The Buffalo Bills came into opening night of the 2022 NFL regular season as Super Bowl 57 favorites. Nothing they did in a 31-10 win over the defending champion Los Angeles Rams suggested otherwise.
Josh Allen overcame a handful of early mistakes as Buffalo turned a 10-10 halftime tie into a three touchdown victory on the road. The Bills turned the ball over three times in the first half and it merely cast the impression they were a bored housecat toying with their food.
The Rams, hamstrung by a swarming Bills defense, were powerless after halftime. In the final 30 minutes, their longest non-garbage time drive covered all of 25 yards.
How’s this going to affect each team going forward? Well, Los Angeles has to be a little concerned about its passing game. Buffalo, uh, does not.
Ken Dorsey's offense is a solid fit for Josh Allen
Allen lost the offensive coordinator who guided him to greatness when Brian Daboll left to take the head coaching job with the New York Giants. That turned playcalling duties over to Dorsey, the former Miami Hurricane who’d spent the last nine years as an NFL QBs coach — including the last three in Buffalo.
This put heavy pressure on Dorsey’s shoulders for the season opener. He responded by reassuring the NFL his Bills’ offense wasn’t going to suffer a dropoff. Allen completed 16 of his first 18 passes to begin the game, and while there was an interception in the mix it was the result of an Isaiah McKenzie drop. Dorsey also drew up the first touchdown of the 2022 NFL season to a wide open Gabriel Davis, immediately justifying his fantasy hype:
The first touchdown of the 2022 NFL Season!
📺: @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/2GpvRlvcLX
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 9, 2022
Allen’s second interception was much more his fault — a situation in which Jamison Crowder was open, but the QB held the ball one second too long, allowing Troy Hill to create a problem:
TALK T(W)O HIM NICE.
2️⃣ @thrilll_32 | 📺 @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/wnoSWbVQk2
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) September 9, 2022
This wasn’t a gameplan problem; it was an execution one. And when the Bills offense was executing as planned, it was deadly. You’ve probably seen Allen’s second half deep balls by now if you’re here. Instead let’s look at Stefon Diggs sending Jalen Ramsey into the phantom zone before a perfect back-shoulder third down throw.
oh my god Jalen Ramsey's gonna be sick pic.twitter.com/c3Th44Btw4
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 9, 2022
It’s not especially difficult to drop the planets in place when your solar system revolves around the binary stars of Allen and Diggs. But Dorsey was put to the test following three first half turnovers, stuck to the plan, and watched as his offense came together. His quarterback, once a boom-or-bust totem, made the right reads, checked down at the right moments and hit his targets in short order while finding time to absolutely mash some Rams defenders.
Josh Allen plays football like one of his parents was a Ford F150 pic.twitter.com/2KNIdQoP2U
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 9, 2022
Allen finished his day with 353 total yards, four touchdowns and 9.6 yards per pass despite the pair of early interceptions. That’s a great way for Dorsey show the world why his Bills are such massive Super Bowl favorites there’s hardly any value in betting them.
Matthew Stafford's elbow sure looks like a problem, even if the Rams are planning against it.
The Rams came into 2022 as defending champions and with a stacked roster. That left the rest of the league to invent concerns in the service of a fatal flaw.
There were worries about the departures of Von Miller and Darious Williams. Worries about whether Allen Robinson, finally free of mediocre-to-awful quarterbacking for the first time since high school, could thrive alongside Cooper Kupp. But the biggest concern was Stafford’s limited workload amidst reports of elbow discomfort and offseason procedures.
Reports out of Los Angeles suggested he was ready to go and had no limitations headed into Week 1. The results on the field did not back this up.
The vertical hallmarks of Sean McVay’s passing offense were conspicuously absent against the Bills upper crust defense. Only one of Stafford’s first nine passes traveled more than 10 yards downfield and that was the result of a time-buying scramble and Kupp’s ability to evade coverage downfield for a 23-yard gain. First-year coordinator Liam Coen’s gameplan relied heavily on designed rollouts that led to short passes and modest gains.
i believe the Bills have caught wise to the Rams' designed roll-out plan pic.twitter.com/xXUT3w2PIH
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 9, 2022
It was a little unusual to see a quarterback who’d run for 43 yards in 17 games the season prior escaping the pocket and making throws. It’s a little concerning as well; why shift to a rollout heavy scheme with a 34-year-old quarterback when it wasn’t necessary the year you won a Super Bowl? Is it a function of an offensive line breaking in a shaky new left tackle and the threat of crashed pockets?
