The Kansas City Chiefs like to drag teams into deep water and drown them. The Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs offense leads the NFL in scoring and that’s enough to win more often than not, despite a defense that ranks below the league average.
For the Jacksonville Jaguars to spring the upset, they’ll have to avoid getting pulled into the shootout they’re probably ill-equipped to win against the Chiefs.
But for bettors, that kind of game means opportunity. The Jaguars and Chiefs are likely to stuff the box score with stats and that makes for a lot of player props hitting the over.
Here are five player prop picks from Tipico Sportsbook for what could turn into a high-scoring duel at Arrowhead Stadium:
Trevor Lawrence - Over 23.5 completions
Lawrence completed at least 24 passes in four out of the first five weeks of the 2022 season. Then came a streak of three straight games with no more than 22 completions.
The emergence of Travis Etienne played into that trio of games, but Lawrence also had some woefully inefficient days before bouncing back with a 25-of-31 showing last week against the Raiders.
Against a Chiefs defense that is 24th against the pass and has allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL, Lawrence could easily carry that momentum into Week 10. Getting to 24 completions will be especially probable if the Chiefs are racking up points and forcing the Jaguars to play keep up.
Trevor Lawrence - Over 16.5 rushing yards
Lawrence was a talented runner at Clemson and showed off his legs a bit as a rookie, but somewhere along the way, the Jaguars’ young quarterback stopped running.
Through the first four games of the 2022 season, Lawrence had only 29 rushing yards. Then something switched and Lawrence ran for 52 yards and two touchdowns in Weeks 5 and 6.
During the Jaguars’ Week 9 win against the Raiders, Lawrence had 53 rushing yards on six attempts.
It’d be surprising if Lawrence and Jaguars coaches pulled the plug on what has quickly emerged as an effective weapon for the Jacksonville offense. Expect Lawrence to take off a few times and have plenty of opportunities to eclipse 17 rushing yards.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Over 22.5 rushing yards
A 23-yard game really isn’t much for a starting running back who is averaging 36.6 yards per game this year and 52.0 yards over the course of his career.
Edwards-Helaire has had a tendency to disappear, though. He had zero yards on seven attempts against the Colts in Week 3 and only five yards on four carries last week against the Titans.
That’s why there’s such a low total for Sunday when Edwards-Helaire faces a Jaguars defense that allows the third fewest rushing yards per attempt.
Jacksonville’s defense is far from run-proof, though. The Eagles and Giants both eclipsed 200 rushing yards against the Jaguars. While the Chiefs, as always, will lean Patrick Mahomes, Edwards-Helaire will get the ball at least a handful of times and it won’t take much against the Jaguars’ nickel defense to get a couple dozen yards.
Christian Kirk - Anytime touchdown
While no team has allowed more passing touchdowns than the Chiefs, the Kansas City pass defense isn’t exactly inept.
The Chiefs have recorded 22 sacks with a blitz-heavy approach and rookie cornerback Trent McDuffie looks worth the first-round pick that was used on him in April.
The Jaguars would be wise to stick to quick passing and they might have a hard time connecting with outside receivers like Zay Jones or Marvin Jones. That could mean a lot of opportunities for Christian Kirk, who has a team-leading five touchdown receptions.
Kirk has been a red zone favorite for Lawrence as none of his five touchdowns this year came from any further than 10 yards out. Against a Chiefs defense that has allowed 70.4 percent of opposing red zone trips to turn into touchdowns, Kirk’s odds of getting in the end zone look pretty good.
Travis Kelce - Over 79.5 receiving yards
Kelce has recorded more than 90 receiving yards in four of his last five games. Will the Jaguars be the one to shut Kelce down? Probably not.
While the Jaguars have a rising star on the outside in cornerback Tyson Campbell, the middle of the passing defense has been susceptible. The Colts spent one whole game utilizing a game plan that felt like the same exact play — a Michael Pittman Jr. crossing route — was called 50 times straight.
Linebackers Devin Lloyd and Foye Oluokun haven’t shown enough in coverage to inspire hope that they’ll shut down Kelce, and the Jaguars may be down a safety with Rayshawn Jenkins dealing with a concussion.
The Jaguars will undoubtedly put their defensive focus into slowing Kelce, but keeping him under 80 yards will be very tough.
