For the first time this season, the Tennessee Titans (1-2) finally broke into the win column after defeating the Las Vegas Raiders (0-3), 24-22.
This victory gives the Titans legitimate hope again. A Week 3 loss to the Raiders would have sent them to 0-3, which ultimately would have been the worst record in the league by the end of the weekend.
Instead, the Titans join a cluster of teams who are within one game of each at 1-2 and 2-1. After last Sunday’s hard fought win, Tennessee is now just one victory away from reaching .500 again after a dismal 0-2 start to the year.
But before we move on to Week 4, all season long we’ve been reviewing the advanced metrics from several different platforms and reflecting on what’s stood out the most.
Also, prior to going into all of that, we just wanted to give a quick reminder that this article will be using updated advanced metrics from Pro Football Focus (PFF), Next Gen Stats, ESPN, RBSDM, and Sports Info Solutions (SIS).
Some of the verbiages can be a bit confusing at times, so I am also linking to a glossary in this article that contains any elaborate definitions that readers may need to know.
Now, lets take a closer look at the four major takeaways from the advanced stats following the Titans’ first victory of the season.
Tennessee’s second-half offense is a legitimate problem
One of the more frustrating developments of this young season has been the Titans’ second-half struggles.
Tennessee hasn’t scored a single point in the second half in two straight games and has been outscored 57-7 in the final two quarters overall this season.
Luckily for the Titans, they were able to survive their recent lackluster second half and still walk away with a 24-22 victory over the Raiders.
The Titans were by far the best offense in the 1st half of yesterday’s games…then dropped to 28th for the 2nd half.
This offense has shown much more promise than the 2021 team imo. Just have to turn those flashes into consistent play. pic.twitter.com/qbJslITn4v
— Nick Lombardi (@NF_Lombardi) September 26, 2022
These second-half issues go much deeper than just the blown leads on the scoreboard, though.
According to RBSDM, the Titans are the second-most efficient first-half offense in the league. Tennessee’s EPA per play in the first two quarters of games is 0.237 — a whopping .054 points higher than the next closest offense (Baltimore Ravens).
As a matter of fact, the Titans and Philadelphia Eagles are the only two offenses that are producing an EPA per play of at least 0.200 during the first two quarters of games.
Tennessee also ranks in the top-10 in first-half success rate (50.6 percent), dropback EPA (.380), dropback success rate (53.8 percent), and rushing success rate (45.9 percent).
Unfortunately, things take a massive turn for the worst after halftime. The Titans go from being the second-most efficient offense before the half to the least efficient offense after the break.
Tennessee’s EPA per play drops all the way down to -0.365, which is not only the worst in the league, but they’re the only offense that is producing an EPA of -0.3 or worse.
The Titans also rank in the bottom five in second-half success rate (38.4 percent), dropback EPA (-0.242), rushing EPA (-0.505), and rushing success rate (30 percent).
Another area of concern that stands out when reviewing the SIS data is the fact that Ryan Tannehill’s passer rating drops an average of 57 points after halftime. The Texas native has a first-half passer rating of 109.0, but that passer rating falls in the second half to a measly 52.0.
Also, when using SIS’ Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR) metric, Tannehill’s first-half IQR of 105.8 plummets all the way down to 57.0.
The Titans’ quarterback isn’t the only one who has a sizable fall-off in production after the intermission. Derrick Henry is averaging nearly two yards less per carry from the first half to the second.
The superstar running back has produced 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 31 first-half carries (4.2 YPC). However, that production drastically drops once the second half begins.
Throughout the first three games, Henry only totaled 60 rushing yards on 23 second-half rush attempts (2.6 YPC) — a difference of 1.6 yards per carry between the two halves.
In order for this Titans offense to reach its full potential, they have to start putting efficient games together for four quarters.
The Titans have held a sizable lead going into halftime in two of their three games, yet they ended up taking their foot off the gas pedal and it nearly costed them both times.
