If we’re being polite about it, the preseason polls across college sports are typically nothing more than educated guesses.
Experts like to think they know what a team is going to look like when it takes the field, but until schools face actual competition, there’s no way to know. Games aren’t played on paper.
That’s starting to hit home this week for a lot of teams — and we’re not even talking about Florida, LSU or Clemson (yet). After Weeks 0 and 1, there are at least five fanbases who likely aren’t feeling as confident in their “soft” schedules anymore.
Let’s sort through them.
Missouri Tigers
This is not a knock on Mizzou at all. The Tigers looked pretty solid in their Week 1 victory over Murray State. We saw the expected fireworks from Brady Cook and Luther Burden before the back-ups polished off the 51-0 win. But there’s no question the Tigers’ schedule looks significantly more difficult today than it did a week ago. Week 2 against Buffalo shouldn’t be a challenge, but Mizzou follows that up with games against Boston College, at Vanderbilt and at Texas A&M — two teams who stunned their opponents in Week 1 and another in the Aggies who don’t look too far away from becoming a player in the SEC.
Those games were supposed to be the tune-up portion of the calendar for the Tigers before a pivotal two-game stretch at Alabama and versus Oklahoma at the end of October. No one is brushing off those early matchups now. In fact, they might be some of the more interesting Power 4 games of the next month.
Florida State
This one is pretty obvious, but let’s go over it again, anyways.
Florida State went undefeated in the regular season last year before quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending injury. That kept FSU out of the College Football Playoff. Folks in Tallahassee went scorched Earth and joined Clemson in begging the courts to let them leave the ACC for supposed greener pastures. Then, after spending all offseason trashing their conference and retooling its roster, No. 10 Florida State opens the season with a concerning loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland before an absolute meltdown at home against Boston College — two of the least consistently competitive schools in the ACC.
You think it’s bad now? Up next is a matchup with Memphis — FSU coach Mike Norvell’s former program — followed by Cal, SMU, Clemson, Duke, Miami (FL), UNC and Notre Dame.
North Carolina may be without starting quarterback Max Johnson for the rest of the year, but they still have Mack Brown as head coach and a talented backfield led by Omarion Hampton. There are no more gimmies for Florida State. Apparently there weren’t any to begin with. As for a regular season finale against Florida? Well, perhaps this sums it up best:
Huge interim coach/competing for bowl eligibility vibes. pic.twitter.com/zBo1p3NBWM
— Adam Kramer (@KegsnEggs) September 3, 2024
Michigan State Spartans
Do not, under any circumstances, bet the over on Michigan State.
New Spartans head coach Jonathan Smith may get this program turned around sooner than later, but that doesn’t mean Year 1 is going to feel any better than last year’s disaster did. While Smith works on building the foundation in East Lansing, the Spartans schedule won’t do them any favors.
What seemed like mildly concerning road trips to Boston College and Illinois when the MSU schedule was released now appear much more daunting. That’s to say nothing of home games against Rutgers, Purdue and Indiana.
At least the Spartans get Prairie Valley A&M in Week 3.
Virginia Tech Hokies
The popular ACC sleeper pick this August is deep in a REM cycle after a loss to *checks notes…checks notes again* Vanderbilt.
The Hokies never really got their offense in gear — and we’ve seen enough of quarterback Kyron Drones in the past to know he’s for real — so the question is more about whether or not Virginia Tech can avoid dooming itself with slow starts again.
They’ll have prime opportunities to prove the Vandy loss was a fluke against Marshall and Old Dominion. But any lingering struggles could become much larger problems when the schedule picks up against Rutgers, Miami (FL), Boston College, Georgia Tech and Clemson.
Oregon Ducks
Let’s assume the first game of the Dillon Gabriel Era in Oregon won’t be the norm. The preseason Heisman favorite put up 380 yards and two touchdowns during a mostly meh debut for the rest of the Ducks in a 24-14 victory over Idaho.
If that’s what it’s going to take the Ducks’ offense to put away an FCS team in Autzen Stadium, what’s going to happen when they face teams like Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Purdue?
But let’s be honest, the schedule itself is less concerning on paper than the reality of the situation. Oregon has one of the most punishing travel schedules of any team in the country, having to fly a combined 6,277 miles. If the Ducks can’t be counted on to put away teams at home, this year is going to get very, very challenging.
