Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the league, in order of projected 2023 win totals. Up next: the Dolphins.
Few teams enter the 2023 season with higher expectations than the Dolphins. Simultaneously, none have a bigger question.
Miami earned a wild-card berth last year and took the second-seeded Bills to the brink, despite having to start third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson. Now, with Tua Tagovailoa healthy once more, the concern is whether the Dolphins’ starter can avoid another concussion after being diagnosed with two (and likely having a third) last season.
If Tagovailoa’s health isn’t a problem, the Dolphins have legitimate Super Bowl dreams. They made a splash in March by trading for former All-Pro corner Jalen Ramsey, bringing in the former Rams star to partner with Pro Bowler Xavien Howard on the perimeter. The defense also has a new coordinator in Vic Fangio, which is perhaps the most underrated addition of the offseason.
Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports (left); Gregory Fisher/USA TODAY Sports (center); Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports (right)
With Fangio, Miami should see a significant jump after finishing 18th in defense a year ago. And if Tagovailoa can stay upright, he has arguably the best receiver tandem in football with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the outside.
All told, the Dolphins are a threat to make a deep playoff run, even if they have to traverse the brutal AFC East to do it.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Not upgrading at backup quarterback
Last year, the Dolphins were without Tagovailoa for five games, including their playoff loss in Buffalo. While it’s tough to argue general manager Chris Grier should have re-signed the oft-injured Teddy Bridgewater, the position of backup quarterback in Miami seems underfunded.
With Bridgewater gone, the Dolphins signed former Jets backup Mike White to compete with Thompson. White has started seven games in his career (he has eight appearances) and thrown eight touchdowns against 12 interceptions. Not exactly the answer for a title contender if Tagovailoa has to miss time.
This winter, Grier could have earmarked money to try to land Andy Dalton, Taylor Heinicke or Gardner Minshew, all quarterbacks with far more experience and upside. In the cases of Dalton and Heinicke, both are former starters who have been in playoff games.
Instead, Miami is relying on the combination of Thompson and White. It’s risky and bordering on reckless.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 1 to 4
The Dolphins will be tested right out of the gate in 2023. Miami opens with three road games in four weeks, including a Week 1 date against the Chargers at SoFi Stadium. The following week, it’s off to Foxborough for a Sunday night affair against Bill Belichick and the Patriots.
In Week 3, Miami hosts the remodeled Broncos before another divisional road game, this time in Orchard Park, N.Y., to square off with the Bills. It’s an opportunity for the Dolphins to get rolling in the tough AFC East, with all their home tilts remaining, but there’s also the risk of falling behind.
Breakout player to watch: LB Jaelan Phillips
Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports
The Dolphins sent a first-round pick to the Broncos last October for edge rusher Bradley Chubb before signing him to a $110 million extension. However, don’t forget about the man on the other side.
Phillips has 15.5 sacks through his first two seasons. At 6'5" and 265 pounds, he has ideal size to anchor against the run while also being agile enough to get around the edge or bully the tackle with a power move.
As a rookie, Phillips played only 54% of defensive snaps before seeing that number increase to 73% in 2022. Don’t be surprised if it rises once more, and Phillips cracks the double-digit plateau.
Watch Dolphins games live with fuboTV: Start a free trial today!
Position of strength: Receiver
The Dolphins have a few position groups to pick from, but it’s impossible to overlook the wideouts.
Hill finished second to only Justin Jefferson last season in receiving yards and receptions while checking in at third with 170 targets. In seven years, Hill has made the Pro Bowl seven times while earning four first-team All-Pro berths.
As for Waddle, he totaled 1,356 yards in 2022, seventh in the league. Of players who ranked second in receiving on their teams, he was 160 yards better than anybody else. Entering his third campaign, Waddle has a chance to become an All-Pro.
Position of weakness: Offensive line
Miami’s front wall isn’t bad, but it has some weak points along with a major injury risk.
Left tackle Terron Armstead came over from New Orleans last offseason on a five-year deal, despite missing 48 games over nine seasons with the Saints. In 2022, Armstead missed four more contests while playing injured at times.
Beyond Armstead’s durability, there are questions at right tackle with Austin Jackson. A 2020 first-round pick, Jackson’s play has been relatively disappointing. He was limited to two games last year with an ankle injury.
Considering the fragility of Tagovailoa’s situation, having serious concerns about both tackles is quite worrisome.
X-factor: What does Ramsey have left?
This might seem like an odd question. Ramsey is 28 years old and is coming off his sixth consecutive Pro Bowl season. But there was chatter that Ramsey wasn’t the same for the Rams in 2022, a season that will go down as one of the worst title defenses.
Still, it seems Ramsey is an elite player on the boundary. In 2022, Pro Football Focus rated his as the league’s third-best corner. Now joining Fangio’s scheme, the cornerback should have a few more All-Pro–caliber seasons in him, giving Miami one of the best secondaries in football.
Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports
If that’s the case, giving up a third-round pick and tight end Hunter Long before giving Ramsey $30.5 million in new guarantees is a terrific gamble.
Sleeper/fantasy pick: RB Devon Achane
Mike McDaniel was thrilled to land Achane. While the Dolphins have a crowded backfield with Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, the rookie could etch out his own role, much like that of Darren Sproles during his salad days. I’d look to land Achane as a No. 4 fantasy back in reception-friendly leagues. —Michael Fabiano, SI Fantasy
Best bet: Take the under on Tagovailoa’s 3950.5 passing yards
Unfortunately, there are too many risk factors to take the over here, despite the capabilities of Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. Another concussion could easily derail the quarterback for the season, and Hill’s legal situation is still in question. Tagovailoa has yet to exceed this prop in a single NFL season. —Jennifer Piacenti, SI Betting
