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Fortune
Fortune
Jeremy Kahn

A former OpenAI researcher sees a clear path to AGI this decade. Bill Gates disagrees

Microsoft founder and chairman Bill Gates. (Credit: Sean Gallup—Getty Images)

Hello and welcome to Eye on AI. And a happy early July Fourth to my U.S. readers.

This week, I’m going to talk about two starkly different views of AI progress. One view holds we're on the brink of achieving AGI—or artificial general intelligence. That’s the idea of a single AI model that can perform all the cognitive tasks a human can as well or better than a person. AGI has been artificial intelligence’s Holy Grail since the field was founded in the mid-20th century. People in this “AGI is nigh” camp think this milestone will likely be achieved within the next two to five years. Some of them believe that once AGI is achieved we will then rapidly progress to artificial superintelligence, or ASI, a single AI system that's smarter than all of humanity.

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