If you are going to watch one seat in Queensland this election campaign, mark down the inner-city electorate of Brisbane. While hopeful of winning another seat or two, this electorate is the only one, at the moment, that Labor believes it will steal off the LNP.
It’s make-up is fascinating. Progressive voters, who fought early for LGBTIQA+ protections. Older voters, conservative to the bootstraps. Trendy suburbs like New Farm and Newstead. Established heritage suburbs like Windsor. The ritzy streets of Clayfield. It includes the city’s CBD, and snakes along the river from the Gateway Bridge to Milton, and then north.
It used to belong only to Labor, but a redistribution changed that, and in 2010 the LNP’s Teresa Gambaro took it off Arch Bevis, who had held it for 20 years. Since then, it’s been held by the LNP, including the incumbent Trevor Evans, Queensland’s first openly gay MP, who took over in 2016.
Canvas Brisbane voters and aircraft noise pops up as a local issue. But that’s topped by climate change, housing affordability and cost of living.
The candidates are all strong. Evans, who holds it with a 4.9% margin, is articulate and hardworking. Labor’s golden girl is Deloitte executive Madonna Jarrett. And the Greens vote will be crucial, with the party doubling its support to 22% between 2007 and 2019.
So why does Labor believe it has Brisbane “in the bag”? And why do Coalition strategists admit it will be difficult to hold, despite widespread praise for Evans?
“It’s the Morrison factor,” says a Liberal strategist.
“They just can’t stand Morrison,” says a Labor campaigner.
The Morrison factor is huge in Queensland. In city seats it’s as negative as a cold day in the South Pole, and will probably cost Evans his seat. But in rural and regional areas, the Morrison factor flips, with an approval level (according to some internal polling) almost double that of Anthony Albanese’s.
This is what drives the view that the Coalition will probably hang on to all the seats it has outside the state’s south-east. That means Queensland is unlikely to be the kingmaker on May 21; it also means the state’s galloping Greens vote might be less than expected this time around. And that may come down to the Morrison factor too.
“In Brisbane it’s about getting rid of Morrison and the best way to do that is to vote Labor,” one insider says.
Last night, on a televised Sky News debate hosted by Joe Hildebrand, voters believed Evans beat Jarrett 64% to 36%. To anyone watching, that is probably a fair mark. But that doesn’t matter when the Morrison factor comes into play.
