Determining which players will over- and underperform their fantasy football draft station is annually one of the most important elements in putting together a winning roster. As the season inches closer, it’s a good time to see where players are being drafted, and how their ADP (Average Draft Position) corresponds to what they might do in 2023. With that in mind, here are five players that look well positioned to overdeliver relative to their current draft slot.
5
RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A third-round pick last year, White spent the first half of his rookie campaign seeing spot duty behind RB Leonard Fournette. That started to change around Week 9, and by season’s end he was nearly splitting snaps with the veteran. That performance down the stretch — he amassed 519 total yards over the final eight games — was enough to put him in position to be the lead back in 2023.
It’s a role that should equate to more value than it did last season, when the Buccaneers led the NFL in passing attempts (751) and were last in carries (386), as there will be a fresh focus on balancing out the offense under new coordinator Dave Canales. There isn’t a lot behind White, either, with RBs Ke’Shawn Vaughn (79 career carries) and journeyman Chase Edmonds battling for the backup job. With White showing aptitude as a pass catcher, he could be a three-down option who racks up a lot of touches for Tampa Bay this season.
4
RB Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
When the Rams won the Super Bowl following the 2021 season, their offense was dynamic. Now, there isn’t much to worry defenses outside of WR Cooper Kupp. As such, expect head coach Sean McVay to rework his playbook and start featuring Akers more frequently. We already had a taste of it toward the end of last season after quarterback Matthew Stafford was injured. Minus their field general, McVay leaned on Akers, who carried the ball 104 times for 512 yards (4.9 YPC) and six TDs over the final six games — he also caught a dozen passes during that stretch.
Look for McVay to call Akers’ number early and often again in 2023. LA has no commitment to the former Seminole beyond this year, so there’s no reason to watch his workload. To that same point, Akers should be highly motivated to show he can be a legitimate No. 1 back before his initial foray into free agency. Akers has flashed potential over his young career, but he’s never sustained, so there is some concern. Still, there’s top-20 upside here, maybe even top-15 if he continues to see increased involvement in the passing game.
3
WR Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Everyone knows about Johnson’s TD drought in 2022 when he set the NFL record for most catches in a season without scoring. While it’s a dubious milestone to be sure, somehow that statistical anomaly has created the idea that Johnson is nothing more than a fringe low-end WR3, which isn’t based on reality. The fifth-year pro caught 15 touchdown passes over the previous two seasons combined, and he finished seventh in the NFL last year in targets (147) and 15th in receptions (86).
Johnson isn’t a big-play threat, that’s true, but he’s a steady possession receiver and remains the likely first read on many snaps for QB Kenny Pickett, who should be more comfortable in his second year after being heavily managed as a rookie. While Johnson may not match his 2021 production (107-1,161-8) when he was a borderline WR1, he’s capable of rebounding toward WR2 status this year.
2
WR Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers
Given how strongly WR Christian Watson finished last season, it’s easy to understand why the speedy wideout is the second-year receiver fantasy owners are zeroed in on in Titletown. That being said, it’s important to remember it was Doubs who shined during training camp last year and was off to the strong start in his debut campaign before suffering a high ankle sprain against the Detroit Lions in Week 9. In the eight games before the injury, Doubs had a 30-296-3 line compared to Watson’s 8-64-0.
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Granted, Doubs can’t match Watson’s downfield speed, but with quarterback Jordan Love taking over we could see more judicious use of the deep ball with the first-year starter instead focused on intermediate and short routes, especially in the early going. Reports indicate Doubs has once again starred in camp, and more than one has referred to him as WR1 with many of his one-on-one reps coming against All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander. His weekly ceiling may not be as high as Watson, but Doubs might deliver better full-season numbers from much later in drafts.
1
TE Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
While he was a disappointment last year, Schultz is only one season removed from catching 78 passes for 808 yards and eight touchdowns; that’s TE1 production by any definition. Prior to that, he reportedly passed on a contract extension from the Dallas Cowboys, which didn’t work out as he was met with a tepid response in free agency and had to settle for a one-year deal with the Texans. That provides plenty of motivation, however, as Schultz would love to reset his market with a strong showing in Houston.
It could happen. Rookie QB C.J. Stroud is more of a pocket passer, and he should do a lot of checking down to the reliable tight end. Perhaps more importantly, Texans receivers are a largely anonymous bunch, meaning that Schultz might be the only tight end in the NFL not named Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews to serve as his club’s de facto primary receiver. Other than them and Minnesota Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson, there aren’t a lot of definitively better options at the position than Schultz, who has a pretty high floor and an even higher ceiling.
