Saturday night’s Screen Actors Guild Awards recognized plenty of talented and deserving actors with honors, but it also helped us get as definitive a look at the 2024 Oscar race as we’ve gotten so far.
The Academy Awards are in two weeks, and everything points to Christopher Nolan’s historical epic Oppenheimer winning plenty of trophies for the evening.
The film won three of the five major film awards, including best cast, best lead actor for Cillian Murphy and best supporting actor for Robert Downey Jr. It’s feeling more and more like it’s the film to beat at the moment in multiple categories.
We’ve gathered five key takeaways for the 2024 Oscars, including where we really don’t have a clear winner settled in the acting categories.
Oppenheimer looks like a Best Picture winner to us
You’d have to go back to 2012’s Argo to find a movie that won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture (Drama), the BAFTA for Best Film, the Directors Guild of America’s feature directing award, the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Picture and the Screen Actors Guild’s ensemble award.
Only Slumdog Millionaire (2008) and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003) have accomplished the same sweep since 2000.
Oppenheimer joins those three films in that incredibly difficult feat, with a Best Picture win at the Academy Awards in about two weeks feeling like a slam dunk at the moment.
Christopher Nolan has to be feeling great to see his film so well-positioned, as his long-awaited Best Director Oscar feels like a sure thing right now, too.
The Zone of Interest has been gaining a late push of momentum, so keep an eye on it. But, for now, Oppenheimer feels like it’s closing in on history.
Cillian Murphy officially took the lead in Best Actor
Murphy and The Holdovers‘ Paul Giamatti had been the two favorites for Best Actor at the Oscars leading up to the SAG Awards, but Murphy became the frontrunner after taking home the SAG for lead actor.
The actors have never shied away from recognizing their peers when they portray real-life figures, and Murphy looks to join the long list of actors who have won the Oscar for playing a real person. Giamatti isn’t down and out just yet, but like the film he’s in, Murphy has the all the momentum.
Best Actress will be Oscar night's big competition
After Emma Stone won the BAFTA for Poor Things, it looked like she might do the same at Saturday’s SAG Awards. However, Killers of the Flower Moon‘s Lily Gladstone earned the lead actress honor instead to go along with her win at the Golden Globes (where she did not compete with Stone).
It’s really hard to say right now who has the best chances right now, but Gladstone’s victory and heartfelt speech will certainly be on the minds of the Academy voters in the room before final ballots are due on Tuesday.
While the other three acting races feel like they’re closing down, Best Actress remains up in the air. It really could be either Gladstone or Stone at this point.
Robert Downey Jr. is going to win his first Oscar for Oppenheimer
After a stellar career in show business that now encompasses four decades, Downey Jr. is going to win his first Oscar in Best Supporting Actor for Oppenheimer. Make no bones about it; this race is pretty much over, and Saturday’s SAG win for Downey Jr. cemented that.
With his charismatic persona always lighting up the room at various awards shows this season and the breadth of his storied career leaning in, Downey Jr. will need to get that Oscar trophy case ready for March 10. Barring an absolute, all-time upset, he’s winning.
Ditto for Da'Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers
Like Downey Jr., Randolph has been sweeping through the awards season and looks poised to win Best Supporting Actress after winning in the same category at the 2024 SAG Awards.
No one else has really stood a chance this season, as Randolph’s deeply moving performance in The Holdovers looks like that film’s clearest path to an Oscar next month.
Like Downey Jr., it’s time for Randolph to get her Oscar speech ready. Barring a shocking upset, she’s going to take home the gold.
