We had an exciting opening weekend in the opening rounds of March Madness, and several prospects significantly helped their draft stock.
NBA players are selected based on their full resume and body of work and not just their most recent games on the court. But it never hurts to play well under the bright lights of the men’s NCAA tournament.
Based on the first two rounds of the Big Dance, these were some of the most notable players who made the best cases for themselves thus far (and don’t forget to check out our mock draft from before the tourney).
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1
Jarace Walker (Houston)
Houston’s Jarace Walker is headed to the Sweet Sixteen, and he is providing tremendous value for his program.
The freshman had a big game in the Round of 32 with 10 rebounds, 6 blocks, and 2 steals during a crucial victory over Auburn. Opponents are shooting 2-for-15 (13.3 percent) on jumpers in the tournament when he is credited as the nearest defender, per Synergy, and 1-for-5 (20.0 percent) around the basket.
He doesn’t the ball in his hand to help his team win, but he has helped a bit on offense. During the first round, he helped defeat Northern Kentucky’s zone defense by scoring on simple cuts to the basket. But in the Round of 32, he hit an excellent 3-pointer after an off-ball screen, he attempted a couple of pick-and-pop jumpers, and he scored against Auburn’s press defense.
After relatively underwhelming or inconsistent performances from other lottery-bound freshmen in the tournament, Walker has already made a solid case for why he should be one of the first college players to hear his name called in the 2023 NBA Draft.
Walker was already a projected lottery pick, but he might be a top-5 pick.
2
Amari Bailey (UCLA)
Former McDonald’s All-American and consensus five-star recruit Amari Bailey had a breakout performance against UNC Asheville during the opening round of the NCAA tournament.
He finished the victory with 17 points, 4 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals. Bailey recorded a game-high 10 “good” possessions, per ShotQuality, the second-most he had ever finished with during his NCAA career thus far.
The freshman had eight layups during the contest, mostly finishing in transition. He leads the tournament in total fast break points scored (13), per CBB Analytics.
UCLA played with a quicker pace (64.8) during the 48 possessions Bailey played relative to the 13 possessions (53.6) he did not, via Pivot Analysis.
Bailey followed that performance predominantly with spot-up possessions as a catch-and-shoot threat against Northwestern, finishing with 14 points (5-7 FG, 2-2 3P) in another crucial victory. He played well on the defensive end of the floor, too, and is looking like a first-rounder.
3
Dariq Whitehead (Duke)
The Blue Devils were eliminated in the Round of 32, which was a breakout performance from Duke’s Tyrese Proctor, but scouts ought to be encouraged by what they saw from freshman Dariq Whitehead.
Whitehead, a high school star named Naismith Prep Player of the Year and Mr. Basketball USA, had an underwhelming freshman campaign. He finished the season averaging just 8.3 points, but as his offensive role has evolved, he should walk away proud of his most recent stretch.
After suffering from foot and leg injuries in 2022-23, Whitehead struggled to draw contact, dunk, or finish efficiently at the rim.
As such, Opponents could play Whitehead tight on the perimeter because he wasn’t a threat to blow by them. 28.0 percent of his offensive touches ended in an opposing closeout, per AI-Powered statistics provided by Stats Perform. That was the second-most among consensus top 100 prospects with multiple games of tracking data available.
But for a league that covets shooting, he finished the season shooting 42.9 percent on 3-pointers and showcased that elite touch during the tournament.
Whitehead was an excellent 4-for-5 (80.0 percent) on his guarded catch-and-shoot jumpers while playing in March Madness. He needs to create his own shot more often, but his shooting gravity will help his NBA draft stock.
4
Donovan Clingan (UConn)
UConn’s Donovan Clingan isn’t even starting for the Huskies, and he may decide to play another year of college basketball before turning pro.
But he is someone who grades out well analytically, ranking No. 18 overall on a stat-based draft model provided by ESPN’s Kevin Pelton. The reason is his efficiency.
Clingan combined for zero bad possessions against Iona and Saint Mary’s, per ShotQuality. He has had a diversified scoring attack during the tourney and got on the board by getting buckets running the floor in transition, rolling to the rim in the pick-and-roll, cutting to the basket, and getting to the free-throw line.
On the other end of the floor is where he provided the most value.
Opponents scored just 0.62 points per chance when he was the nearest defender during the regular season, per AI-Powered statistics provided by Stats Perform. That was the fifth-best among consensus top 100 prospects with multiple games of tracking data available.
UConn has allowed 66.1 points per 100 possessions during the 42 possessions Clingan played during the opening weekend. They allowed 111.3 points per 100 in the 80.9 possessions he did not play, per Pivot Analysis, which is a staggering difference.
His performance in the catch-all metric box plus-minus (29.8) ranks second-best among all players in March Madness. His defensive box plus-minus (21.1), defensive rebound rate (55.7), defensive rating (65.3) and block percentage (21.1) lead all players.
5
Jalen Slawson (Furman)
These rankings would feel incomplete without including Furman’s Jalen Slawson, a mid-major standout who was one of the biggest breakout stars of the tournament.
Slawson, who wrote on his shoes that “you ain’t come this far to only come this far” and had the best reaction to Virginia’s shocking turnover, pulled off one of the biggest upsets in the tournament, highlighted by a personal 9-0 run against UVA.
San Diego State chose to press more often against Slawson, which led to multiple turnovers and poor possessions. Still, although he wasn’t able to get it done in the Round of 32, it’s time to take Slawson seriously as a future NBA player.
He is one of just eight players since 2008 with more than 100 dunks and 3-pointers while in college. No other player was able to do so with a higher true shooting percentage than Slawson. While older than most other draftable prospects, Slawson will likely find his way onto an NBA court sooner rather than later.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Trayce Jackson-Davis (Indiana)
Mike Miles (TCU)
Ryan Kalkbrenner (Creighton)
Oso Ighodaro (Marquette)
Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Marquette)
Kobe Brown (Missouri)
Dylan Disu (Texas)
