The 2023 NFL schedule was not created equally for all teams.
While the league attempts to create compelling matchups, talent inequality between conferences and divisions mean some teams have a well-paved path to the playoffs while others will have to bushwhack their way across treacherous terrain to get there. But even if the NFL scheduling mechanism dictates six games in a division filled with Super Bowl hopefuls or four against a beefy cross-conference lineup, there’s still hope for respite. Well-timed bye weeks and stretches without star quarterbacks staring across the field at them can help buoy a team’s hopes as a contender.
This year was no different. On Thursday night I broke down the six teams who got shafted by this year’s schedule — hello, New England Patriots and New York Giants. Today I’m going to break down the six teams who owe the league’s schedule makers a cookie bouquet.
1
New York Jets
Vital stretch: the month of December
- vs. Atlanta Falcons
- vs. Houston Texans
- at Miami Dolphins
- vs. Washington Commanders
- at Cleveland Browns
Playing in the AFC East was always going to give the Jets a rough schedule. Not only do they get the Bills and Dolphins twice, but also have to face opponents from the AFC West (two playoff teams in 2022) and NFC East (three). But all things considered, Aaron Rodgers’ playoff push will have a soft landing thanks to a generous finish.
New York’s last six games of the season — the games that will likely prove the difference between a playoff spot and failure — feature exactly one 2022 postseason participant. Starting in Week 13, they’ll host the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans before traveling to Miami. From there it’s contests against the Commanders, Browns and Patriots. The stage is set for another Aaron Rodgers playoff rally. Even if this team is 4-7 two-thirds of the way into the season (or worse), don’t write off their playoff hopes.
2
Jacksonville Jaguars
Vital stretch: Weeks 16-18
- at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- vs. Carolina Panthers
- at Tennessee Titans
Playing in the AFC South was always going to give the Jags a soft schedule; they get six games against three teams in various stages of rebuilding between the Titans, Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. Their cross-conference slate this fall isn’t much better. Jacksonville gets to face all four members of 2023’s most winnable division: the NFC South.
While that means they might get a Carolina team playing for its playoff life in Week 17, it still means facing off with a division whose current starting quarterbacks look like this:
- Derek Carr
- Bryce Young
- Desmond Ridder
- Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask
Half those opponents come in the tail end of the regular season, where the Jaguars will likely have locked down an AFC South crown and are left jockeying for postseason position.
Things aren’t especially challenging earlier in the season, either. Jacksonville only has one stretch of back-to-back games against 2022 playoff teams and one of them is the Buccaneers, who’ll be led by that Mayfield/Trask duo and theoretically steering into whatever lane can land them a franchise quarterback in 2024.
3
San Francisco 49ers
Vital stretch: Weeks 15-18
- at Arizona Cardinals
- vs. Baltimore Ravens
- at Washington Commanders
- vs. Los Angeles Rams
The NFC West looks like a showdown between the Niners and the Seattle Seahawks, yet those teams aren’t scheduled to face each other after Week 14. Instead, San Francisco gets a steady diet of underwhelming teams and a home game against the one legit-looking contender it faces in the final month of the regular season.
The Cardinals are in the process of a multiple-year rebuild. The Ravens haven’t had Lamar Jackson after Week 15 in either of their past two seasons. The Commanders have a brutal schedule and may have fired Ron Rivera by Week 17 (or they could be smothering everyone in a series of 13-9 wins, who’s to say?). And the Rams are replacing nine different defensive starters and are in line to make their first first round pick since 2016. It’s too early to say definitively, but it appears at least half these teams will be better suited by losing.
The Seahawks, on the other hand, will enter the final three weeks of the season having played the Niners twice as well as the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. That gives San Francisco the opportunity to open up a sizable lead in the NFC West, then coast to a division crown.
4
Los Angeles Rams
Vital stretch: Weeks 16-18
- vs. New Orleans Saints
- at New York Giants
- at San Francisco 49ers
That’s a difficult lineup that features three teams with playoff aspirations. And that’s a good thing.
The Houston Texans remain proof a soft schedule at the end of the season can poison a tank job. Houston won two of its last three games last year to cede the top overall draft pick to the Chicago Bears. In 2021, a Week 15 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars had a similarly chilling effect to their hopes of making the first selection at the following year’s draft.
Los Angeles is likely too talented to fall into that Texans trap, pending another Matthew Stafford injury. But this team is unlikely to compete for a playoff spot after hemorrhaging talent, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. There’s a 14-man draft class ready to fill slots for a team with limited salary cap space, but only one member of that rookie squad was selected before the 77th overall pick. Those guys are going to need time to develop.
That sets up what looks to be a losing season in 2023 and an opportunity to rise up the draft ranks late in the year. The 49ers are here because they get a late-season game against the Rams. The Rams are here because it might not take much to lose that one.
5
Atlanta Falcons
Vital stretch: Weeks 5-11
- vs. Houston Texans
- vs. Washington Commanders
- at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- at Tennessee Titans
- vs. Minnesota Vikings
- at Arizona Cardinals
- bye week
We already knew Atlanta had 2023’s least challenging schedule. The team’s front office did as well, loading up with aging win-now veterans and spending the eighth overall pick on Bijan Robinson to bolster a run-first offense.
As such, the Falcons only have four games against 2022 playoff teams. Half of those come against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished last fall with a losing record and will likely be significantly worse without Tom Brady behind center. Take Tampa out of the equation and insert the Lions and Jets in its place and you’ve still got a lineup with just four teams who look like playoff contenders in Atlanta’s future.
6
Cleveland Browns
Vital stretch: Weeks 12-16
- at Denver Broncos
- at Los Angeles Rams
- vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- vs. Chicago Bears
- at Houston Texans
The schedule won’t matter if Deshaun Watson, traded north following more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the league itself described as “predatory behavior,” continues to play below-average football. His -0.042 expected points added (EPA) per play in 2022 ranked 32nd among 37 quarterbacks to play at least 200 snaps.
If he can return to form, however, there’s room for the Browns to make a playoff push as the weather gets colder. The stretch from Thanksgiving to Christmas brings four games in which Cleveland is favored and a fifth as a plucky home underdog against the Jaguars. While a Week 5 bye isn’t doing this team any favors, that late-fall stretch will give the Browns some serious momentum in a stacked AFC.
