Every week in “4-Down Territory,” Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Luke Easterling of Bucs Wire and Draft Wire go over the things you need to know about, and the things you need to watch, in the NFL right now. With Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season in the books, there was a lot to cover!
This week, Doug and Luke discuss:
00:00 – How can the Dolphins fix Tua Tagovailoa’s December struggles?
(Note: This episode was filmed before it was revealed that Tagovailoa reported concussion symptoms after Miami’s loss to the Green Bay Packers last Sunday).
06:00 – Are we to the point where Bill Belichick is running out of ideas?
10:02 – What’s been the problem for Tom Brady and the Bucs this season?
15:00 – Between the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Cincinnati Bengals, which team looks most primed to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVII?
You can watch this week’s episode of “4-Down Territory” right here.
What's wrong with Tua Tagovailoa?
(Note: After we taped the show, it was revealed that Tua Tagovailoa reported concussion symptoms following a tackle in the first half of the Packers game. Tagovailoa is now in the NFL’s concussion protocol).
From opening week through the end of November, Tua Tagovailoa of the Dolphins was one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, and a legitimate MVP candidate. He completed 198 of 284 passes for 2,564 yards, 19 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 115.7. But in his four December games, Tagovailoa completed 61 of 116 passes for 984 yards, six touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 80.5. The Dolphins have lost their last four games, and while Tagovailoa had struggled throughout that time, Sunday’s loss to the Packers, in which he threw interceptions on three straight fourth-quarter drives, was the nadir of the whole thing. This was especially odd after Tagovailoa lit it up in the first half against Green Bay. It’s obvious that the Dolphins have a quarterback problem right now. How do they fix it?
Doug: Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. That’s the famous Mike Tyson quote. Well, Tua has been punched in the mouth over and over in Miami’s last four games. Defenses have figured out how to funnel Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle where the defenses want them to go. They’re dropping and matching over the middle to take away his reads there. Tua isn’t getting the easy, defined looks he got in the first few months of the season, and that showed up in the disastrous fourth quarter against the Packers. He’s pressing. He’s either throwing far too early or far too late, and to the wrong spot far too often.
It reminds me of what Josh Allen went through in 2020. He came out ridiculous with 12 touchdowns and one interception in his first four games, and Brian Daboll was dialing up all kinds of man-beaters. Then, defenses started to give him weird zone looks and coverage switches, and his head exploded. So, Daboll brought it back to basics. Take the checkdown unless the big play is there, Build it back up. It obviously worked. Allen was in his third NFL season then, just like Tagovailoa is now. The best thing head coach and offensive shot-caller Mike McDaniel can do is to scale back the deep shots, rely a bit more on a good run game to open things up downfield, and let Tua get his feet back under him. Right now, I think he’s still looking for that plan after getting punched in the mouth.
Luke: Yeah, that game against the Packers was the perfect microcosm of this entire four-game stretch, right? The incredible highs (plenty of big plays, the long TD to Waddle, etc.), and just the massive, head-scratching lows. All of those fourth-quarter interceptions, just begging the Packers to beat them, and giving Aaron Rodgers chance after chance. And it was at home, while the rest of the country was freezing their collective tails off. I still believe in Tua’s long-term upside, and he’s still giving us too many great moments not to believe he can be their franchise guy. He needs to be that guy more consistently, but I do think he deserves a bit of patience while he gets there, even though it’s frustrating for a Dolphins team trying to hang on to a postseason berth.
Why isn't Bill Belichick thinking outside the box?
Speaking of floundering AFC East teams, there’s the Patriots, who have lost four of their last five games. It’s obvious that the offensive brain trust of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge was a bad idea, as neither man had any real experience building an offense at the NFL level. Now, there are reports that Bill Belichick may bring Bill O’Brien, who was his offensive coordinator in 2011 after a stint as an offensive assistant and quarterbacks coach, back into the fold. It’s weird to say this about the most innovative coach in NFL history, but are we to the point where Bill Belichick is running out of ideas on that side of the ball?
Doug: You have to think about it. I know that Belichick wants his coaches to understand both sides of the ball. He will move guys from offense to defense all the time. But this is the first time I’ve seen him just throw a couple of guys into that milieu without a second thought. I don’t know how much juice there is behind the O’Brien rumors, but the fact that it’s easy to believe says something.
