Eight newly created accounts on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket have wagered nearly $70,000 on a US–Iran ceasefire occurring before 31 March.
The sudden burst of activity has triggered widespread fears of insider trading within Washington or Tehran. These accounts appeared on 21 March and stand to collect a combined payout of $820,000 if the prediction holds. The timing is particularly suspicious as the bets were placed just before President Donald Trump publicly hinted at a military wind-down on Truth Social.
