It might be a little cringe going around the table and naming what you’re thankful for, but there’s nothing wrong with showing a little gratitude – no matter what the circumstances. That’s certainly the case for the Seattle Seahawks and their fans as they head into the holiday with a 6-4 record and a grip on the NFC’s last playoff seed. Heading into this season most projections put them no higher than six wins for the whole year, so happiness about the team’s situation should come naturally.
Here are four things for Seattle fans to feel grateful for this year on Thanksgiving.
1
Geno Smith keeps the ball rolling at QB
If you claimed to see this remarkable progression by Geno Smith coming, you’re lying. Smith was placed on the bottom end of most QB rankings going into this season – we didn’t see him any higher than No. 20 at any outlet. Fast forward a couple months and Smith has established himself as one of the game’s best quarterbacks in an extremely rare late-career progression that’s brought on comparisons to Hall of Famer Kurt Warner.
By now you’ve seen Smith throwing incredibly accurate balls – he still leads the NFL in completion percentage – and showing a willingness to test defenses deep – he’s the league leader in touchdown passes on throws of 20 yards or more. While his game isn’t perfect, Smith is playing like an elite pocket passer and has also demonstrated a flair for making plays on the run. His age (he’s 32) will bring on questions about how long he can keep this up, but right now the Seahawks’ plan should be to extend him and make him their QB1 for the foreseeable future. That doesn’t necessarily preclude them from picking from a ripe quarterback class in the 2023 draft, but the numbers show that Smith’s success is sustainable and he should be the team’s starter Week 1 next year.
That means another very quick turnaround transitioning from one franchise quarterback to another – not even as long as the one-year layoff Seattle got between Matt Hasselbeck’s exit and Russell Wilson’s arrival. Add it all up and Seahawks have suffered only one year (2011) without a quality starter since the millenium. Only the Packers have enjoyed more sustained success at the game’s most important position over the last 20 years.
2
Avoiding Russell Wilson's nose-dive
Speaking of franchise quarterbacks, the Seahawks have also managed to avoide one of the worst regressions at the position that we’ve seen in the modern era.
When Seattle traded Russell Wilson to the Broncos, it looked like they were giving up a proven star and MVP candidate. While the haul they got in return was good, if that was true then Denver would rightfully have won the deal in an absolute fleecing. Turns out, Pete Carroll and John Schneider jettisoned Wilson at the exact right time.
While nine games is hardly a huge sample size, Wilson’s struggles with the Broncos have officially reached shocking levels. He’s playing by far the worst ball of his life and at the moment the massive contract extension he signed this offseason looks like the biggest albatross in the NFL.
For the season Wilson is 3-6 as a starter with just seven touchdown passes, five picks, a 59.5% completion rate, a 32.4 QBR and an 83.3 passer rating – all by far career lows for a guy who was playing at an MVP level just two years ago. He still has time, but it’s difficult to see Wilson turning things around – especially with a head coach that seems to be in way over his head.
If you put Geno’s rise and Wilson’s fall together, this team essentially side-stepped a landmine and ended up in a pot of gold.
3
A friendly stretch run on the schedule
The Seahawks have been on the road a lot lately, including a 10-hour flight to Munich and back again. Good news: their legs are now fresh after the bye week and their home-field advantage is about to come roaring back. Of the seven remaining games on the team’s regular season schedule, five are at home and only one comes against a real threat – the 49ers in Week 15.
As long as the key pieces stay healthy, we’re projecting the Seahawks will finish the year either 10-7 or 11-6 – which should be enough for a wild card spot. Coming into this year nobody thought they’d be in this position and the unexpected success accelerates their retooling, not rebuilding timeline.
Put it another way, this team playing with house money. Whatever else happens the rest of this season, it’s clear they are not far from contending.
4
The greatest draft class of all time?
Watching Smith thrive, Russ fail and Seattle have a real chance at a playoff run have all been enjoyable. However, the greatest thrill for fans this year has been the stunning early returns from the 2022 NFL draft class.
The former gold standard was set by Seattle in 2012 when they got Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner and Brue Irvin with their first three picks – essentially netting a Pro Bowl QB, a GOAT linebacker and a quality starter on the edge. In 2017 the Saints won the silver medal by netting a superb shutdown cornerback in Marshon Lattimore, an elite right tackle with Ryan Ramczyk, an excellent safety in Marcus Williams and a superstar runninng back with Alvin Kamara – netting four great starters in one class.
Most teams are happy to get two starters in one draft – making New Orleans’ haul the most impressive quantity-wise and Seattle’s the best by quality.
While it’s still too early to determine if the Seahawks have any future Hall of Famers in this group, it’s already clear that they’ve gotten at least five exceptional starters in this class – perhaps even six once Boye Mafe becomes a full-timer.
They also got the talent where it counts – primarily at two premium positions. Left tackle and right tackle are arguably the most important spots on offense after quarterback and Seattle got two potential 10-year bookends there with Abe Lucas and Charles Cross. Cornerback is the game’s most difficult spot and the Seahawks have an early All-Pro candidate in Tariq Woolen and a very-promising slot guy in Coby Bryant.
At running back Ken Walker’s game is a bit hit or miss so far – but his home-run ability puts his ceiling as high as it gets at his position. Mafe has also shown a great deal of potential in his time on the field (he’s played 39% of the team’s defensive snaps so far).
There’s still time to determine exactly how good this group is, but right now it looks like one of – if not the best draft class of all time.