At least Tennessee was able to hang on to the win against Las Vegas, but they must do a better job at remaining efficient, consistent, and aggressive for the entire game.
This week is a crucial divisional matchup between the two preseason favorites to win the AFC South. Needless to say, this would be the ideal time for the Titans to put together a complete game offensively in order to build some momentum as we start to approach the midseason mark.
Signs of life from the Titans’ pass catchers
After a lackluster first two weeks, the Titans are finally starting to see signs of a possible breakthrough with their passing attack.
Robert Woods is the savvy veteran of the group who is starting to look healthier and more explosive with each passing week. Last Sunday, Woods set new season-highs after nine targets were thrown his way, four of which were considered “catchable”.
The California native caught all four of them for a total of 85 yards (21.2 YPC).
Also, the USC product recorded a first down on three of those four catches.
Creating first downs has been a consistent aspect of Woods’ game throughout the year. Bobby Trees has produced a first down on approximately 66.7 percent of his receptions (6-of-9).
As far as Titans rookie Treylon Burks goes, he didn’t have the increased target share we all had hoped for. Nonetheless, he is still making positive strides every week, especially when it comes to his snap counts.
Treylon Burks through 3 weeks…
Snap%:
37%->45%->69%Route Participation:
38%->61%->96%Targets:
5->6->2That 96% RR is 🔥
Bigger things ahead!
— Drew Davenport (@DrewDavenportFF) September 26, 2022
Despite the limited playing time, the rookie wideout currently ranks second on the team in nearly every major statistic, such as targets (13), receptions (eight), yardage (115) and yards after the catch (54).
Dontrell Hilliard is another weapon who has been a pleasant surprise in the passing game. Over the two games that he’s played in this year, the Tulane product has produced 91 receiving yards and two touchdowns on four receptions.
Hilliard’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield has been a valuable weapon in the passing game and it’s something Tennessee will likely continue to utilize going forward.
The Titans are also starting to see more contributions from the likes of Austin Hooper and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Kyle Philips will step right back into the lineup once he’s returned from his shoulder injury as well.
This team needs their high-paid veteran receiver and their first-round rookie to flourish as the weeks progress in order for this group to truly maximize its talents.
Derrick Henry is slowly starting to look like himself again
This was only one game against the eventual 0-3 Raiders, but Derrick Henry looked every bit like the superstar running back that we all know he truly is.
The run-blocking not only visibly improved, but Henry was much more decisive with his decision-making, and he ran with angry intentions anytime he touched the ball.
Henry broke a total of 10 tackles on the day and produced well over 60 yards after contact, per SIS. This number is significant because, according to ESPN (via NFL.com), the Titans are 19-3 when Henry has at least 60 rushing yards after contact.
Historically speaking, a high number of rushing yards after contact by a Henry-led offense often correlates to a worn-out defense by the time the fourth quarter rolls around.
In total, the King accounted for 143 yards (85 rushing, 58 receiving) and one touchdown on 24 touches in Week 3.
This game was definitely a step in the right direction, but the star running back undoubtedly still has plenty of room for improvement.
Henry still hasn’t eclipsed the 100-yard mark on the ground, and as we noted earlier in this article, he still needs to put together an adequate four-quarter performance in order for this offense to truly reach its ceiling.
Considering the trajectory Henry’s currently on, don’t be shocked if the mammoth running back has his breakout game in the very near future.
Tennessee’s pass rush has legitimate potential once healthy
According to SIS, the Titans currently account for the seventh-most pressures in the NFL (48), however, those pressures aren’t translating into sacks nearly as much as Tennessee would like.
Sack leaders for the #Titans after Week 3:
Rashad Weaver- 3
Jeffery Simmons- 2
Denico Autry- 1
Bud Dupree- 1— Titans247 (@NFL_Titans247) September 26, 2022
As a team, they’ve only recorded seven sacks on the year, largely because injuries have already challenged the depth of this group.
When this Titans team is at its best, it has four capable defenders who can harass the opposing quarterback by applying consistent pressure from all angles without having to frequently blitz.
