Now that the NFL’s legal tampering period has begun, it’s time for 4 Down Territory’s hosts Kyle Madson of Niners Wire, and Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar to discuss a couple of hot topics, including:
00:00 – Is this gamesmanship, or does it rise to the level of collusion against Lamar Jackson?
05:29 – Which hypothetical player/team pairing would you find most intriguing, and why?
09:18 – Which free agent’s loss would be felt most keenly by its old team?
13:36 – Name of one under-the-radar free agent who could have a massive effect on his next team?
You can watch this week’s episode of “4-Down Territory” right here!
Does the Lamar Jackson situation rise to the level of collusion?
One of the most interesting stories of the upcoming league year is the Baltimore Ravens placing the non-exclusive franchise tag on Lamar Jackson, and seemingly every quarterback-needy NFL team saying out loud that they’re not interested in giving up the two first-round picks and massive new contract it would take to acquire Jackson and keep him happy. That so many teams have said outright that they will not pursue Jackson… is this gamesmanship, or does it rise to the level of collusion?
Doug: Regarding collusion – a deceitful agreement or secret cooperation between two or more parties to limit open competition – it’s naive to assume that the NFL is not above it. From 1934 through 1945, the NFL’s owners colluded to ensure that no player of color would play for any team. Owners colluded for decades to prevent open free agency. Owners and the league colluded to prevent the honest data and information regarding head trauma. NFL teams colluded to create an artificial salary cap in the uncapped lockout year of 2010. And there’s the whole Colin Kaepernick thing. So, you could say that pro football has been built on collusion throughout its history.
Here’s what we know. The Cleveland Browns’ decision to give Deshaun Watson a fully-guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract was met with horror among the NFL’s other owners – not because of the things Watson did off the field, but for the precedent it set. Lamar Jackson has publicly expressed serious interest in a similar contract, and I think there’s a very real possibility that the NFL has stepped into the fray and simply insisted that this kind of guaranteed contract lasting more than one or two years isn’t going to happen. Not for Lamar Jackson, and not for anybody else. To assume that there isn’t collusion just because collusion is bad is naïve, given the league’s history.
Kyle: I understand if someone wants to take the gamesmanship angle – teams don’t want to show their hand for free agency or the draft. But the fact so many teams came out so strongly against it make it seem like a concerted effort to avoid letting the ball roll down the long-term fully-guaranteed contract hill. At some point there’s going to be a reckoning with this where the Watson deal won’t be such a massive outlier, but until then I expect teams to do everything they can to avoid going down that path – up to and concluding collusion.
Which player/team match would be the most interesting via free agency?
We’re taping this at the start of the NFL’s fabulous illegal tampering period, so it’s time to talk free agency. Which hypothetical player/team pairing would you find most intriguing, and why?
Doug: Were I the Jacksonville Jaguars, and I had a team that finished 9-8 and made it to the divisional round of the playoffs despite a defense that finished 30th in DVOA against the pass, I’d be going all out for former Panthers, Giants, and Eagles cornerback James Bradberry. We all remember Bradberry’s defensive holding call that set up the Chiefs’ game-winning field goal in Super Bowl LVII, but Bradberry was one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks last season.
Per Pro Football Focus, Bradberry allowed 46 catches on 96 targets for 489 yards, 159 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, four interceptions, 12 pass breakups, and an opponent quarterback rating of 51.8., And by the way, he had just three penalties all season long. Bradberry is a scheme-versatile cornerback who would make that defense all kinds of better right away, and that defense really needs it.
Kyle: Jimmy Garoppolo has dominated my life since 2017, so I’m getting one last take in here. Garoppolo would be fascinating to watch with the Raiders. I’ve watched every snap this guy has played and I have no hard opinions an whether he’s good in a vacuum or if he’s been a product of his environment in San Francisco. I think he’s a capable NFL starter, but his career arc would change dramatically if he steps into a team like Las Vegas and plays well under old friend Josh McDaniels. Putting him in an offense with Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow and Josh Jacobs would give him plenty of tools to succeed. But can Garoppolo function outside of Kyle Shanahan’s system? And can a team win with him at QB without an elite defense? Those are two questions I’m dying to have answered.
(Note: Garoppolo did indeed get a three-year, $67.5 million deal with the Raiders).
Which free agent loss would most negatively affect that player's former team?
Correspondingly, which free agent’s loss would be felt most keenly by its old team, and that team should do whatever it takes to get the player back?
Doug: I’ll go with Eagles defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, who’s the No. 1 player on our free agency ranking list. Philadelphia got Hargrave on a three-year, $39 million deal in 2020, and that turned out to be a real steal. Last season, Hargrave has 12 sacks, six quarterback hits, 48 quarterback hurries, and 36 stops. But Hargrave’s effect on the Eagles’ defense went beyond his own stats – it’s how the Eagles’ defense changed when he wasn’t on the field. Per Sports Info Solutions, Hargrave was on the field for 649 snaps and off the field for 363. When he was on the field. The Eagles’ pressure rate went from 33.3% to 37.8%, their sack rate went from 8.4% to 12.0%, their yards per attempt allowed went from 5.4 through 4.7, and the opponent rushing touchdown rate went from 5.1% to 3.4%. You could argue that Hargrave has as massive an effect as any defensive tackle in the league in 2022, and if the Eagles lose him, he’s not so easily replaceable.
(Hargrave got a four-year, $84 million deal from the 49ers as Doug was going through his spiel, so there you go).
Kyle: Dang, I was gonna say Hargrave. He’s gonna transform whatever defensive line he winds up on. The one I’ll point to is the Bengals and safety Jessie Bates. I loved him out of Wake Forest in 2018 and he’s just been a consistently really good player in the back end of an underrated defense. Not only is he good in coverage, but he’s maybe the best run-stuffing safety in the league. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo can line Bates up anywhere on the field, and replacing that type of chess piece isn’t going to be super easy either through free agency or the draft.
(The Falcons gave Bates a four-year, $64.02 million deal, and we’d love to know why the $.02 million is in there).
Which underrated free agent should be more over the radar than he currently is?
Doug: Chargers linebacker Drue Tranquill is one of the more interesting players in this free agent class. A fourth-round pick out of Notre Dame in 2019, Tranquill didn’t really find a full-time starting role until last season, but when Kyzir White left for the Eagles in free agency, Tranquill became the main man in the middle of Brandon Staley’s defense. He responded magnificently, with five sacks, 15 total pressures, 105 tackles, 53 stops, and he’s proven able to cover speed tight ends up the seam, and do crazy stuff like bumping Tyreek Hill at the line of scrimmage and getting away with it. Give this guy $10 million per year, put him in the middle of YOUR defense, and that’s one less thing you have to worry about for the next few seasons.
Kyle: I was gonna pander to you and say Poona Ford, but I’m going with Raiders TE Foster Moreau. He’s been in Darren Waller’s shadow the last few years, but he still managed to churn out 91 catches for 1,100 yards and 12 touchdowns in 61 games. In the last 2 years in 13 games without Waller in the lineup he posted 41 catches for 490 yards and three touchdowns. He profiles well athletically and I think he’s a breakout season waiting to happen once he steps into a better situation as some team’s TE1.
