In contrast with the chaos of the college football coaching market the last two years, it’s been a bit of a slow burn to start the 2023 carousel.
As the calendar turned to November, the only Power Five openings were Michigan State and Northwestern, both of which opened for non-football reasons. It looked like we could be heading for a relatively quiet cycle.
Then, a major domino fell. In what became something of a “Black Sunday” for college football coaches, Texas A&M decided to part ways with coach Jimbo Fisher (and pay the $76 million buyout that came with that decision).
Since then, we’ve seen a few more changes, including in the SEC West. Mississippi State fired first-year coach Zach Arnett just 11 games into his tenure after he took over last December after the death of coach Mike Leach.
In the Group of Five ranks, Boise State axed third-year coach Andy Avalos, and San Diego State (and former Michigan) coach Brady Hoke announced his retirement.
These were the first moves to be made, but if history is any indicator, they’ll be far from the last. Here are eight more coaches who find themselves on the hot seat with two weeks left in the regular season.
1. Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh
Narduzzi took this Pittsburgh program to new heights in 2021, winning the ACC with a first-round quarterback in Kenny Pickett and a stellar offense led by coordinator Mark Whipple.
Well, Pickett went to the draft, Whipple left the program as a result of apparent philosophical differences, and after a dropoff in 2022, the Panthers have cratered in 2023. They sit at 2-8 on the season with an unlikely win over top-10 Louisville being the only thing to brag about.
It seems like Narduzzi didn’t capitalize on the window, and it has now closed completely.
He’s probably safe, but comments like the ones he made after a 58-7 loss to Notre Dame in which he seemed to call out the talent on his own roster that resulted in blowback on social media from his players didn’t help his cause.
2. Dino Babers, Syracuse
Babers’ Syracuse teams have followed similar, disappointing scripts the last two seasons. Last year, the team started 6-0 but dropped six of its final seven, and this season, a 4-0 start was followed by a five-game losing streak. The Orange ended that skid with a win over Pittsburgh, but it seems like Babers could be in serious trouble.
He’s just 41-54 in his eighth season in central New York, and aside from a 10-win 2018 campaign, he hasn’t surpassed seven wins once. This is among the hardest jobs in the Power Five, but it still feels like Syracuse has taken this experiment to its conclusion.
3. Tom Allen, Indiana
Allen’s tenure in Bloomington looked very promising not too long ago. But after going 8-5 and 6-2 in 2019 and 2020, the Hoosiers have since finished 2-10, 4-8 and are 3-7 after a frustrating shootout loss to Illinois.
The wheels seem to have completely fallen off under Allen, and it seems ambitious to think he’ll turn it around as he sits at just 33-47 overall and 18-41 in Big Ten play since he was hired in 2016.
Allen does have one major factor working to his advantage, though: a buyout north of $20 million. This may be a Big Ten team, but that’s still a lot of money for Indiana football to drop on a buyout. Allen also seems to be well-liked, which is always nice when trying to convince your superiors to not spend millions of dollars to make you go away.
4. Mike Locksley, Maryland
Locksley is in the midst of his fifth season in College Park, and he’s achieved some moderate success as the coach of the Terrapins. But after 7-6 and 8-5 finishes the last two seasons, this team looked like it could be primed for more with one of the league’s better quarterbacks in Taulia Tagovailoa.
Instead, a loss to Ohio State once again started a spiral as the Terps lost four in a row, including ugly games against Illinois and Northwestern. The Tagovailoa window likely closes after this season, and while Locksley’s 26-29 record is respectable in the Big Ten East, I wouldn’t be stunned if this program opted for a change.
5. Dave Aranda, Baylor
Aranda was a well-traveled and successful defensive coordinator before landing the Baylor job, but some wondered how his lack of head coaching experience and calm, intellectual demeanor would play in college football in the state of Texas.
After a rough Year 1, his reputation as one of the smartest coaches in the country soared with a 12-2 season in 2021 that saw the Bears win the Big 12. That landed Aranda a massive extension amid interest from bigger jobs, but that may have been premature.
Baylor fell to 6-7 last fall and is just 3-7 in 2023. The season began with a stunning loss to Texas State in which quarterback Blake Shapen was injured and would miss several weeks. But even with Shapen’s return, this team has clear flaws.
