Boris Johnson has not been toppled - for now - after the Sue Gray report on Downing Street parties blasted “failures of leadership” in No10.
Tory MPs have not yet sent the 54 letters they need to trigger a no-confidence vote, after the PM told them he nearly died of Covid in a desperate plea.
But ex-leader William Hague slammed the PM’s bullish response to Parliament, where he made unfounded attacks on Labour, and said he “should be very worried”.
Lord Hague wrote in The Times: “The Prime Minister could have got on the front foot, advancing his position on a broader front of ensuring integrity in government.
"Yet for some reason, this very intuitive politician decided to do the minimum in responding to the report rather than go further in his apology and his proposals.
"Instead of reinforcing the momentum in his favour, he quite possibly stalled it. If I were him, I would be very worried about the number of his own MPs who asked unhelpful questions at the end of his statement."
Ex-PM Theresa May said Mr Johnson either ignored the rules or hadn't read or understood them.
And Ex-minister Andrew Mitchell, who told Mr Johnson “he no longer enjoys my support”, said today it “is more corrosive than the expenses scandal” adding: “Boris is running a modern government like a medieval court”.
Despite all this Tory anger, it will take a huge head of steam before the PM can be toppled. While it takes 54 Tory plotters to trigger a no-confidence vote, it takes 180 for Boris Johnson to lose it.
So what are the factors that could nudge Tory MPs closer to sacking him - or forcing him to resign?
We have a look at nine hurdles on the road ahead.
Police findings
The Met Police have been handed more than 500 pages of evidence and 300 photos by the Sue Gray inquiry team.
Scotland Yard are investigating 12 gatherings, at least three of which the Prime Minister is known to have attended.
They will start contacting those who attended for more information and give out fixed penalty notices.
Scotland Yard have said they will not name those who receive on-the-spot fines, and Downing Street have not promised to do so either.
But Boris Johnson will face enormous pressure to say if he personally has been given a fine by the police.
If he has, it could make his position untenable with Tory MPs on the side of law and order. While a fixed penalty notice absolves recipients of a criminal record, it’s essentially an acceptance that they committed a criminal offence.
A No10 spokesman said today he was “not aware” of any contact between the police and the Prime Minister - yet.
Sue Gray’s second report
Boris Johnson will publish a second Sue Gray report on Downing Street parties after the Met Police probe concludes.
This was a U-turn, after the PM sparked fury by refusing to guarantee he would publish a second report at a later date.
No10 has still stopped short of saying it will be a “full report”, saying only it will be another “update”.
And it's thought that even in her second report, Sue Gray would be unlikely to publish a full catalogue of e-mails, texts and photos.
This is because the names of staff tend to be kept anonymous in such reports - and her remit was only to establish a "general understanding".
Even so, this will be a moment of danger for the Prime Minister, as Tory MPs who want to topple him will no longer have reason to delay.
More evidence - including photos
Sue Gray warned she has “extensive substantive factual information” on No10 parties.
She interviewed more than 70 people and checked e-mails, WhatsApps, texts, photographs, official records and entry and exit logs.
But details were stripped out after the Met Police asked her to make only "minimal reference" to 12 gatherings under investigation.
It seems unlikely she would ever publish that evidence in full - her remit is only to establish a “general understanding” (see above).
That opens the question of whether sources inside government will get fed up and leak more incriminating evidence to the media.
Any new headlines could spark a new wave of Tory recriminations and fresh letters to the 1922 Committee.
April’s energy bills rise
Experts have warned average energy bills could rise by £700 a year when the price cap is changed on April 1.
In the same week the student loans repayment threshold will freeze, and inflation is set to hit grocery bills.
Tory ex-minister Stephen Crabb said one couple in his seat would see their fixed tariff “more than double”, and “they are going to really struggle this year to pay their energy costs”.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak has been locked in talks on how to help, ahead of Ofgem announcing April’s energy price cap next Monday.
But pressed repeatedly to announce a plan in the Commons, he replied: “We continue to look at all the policies we have in place.”
When that plan is announced, all eyes from Tory MPs - especially in ‘Red Wall’ seats - will be on whether it is enough.
Tax hikes
Some Tory MPs are furious after Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak refused to U-turn over a 1.25-point National Insurance rise on April 6.
Pressure from within the party could mount as the date draws closer, with inflation soaring and energy bills shooting up.
Shadow Treasury Minister Pat McFadden said the PM and Chancellor had “nailed themselves to the mast” with an article on the weekend, adding: “Like Thelma and Louise, they’ve held hands and they’re about to drive off a cliff”.
Treasury minister Simon Clarke claimed there is “no other responsible way” to pay for NHS improvements. He added: “The six million lowest-paid will pay no extra tax at all as a result of the levy.”
But Tory rebels have warned the fight is not over - and would use any weakness in the PM’s position as leverage to force a U-turn.
May local elections
Thousands of council seats will be up for grabs in the May 5 local elections, including all of them in Wales, London and Scotland.
While Labour and the SNP respectively already have an advantage in many of these areas, MPs’ eyes will be on any ground gained by Keir Starmer.
And plenty of councils in swing territory in England also have a portion of their seats up for grabs, which could lead to Tory losses if the party is unpopular.
Without formal ‘mid-terms’ in the UK, the local elections are often seen as a make-or-break time for a flailing leader. Disaster in these could cost the PM dear.
Plummeting polls
Opinion polls are consistently putting Labour ahead, with the latest today - by Savanta ComRes - giving Keir Starmer’s party an 11-point lead, up from eight.
The latest survey puts the Tories on 33% and Labour on 44%.
The same firm yesterday found two-thirds of UK adults (65%) did not accept the PM’s apology for Partygate in the House of Commons.
Some Tory MPs claim it is a disaster on the doorstep, while others insist it is not coming up with any vehemence - usually depending how they feel about the PM.
But one thing is for sure: MPs being barracked by their own voters every Friday and Saturday, when they return to constituency business, are often forced to act.
Backbenchers - from grandees to 2019ers
The PM’s fate rests in the hands of his own back benchers. Two groups in this instance could be particularly important.
The first is the party grandees and big names. Some grandees who’ve not been fans for a while have made their voices clear. If Cabinet ministers or leadership rivals follow, that could trigger a domino effect.
The other element is the flank of MPs who entered in 2019. They vary greatly from MP to MP and currently do not speak with one voice (and probably never will).
A so-called ‘pork pie plot’ by about 20 of them fizzled out. But if that group enlarged and became more organised it could be trouble for the PM.
One 2019 Tory MP, Aaron Bell, told Boris Johnson he drove three hours to his grandmother’s funeral in May 2020 without stopping in for hugs or tea, adding: “Does the Prime Minister think I’m a fool?”
And finally… the next general election
The biggest poll of all is, of course, a general election.
If it approaches (currently in 2023 or 2024) and MPs fear they’re going to lose their seats, they could oust the PM in a bid to survive.
Or of course, if Boris Johnson stuck it out and then lost, that would inevitably trigger his resignation or sacking by his own party. Either way, the prospect of a ticking clock on your own job is never a nice one for a back bench MP.
