If at first you don't succeed, make more problems for yourself. That seems to be the mantra in Washington when it comes to the Middle East. Every few years, a U.S. president asks Americans to go along with a small military commitment in the region—or starts one without asking the public. Almost inevitably, it causes bigger problems than promised.
Friends turn into enemies. The chaos allows bad actors to grow, or creates new factions with a reason to resent America. The political goalposts shift; the U.S. government discovers that a problem it didn't care about before is actually a "vital interest." And time after time, politicians promise that all these problems can go away with just one more decisive strike against the real cause of conflict in the region. No forever war is ever advertised that way from the beginning.
President Donald Trump is speedrunning this whole problem. Just a month ago, he was promising the end of "nation building" and grandiose "neocon" schemes. Now, he's directly entered the Israeli-Iranian war by bombing Iran. While Vice President J.D. Vance tried to claim that "we're not at war with Iran" and the attack would be a one-off incident, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump himself have both hinted that the U.S. will escalate to regime change if Iran does not surrender. Here's how we got to this point—and some of the times we've seen this movie before.
