tampa Bay’s peak tourist season, said Visit Tampa Bay spokesperson Patrick Harrison.
The region has already been setting visitor records for the last 10 months, Harrison said, and he doesn’t expect it to slow.
“We expect March to be a very successful month, potentially the best ever month in Hillsborough County hotel revenue history,” Harrison told the Tampa Bay Times in an email Wednesday.
Helping boost this year’s numbers could be baseball fans coming to watch Spring Training games now at full capacity, as well as Canadians visiting again for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic closed the northern border from March 2020 through last November.
Canada is Tampa Bay’s No. 1 supplier of tourists, Harrison said, and he expects plenty of them to head south soon.
This year’s weather will be fairly typical, McMichael said, just slightly warmer and drier. The region usually gets only 2.5 inches of rain in March.
One difference is how quickly the heat came in 2022. A new daily heat record was set Feb. 17, when the temperature at Tampa International Airport hit 86 — a new record by four degrees. Temperatures have reached 80 degrees in Tampa each day since and are expected to stay there until Sunday when a cold front drops the high to 74.
The average temperatures for March to May in Tampa Bay, based on data collected by the Weather Service for the last 30 years, is a high of 83 and a low of 64.
One result: Higher temperatures in February and March mean the Gulf of Mexico warms up sooner for beachgoers, McMichael said.
He added that the gulf may already have warmed higher than normal. A lack of cloud cover has also been a factor this month.
“If you have a prolonged period, a week or two of heat and sunshine like that,” McMichael said, “the ocean is bound to warm up a degree or two.”
------