A large buyout will likely get Aranda at least another season, though athletics director Mack Rhoades has already said on the record that offensive staff changes will be made.
6. Dana Holgersen, Houston
With Fisher on his way out in College Station, Holgorsen’s seat likely becomes the hottest in the Power Five.
It was seen as a major coup at the time when Houston, then a member of the Group of Five, managed to pull Holgorsen away from a Power Five job at West Virginia. It did so with what was basically a P5 salary, but Holgorsen hasn’t exactly returned the favor.
After losing seasons in his first two years, the Cougars went 12-2 in 2021 but regressed to 8-5 last fall. Their first season in the Big 12 hasn’t been very successful as they’re just 4-6 following a tough 10-point loss at home to Cincinnati.
This job would have a line out the door if it opened, given its location, resources and new home in the Power Five. It’s hard to imagine Houston is going to run it back with Holgorsen in 2024.
7. Justin Wilcox, California
Wilcox found some early success with a program in Cal that hasn’t seen much of it in recent years, turning in winning seasons in 2018 and 2019. Since then, however, it’s been three losing campaigns in a row, and sitting at 4-6 in 2023, that’s likely to become four.
This is an incredibly difficult job, and it’s not really clear if the Golden Bears could make a hire better the Wilcox. After all, this isn’t exactly a program that’s pouring resources into football at the moment.
However, if Cal wants to get serious about the sport ahead of its move to the ACC in 2024, I wouldn’t be stunned to see a change.
8. Jake Dickert, Washington State
It’s easy to like Dickert, who got the Washington State job under very silly circumstances following former coach Nick Rolovich’s refusal to comply with the state of Washington’s vaccine mandate, and he guided the Cougars to solid finishes in 2021 and 2022.
That plus his impassioned plea that Wazzu belongs in the Power Five after a win over Wisconsin earlier in the season certainly bought him a lot of goodwill, but the football product down the stretch has not.
Since upsetting Oregon State, Washington State has lost six games in a row including ugly losses to Arizona State, Stanford and Cal in the final three weeks. Without pulling off the unlikely feat of winning out against Colorado and Washington, this team will miss a bowl in a year that began with hopes of being a conference dark horse.
Given all the existential questions the Cougars face regarding the future of their program, they may not opt to add another in the form of a coaching search. But the future in Pullman does not look particularly bright at the moment, even compared to fellow Pac-12 leftover Oregon State.
Group of Five honorable mentions
Group of Five programs often operate with much different standards for success than their Power Five counterparts, resulting in much longer leashes. Still, moves happen, including midseason as evidenced by Boise State’s decision to fire Avalos.
Here are some Group of Five coaches who could find themselves joining him.
New Mexico’s Danny Gonzales: Gonzales has occupied the Group of Five’s hottest seat all season after the Lobos made the, frankly, surprising decision to retain him. To Gonzales’ credit, he tried an interesting tactic to turn things around, bringing in former UAB interim coach Bryant Vincent at offensive coordinator alongside his quarterback in Dillon Hopkins, but the result is currently a team that’s 3-7 as Gonzales is 10-31 overall.
Nevada’s Ken Wilson: The Wolf Pack had a coach poached by a conference rival at a higher salary, which is never a good sign for a school’s investment in football. It brought in longtime assistant Ken Wilson to run the show, but the result has been just a 4-17 record so far in two seasons.
Arkansas State’s Butch Jones: The former Tennessee coach had a rough start to his second act with the Red Wolves in his first two seasons, and while Jones’ team has taken a step forward this season, it may not be enough. Arkansas State is 5-5, and it closes the year with tough games against Texas State and Marshall. Make a bowl and Jones is probably safe. If not…
Georgia State’s Shawn Elliott: Elliott’s seat seemed pretty warm entering Year 7 after a 4-8 finish last fall, but a 4-0 start to the season seemed to wipe that away. Since then, however, the Panthers have struggled against the league’s top teams and has dropped four of the last six. Georgia State is improved, but it’s clear this team is far behind the best teams in the Sun Belt, and that may not be good enough for a promising G5 program nestled in the heart of downtown Atlanta.