Or is it because Stafford’s throws downfield aren’t quite up to his normal standard yet?
This wasn’t always the case. Stafford had his share of solid tosses. He threw a beautiful dart to Robinson for the former Bear’s first reception as a Ram (his only catch of the night). But the arm talent that defined his career was inconsistent in his 2022 debut. Passes that had been lasers in years past wobbled.
As the Bills figured this out, head coach Sean McDermott devised a plan to limit the impact of his rollouts and keep the focus on the pocket. He completed just two of his seven throws 15+ yards downfield. He averaged fewer than six yards per pass attempt. 11 of his final 16 completions gained eight yards or fewer.
Stafford dealt with static in the pocket. He failed to overcome it. He failed to run around it.
This wouldn’t have been as big a problem if Los Angeles could have supplemented that with effective runs, but the Rams averaged just 2.9 yards per carry — 2.0 even if you discount a second quarter 18-yard run from Darrell Henderson. This all painted one very ugly picture and took a hatchet to LA’s early title hopes.
Nah, it's not time to worry about the Bills' passing defense yet
Buffalo had so few glaring weaknesses coming into 2022 that bettors hammered their Super Bowl odds to the point where they weren’t even worth betting. The one minor area of concern came in the secondary, where All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White continued his rehab from a torn ACL, former starter Levi Wallace was replaced by first round rookie Kaiir Elam and All-Pro safety duo Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde both ventured into their 30s.
They’d be put to the test in Week 1 against the reigning champs. They passed.
Warning signs persisted, but there was no fatal flaw in the aerial defense against a potent passing game. Cooper Kupp did Cooper Kupp things (more on that later) but Buffalo largely stifled Stafford. And hit him a bunch, because Von Miller apparently does not age.
On the seventh play of the game, NBC aired a highlight showing new Rams left tackle Joe Noteboom keeping Stafford’s pocket clean, raising questions about Miller’s burst. Exactly one play later, Miller did this to Noteboom:
Straight-up bully stuff. Miller’s ability to crumple the pocket forced third and long and stopped a budding Rams drive in its tracks. Two quarters later, Noteboom braced for a Miller speed rush by moving seven steps to his left before the Bills’ linebacker got to him … and then barely got his hands on him en route to another drive-killing sack:
.@VonMiller is on pace for a million* sacks with the Bills.
(don't fact check this*)
📺: #BUFvsLAR on NBC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/LlxLdqcZb3 pic.twitter.com/mzjprgfz4b— NFL (@NFL) September 9, 2022
The Bills are paying $20 million annually, on average, for this. Through one game, it looks like a bargain. That pass rush got to Stafford seven times. That’s a beautiful formula to stifle the AFC’s dynamic passing offenses this fall.
Cooper Kupp is still THAT GUY
Kupp had six catches for 48 yards and a touchdown. In the first 27 minutes of the season.
It was obvious the reigning Offensive Player of the Year was the focal point of a Rams team that struggled to run the ball or generate any consistent downfield passing game. Despite this, the Bills and their 2021 top-ranked defense flailed when tasked with stopping him.
Kupp was the clear target on a second quarter fourth-and-2 when Stafford hit him with a screen, then watched as his top wideout dragged a cache of Bills defenders beyond the line to gain. Three plays later, Elam passed him along to 2021 All-Pro Poyer in coverage. It did not help one bit:
Cooper Kupp getting 3 feet in for fun pic.twitter.com/4wp4cBazvS
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 9, 2022
Later, with the game no longer on the line, Kupp showed off the run-after-catch skills that can help soften the blow of the Rams’ sudden lack of downfield passing:
There was a stark difference in Stafford’s passing game when he targeted his WR huckleberry and when he didn’t. To wit:
- Matthew Stafford when targeting Kupp: 13-15, 128 yards, 8.5 yards/attempt, 1 TD, 1 INT, 96.7 passer rating
- Matthew Stafford when targeting anyone else: 16-26, 112 yards, 4.3 yards/attempt, 0 TD, 2 INTS, 39.3 passer rating
That’s great news for Kupp. Not so much for the rest of the Rams, but if you’ve got him in fantasy, well … hooray?
