Australia’s win over France in the Women’s World Cup featured the longest penalty shootout in World Cup history – 20 spot kicks were taken, six more than the record of 14 set just a week earlier when Sweden beat the USA, and eight more than the men’s tournament record of 12.
Even outside penalty shootouts, a single spot kick can easily decide the outcome of a game at a World Cup, making any advantage in taking a penalty crucial. So what can we learn about the best strategy for penalty kicks from statistics and research?
First, a caveat – almost all of these studies are based on men’s games, there is no research into penalties in women’s football that I was able to find.
Go first
One of the best things a team can do is to win the shootout coin toss. Research, based on shootouts at major competitions including the World Cup, European Championship and English domestic cups between 1970 and 2008, shows the team kicking first wins 60.5% of the time.
Importance of a good run-up
One of the studies with the largest sample of penalty kicks is a 2020 paper published in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport.
The lead author, Mikael Jamil, and others compared the effectiveness of a wide range of techniques and other factors on penalty shot success across the top men’s football competitions in England, Spain, Germany and Italy. One of the most interesting findings was that effective techniques actually varied depending on the country – for example, shots down the middle of the goal were statistically associated with successful penalties in the English Premier League, but in La Liga, the bottom-left and bottom-right corners were the hotspots.
A long run-up (more than six steps) preceding the kick was associated with a successful penalty in all locations. In three countries a medium run-up (two to five steps) was was also successful. Short run-ups were not.
Power v placement
A 2002 paper with a small sample of penalty kicks suggests, unsurprisingly, that shots with less power are more likely to be saved, shots with a lot of power are more likely to miss, and that the sweet spot is in between the two, with the authors suggesting shots at about 75% of full pace have the highest success.
In Jamil’s 2020 paper, the authors categorised power and placement shots based on kicking action – those taken with the inside of the foot were considered to be placement shows, while those taken with the instep were considered to be power shots. Both types of strike were associated with successful penalties in three out of four countries.
Shot position
Several papers have categorised the area of the goal targeted by the penalty taker to try to determine if there is an optimal strategy. Researchers divided the goals into a grid, and coded where penalty kicks were directed, as well as if the shot was saved, missed, or scored.
Here, you can see the results from a 2016 study by Carlos Almeida and co-authors, published in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport:
The results from Almeida’s paper, and others, confirms what many footballers (and fans) know – there is a trade-off between risk and reward when it comes to shot placement.
Simply put, shots towards the upper section of the goal are much harder to save, but are more likely to miss. And, even though shots toward the upper area are harder to save, it is much more common for players to kick towards the lower area of the goal. Analysts suggest that this is because many players would prefer to have a shot be on target, with the risk of being saved, rather than miss entirely.
While not the case in Almeida’s 2016 paper, other studies and statistics suggest shooting down the centre of the goal can be a good strategy – but again, it may depend on the league.
A 2009 paper analysing 311 penalty kicks from various men’s professional leagues around the world found shots at the centre of the goals were less likely to be saved than shots to the side. Premier league stats from Opta Sports say shooting low left has a 77.2% success rate and low right 80%. But aiming to the centre and high has a 97.8% success rate, and there’s a success rate of 80.2% for a low shot to the centre.
Jamil’s 2020 paper also looked at shot placement, and found shooting towards the middle of the goal was associated with successful penalties in the Premier League, but in other leagues shots at the bottom corners were also associated with successful shots.
In part, the success (or not) of shot placement is down to …
Goalkeeper behaviour
Several papers also track the movement of the goalkeeper during penalties. Given the speed of penalty kicks, it’s rarely possible for a goalkeeper to wait and react to the direction of the kick. Instead, the goalkeeper makes a guess at which way the player will shoot based on body language and their knowledge of the player’s past penalties.
However, one interesting stat shows up in several papers – goalkeepers almost always jump left or right, and rarely stay in the centre, even though anywhere between 20% and 30% of shots go down the middle:
Various researchers suggest goalkeepers have a bias towards action – that is, they would rather be seen to be actively diving to save the ball, even if they get the direction wrong, than staying in the centre and seeing a ball go into the corners. There are however some exceptions to this, such as when Andrew “The Grey Wiggle” Redmayne correctly predicted a panenka kick – a chip shot down the centre – from Brendon Santalab in the 2019 A-League Men grand final.
Unpredictability
Even though some of these stats suggest that if the goalkeeper rarely stays in the centre, and shots to the centre can therefore have a decent success rate, there is an element of game theory to penalties. Goalkeepers are often briefed on, or have studied the penalty-taking habits of their opponents, and if everyone started shooting towards the centre more, goalkeepers would respond accordingly. Therefore, researchers argue one of the best strategies for a penalty taker is to be unpredictable, and for players to change their approach to spot kicks regularly.