It is obvious that the Patriots need to move on from Patricia and Judge in those particular jobs, and it’s disconcerting to me that he recently said that it’s too hard to make that switch in-season. Not what you want to hear from the most adaptable NFL coach we’ve ever seen. Beyond that… yeah. I’d like to see Belichick go with some no-name, more modern, offensive genius who could put a spark in an offense that desperately needs it. It’s something I think he would have done a long time ago had he not had the benefit of Josh McDaniels for so many years.
Luke: I think we have to acknowledge that sometimes, just hiring “your guys” is a terrible idea. Sure, Belichick had familiarity with both of these coaches, but he would have been much better off giving them the whole Nick Saban, “defensive analyst” kind of title instead of handing these guys the entire offense. I mean, what exactly did he expect? Would it really have been that hard to convince a promising coordinator candidate from elsewhere to come run an innovative, creative scheme knowing that Belichick’s defense would be the safety net? The NFL’s cronyism problem goes far beyond New England, but this is just one of many examples of why it’s not good for the game.
Why can't the Buccaneers give Tom Brady what he needs to succeed?
The Patriots are now 24-24 since Tom Brady decided to go his own way after the 2019 season. Not that things are much better for Brady in Tampa these days. The Buccaneers did beat the Cardinals in overtime on Sunday night to raise their record to 7-8, but Brady is now looking at the only losing season he’s ever had in the NFL. The closest he’d ever come before was the Patriots’ 9-7 record in 2002. What’s most frustrating is that there are times when Tampa Bay’s offense looks great in spurts, and then, it just falls apart. What’s been the problem for Brady and the Bucs this season?
Doug: Here’s what I don’t get. Tom Brady has been much better this season when given at least one of these three things: Play-action, pre-snap motion, and a no-huddle offense. But Brady has the most non-play-action dropbacks in the NFL this season, they’re not using motion nearly enough, and though he has the most no-huddle dropbacks in the NFL this season by far, about half of them come in the fourth quarter, after the static stuff hasn’t worked. For whatever reason, the Bucs want to lean into the NFL’s worst run game, and a bunch of quick outs, until there’s nothing left to do but give Brady what works best for him. I will never understand coaches who are reticent to give their quarterbacks the most favorable possible game plans for their own skill sets.
And the thing about this is, it’s the same thing that happened in Brady’s first season in Tampa. Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich wanted to run things their way, and after the bye, they figured out that it would be better to run things Brady’s way. With Arians still around in an advisory role, and Leftwich still the team’s offensive coordinator, how can you make this mistake again? Especially with Tom Brady?
Luke: You know how closely I watch this team, so you’d assume I might have an answer for you here, but I just don’t. They’re one of the NFL’s best teams when running play-action, yet few teams run it less frequently. I think the two-minute offense looks so good by comparison because the general scheme is boring and uncreative, and this year is proving that it just doesn’t work without an elite offensive line.
They can’t sustain a consistent ground game, Leftwich still buys the tired old myth about needing an effective run game before you can “set up” play-action, and they still haven’t adjusted the passing concepts to account for what they’ve lost in the trenches. This has led to Brady getting rid of the ball too early because he’s got no confidence in the line, missing deeper shots he might have had. He’s also just downright missing too many easy throws, and his chemistry with Mike Evans has completely disappeared for some reason. I don’t know who should get the lion’s share of the blame here, but frankly, I don’t care. There’s too much talent on this offense for it to continue to perform so poorly.
Are the Bengals the NFL's most dangerous team?
Moving back to the AFC, and the three teams at the top of the standings – the 12-3 Bills, the 12-3 Chiefs, and the 11-4 Bengals. The schedule makers are going to help with clarity here as the Bills travel to Cincinnati for Monday Night Football, but if you had to take one of these three teams to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVII, which team would be that choice?
Doug: Right now, the team I’m most afraid of if I’m playing them is the Bengals, and that might go for the entire NFL, and not just the AFC. They’ve won seven straight games, and while we already know about that offense, it’s past time to talk about the Bengals’ defense. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo seems to have answers for every offense the Bengals face – from dropping eight and rushing three at an accelerated rate to smart blitzes and coverage switches. And Burrow is playing like an absolute ninja. The Chiefs are great, Patrick Mahomes is the probably MVP, and the defense is pretty good. The Bills’ offense is not consistent at all right now. I think the Bengals might be the NFL’s best team at this moment. .
Luke: I agree completely, and it’s partly because I might pick the Chiefs, if not for the fact that Cincy continues to be their Kryptonite. Burrow is playing MVP football this year, he’s got his best weapons healthy again, and their defense is playing their best ball at the right time of year. They’re scary, man.
