The Minnesota Vikings are set for a tough battle against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.
When looking at these two teams, they couldn’t have had a more different start to the season. The 49ers sit at 5-1 with their only loss on the road against the Cleveland Browns and the Vikings are 2-4 with their only wins coming on the road against the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears.
They do have one thing in common: their only wins against the spread came when they also won the game.
Going into Monday night’s game, there are still reasons to be optimistic for the Vikings.
The Vikings have never lost the first four home games in a season
The Vikings have started 0-3 at home for the fifth time in their storied history. The last time they did that was in 2020. One thing the Vikings have never done is lose their first four games at home. With the 49ers coming to town, that could change, but history could easily repeat itself on Monday night.
The offensive line is affording the offense opportunities
The offense has been rather disappointing this season. They have yet to score more than 30 points and have 15 three-and-outs on the year. One reason why they haven’t been successful for once isn’t the offensive line.
On the season, the offensive line is first in the league in run blocking grade and third in pass blocking grade per PFF. They are giving the Vikings chances in many ways, but the performance of the offensive line isn’t the problem. Going against a 49ers defensive line that has a lot of talent isn’t as concerning when you have a good offensive line.
Brock Purdy can be stopped
The 49ers offense is a juggernaut. Outside of some rain in Cleveland last week, it’s difficult to find a weakness. One area that they can exploit is running man coverage.
In those situations against the Browns, Brock Purdy was only 6/19 for 51 yards. The Vikings haven’t run a ton of man coverage this season. Per Sports Info Solutions, the Vikings have ran man coverage only 34 times this season or 15% of their defensive snaps (30th in NFL). If they run man coverage more often against the 49ers, it could be a recipe to stop their passing game.
Outside of Trent Williams, the offensive line can be exploited
The 49ers have been known to have good offensive lines, but this isn’t one of them. Trent Williams is still an elite player, but even he is dealing with an ankle injury.
Williams grades out as Pro Football Focus’ fifth-best tackle out of 74, but the rest of the line is in the bottom 50th percentile at their position at best.
- LG Aaron Banks: 72/79
- C Jake Brendel: 25/39
- RG Spencer Burford: 64/79
- RT Colton McKivitz: 51/74
The Vikings bring pressure more than any team in the National Football League and could provide major issues for a sub-par unit like the 49ers.
A loss can still help the team
No matter how the game ends, the result will help the Vikings. If they win, the Vikings move to 3-4 and stay at worst within a game of a wild card spot. That is the optimal result for the 2023 season.
If they lose, it keeps the Vikings within reach of a potential top quarterback in the 2024 NFL draft. That result is one that many fans want to see because the Vikings have lacked a true franchise quarterback since Fran Tarkenton with Daunte Culpepper being the one that was close before injuries hampered his career.
