More than 2 in 5 Americans say a U.S. civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next decade, highlighting the deepening political divisions in the country heading into the midterms.
A recent poll by YouGov and The Economist found that 43% believe a civil war was either “very” or “somewhat likely.” People who identified as “strong Republicans” were the most likely to anticipate a conflict. One in 3 of total respondents said it’s not very or at all likely, and 22% are unsure.
“Polarization right now is at the highest level in decades, if not going all the way back to the civil war,” Thomas Gift, director of the University College London’s Center on U.S. Politics said in an interview. But he urged caution interpreting the data; he noted this type of conflict doesn’t typically break out in wealthy, democratic countries and it’s unclear what respondents imagine when they think of a “civil war.”
