The odds of getting a perfect bracket in the NCAA tournament are so long that it’s practically impossible to do.
One of the things that makes it so hard is predicting all of the inevitable upsets. We know they’re going to happen. Oddsmakers know it too — there will always be Cinderellas. We just don’t know which teams fit the glass slipper yet.
So, let me preface everything to follow by saying, I don’t know either. Now that that’s out the way, these are my best bets for a first-round upset in each region. Please note, if the spread wasn’t at least more than a single bucket, I didn’t consider the game for an upset, regardless of seeds.
South Region: No. 13 Furman over No. 4 Virginia
We know Virginia is going to bring it defensively, but one thing Furman can do is score. The Paladins averaged 82 points this season, so if they catch fire, look out.
Senior guard and leading scorer Mike Bothwell won’t wilt under Virginia’s defensive pressure, and they have the size and experience on the wings to keep up with a Virginia squad that will miss Ben Vander Plas.
East Region: No. 12 Oral Roberts over No. 5 Duke
It’s been a weird season for the Blue Devils, who recently returned to the AP rankings after seven weeks off. I just wonder how much they’ll overlook a team like Oral Roberts after cruising through the ACC tournament.
Oral Roberts is another team that can catch fire offensively, and the Golden Eagles can match the size of Duke’s Kyle Filipowski with their own seven-footer, Connor Vanover. Senior guard Max Abmas facilitates the offense while getting plenty of his own buckets.
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Midwest Region: No. 11 Mississippi State/Pittsburgh over No. 6 Iowa State
OK, so this is a weird one, I know. How can I pick an upset before even knowing the matchup?
If you read my five bets to avoid this tournament, then you know at least one First Four at-large team has advanced to the second round of every tournament except one. I’m guessing that team will come from this game.
Not only am I just unimpressed with Iowa State lately, but I also like how both Mississippi State and Pittsburgh match up with the Cyclones. Once we know the matchup and spread, this might not even be the upset I’m projecting it to be.
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West Region: No. 13 Iona over No. 4 UConn
UConn was one of the hottest teams in basketball before a close semifinal loss to Marquette in the Big East tournament. So this is less about the Huskies and more about Iona.
The Gaels are riding a 14-game winning streak, and they just play a really balanced game on both sides of the ball. They defend the paint, they’re efficient on offense and they also have an experienced roster to boot. I don’t think they’ll be intimidated by Connecticut.