When only rushing four, the 2021 #Titans ranked (playoffs Included):
•1st in sacks per game (2.4)
•2nd in sack percentage (23.9%)
•2nd in solo sacks (39)
•2nd in combined sacks (43)
•T-3 in Batted Passes (8)
•T-5 in forced fumbles (9)
•6th in pressures (212)#SavageSZN 🔜 pic.twitter.com/DUczRsoxSt— Shaun Calderon (@ShaunMichaels31) August 5, 2022
Back in Week 1 when Jeffery Simmons, Denico Autry, Bud Dupree, and Rashad Weaver were all healthy, they accounted for 16 pressures and five sacks, per SIS.
Since then, the team has only accounted for two sacks in two games despite recording a handful of pressures over those contests.
The biggest difference is the fact that Tennessee’s defensive front now had one less capable defender (Dupree), which often creates an opening somewhere whenever pressure finally arrives.
Most quarterbacks these days are athletic enough to slide away and/or escape pressure from one loose defender, but real havoc is created when a defense has multiple pass rushers winning throughout the same rep.
This is something the Titans frequently excelled at during the 2021 season, and it’s something they’re occasionally flashing through three games even after losing someone like Harold Landry for the entire 2022 season.
Weaver in particular is the one who is seizing the opportunity that’s in front of him. The Pittsburgh product has significantly increased his role in the defense and is taking a massive step forward in his second season.
He currently leads the Titans in sacks (three) while also recording the second-most quarterback pressures (10) on the team.
Rashad Weaver is looking REALLY good.
Now the #Titans just need Bud Dupree to get healthy ASAP.It truly is a shame that we aren’t going to see a pass rush rotation that features Harold Landry, Bud Dupree, and Rashad Weaver in 2022 https://t.co/HvJe83ZUFt
— Shaun Calderon (@ShaunMichaels31) September 26, 2022
Simmons is the obvious star of the group. He not only eats up double teams to free up his teammates, but he has proven that he’s more than capable of single-handedly beating multiple blockers to make the play himself.
Jeffery Simmons swipes the hands aways & gets the strip sack. Have a pass rush plan! #passrush #titans pic.twitter.com/nsq3um2ZtJ
— DLineVids (@dlinevids1) September 15, 2022
The former Mississippi State star currently ranks second on the team in sacks (two) while also leading the team in pressures (13). Then you have Dupree and Autry, who may only have one sack each this year, but the two of them have been a nuisance whenever they’re out there.
Bud Dupree (@Bud_Dupree) goes speed to power & walks his blocker back into Josh Allen! #passrush #titans pic.twitter.com/j9o6dePXyA
— DLineVids (@dlinevids1) September 20, 2022
According to Next Gen Stats, in Dupree’s lone full game of the season, he averaged the shortest distance on the team between a pass-rusher and the opposing quarterback on a down-by-down basis (3.37 yards of separation).
The next shortest distance on the year was Autry’s Week 3 performance against the Raiders, where he averaged 3.67 yards of separation from himself and the opposing quarterback at the time of the throw — the shortest average out of both teams.
Denico Autry is sick lol pic.twitter.com/tKeBJt64JO
— JP Acosta (@acosta32_jp) September 26, 2022
In fact, Autry, Simmons, and Weaver all finished last Sunday’s game well below the league average of 4.53 yards of distance between the rusher and the opposing quarterback at the time of the throw (or sack).
The next step towards once again becoming a dominant pass-rush unit is finishing these pressures and turning them into sacks. For that to happen, they need Dupree to not only get healthy, but they need him, along with everyone else, to remain healthy as well.
If Tennessee is able to keep those four defenders together and healthy for the rest of the year, the defense should be able to successfully get after the quarterback and make up for loss of Landry.
Dupree’s health status for Week 4 is still up in the air, so be on the lookout for any updates throughout the week, with the first one coming on Wednesday in Tennessee’s first injury report of the week.
