Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the league, in order of projected 2023 win totals. Up next: the Chiefs.
For the Chiefs, this upcoming season is less about a singular campaign and more about their broader place in history.
Kansas City is the defending champion for the second time in four years. The Chiefs are also looking to reach their fourth Super Bowl in five seasons, which has never been done in NFL history, save for the 1990–93 Bills, who lost in all four trips.
Led by reigning MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City is the odds-on favorite to win another ring (+550). Despite the Chiefs’ trading away All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill before last season, Mahomes posted a career-high 5,250 passing yards, along with 41 touchdowns. In the playoffs, he bested Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts on one good ankle, propelling Kansas City to glory.
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports (left); Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports (center); Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports (right)
Now, the Chiefs bring back largely the same team, headlined by the offense but with an underrated defense as well.
Despite six rookies playing significant snaps on the unit, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s group ranked 12th last season. Considering some of those youngsters, like edge rusher George Karlaftis and corner Trent McDuffie, will likely take further steps this year after playing well in 2022, Kansas City is a well-rounded, well-oiled machine.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Swapping out Patrick Mahomes’s tackles
After winning a Super Bowl with Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie working as the left and right tackles, respectively, the Chiefs decided to go in another direction this offseason.
Despite negotiations with Brown’s camp, Kansas City moved on and signed Jawaan Taylor to a four-year, $80 million deal. The original thought was to play Taylor at left tackle; however, general manager Brett Veach decided to keep him on the right side (where he played with the Jaguars), signing veteran Donovan Smith to protect Mahomes’s blindside instead.
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It’s a big risk, as Smith struggled mightily last year for the Buccaneers. While it’s true he battled through serious thumb and elbow injuries in 2022, it’s also true Smith has long taken too many penalties: He has amassed 59 over eight seasons, including 29 holding calls. By comparison, Brown has only seven holding calls to his name across five campaigns.
There’s a chance the Chiefs upgraded on both sides, but there’s also a reality where Smith doesn’t bounce back and Taylor has a difficult time adjusting to Mahomes’s unique brand of play.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 11 to 14
The Chiefs’ toughest stretch will come out of their Week 10 bye.
After getting back from Germany following a game with the Dolphins, Kansas City comes off a week of rest to host the Eagles on Monday night in a Super Bowl rematch. Then, it’s a two-game road trip starting with the Raiders in Las Vegas, where the Chiefs have yet to lose.
Next, they’re up against the Packers on Sunday night at Lambeau Field in a December game that promises cold temperatures. Finally, Kansas City comes home to welcome in the Bills for a third straight year.
Breakout player to watch: CB Trent McDuffie
McDuffie was a key cog in Kansas City’s defense last year, but entering his second season, he is primed to become a national name.
Patrick Breen/The Republic/USA TODAY Network
As a rookie, McDuffie was limited to 14 games (including playoffs) after injuring his hamstring in Week 1 against the Cardinals. However, when active, McDuffie never played fewer than 95% of the defensive snaps, including eight tilts where he never came off the field. He earned a grade of 73.6 from Pro Football Focus.
McDuffie, a 2022 first-round pick, is part of a young Kansas City secondary that will play four corners and a safety on their rookie deals. He may eventually outshine them all.
Position of strength: Quarterback
Let’s not get cute here. Mahomes is the league’s best quarterback, a two-time MVP who at 27 years old might still be ascending.
Just how great is Mahomes? Historically, the comparisons are already absurd. The only players to ever win multiple Super Bowls, multiple Super Bowl MVPs and multiple regular-season MVPs? Joe Montana, Tom Brady and Mahomes.
Furthermore, Mahomes’s stats are jarring. In five seasons as a starter, he has thrown for 192 touchdowns against 48 interceptions, while amassing a pair of 5,000-yard seasons. He’s also made the Pro Bowl in each campaign.
Simply put, Mahomes is the biggest advantage in football.
Position of weakness: Wide receiver
It’s tough to argue anything else. The Chiefs are loaded in most areas, but the receivers are a collection of question marks mixed with youth.
Kansas City allowed Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster to leave this offseason via free agency, replacing them with second-round pick Rashee Rice and veteran Richie James. The rest of the group includes Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore and Justin Watson.
While having a future first-ballot Hall of Fame tight end in Travis Kelce mitigates the concern around the wideouts, there is still a problem if the trio of Toney, Moore and Rice—all wild cards in 2023—struggle to generate targets and production.
X-factor: How much will Kadarius Toney produce?
Last October, the Chiefs traded third- and sixth-round picks for Toney, believing he could learn the system in 2022 before becoming an integral piece in ’23.
Michael Chow/The Republic/USA TODAY Network
With that time upon us, the question becomes whether Toney can finally fulfill the vast potential that made the Giants select him in the 2020 first round. To that end, Toney has played in only 19 games across two seasons and has only 55 catches for 591 yards and two touchdowns.
Kansas City is relying on Toney to not only be a factor, but perhaps be the top target in the passing game not named Kelce. That’s a big risk.
Sleeper/fantasy pick: WR Skyy Moore
The Chiefs’ receivers have plenty of question marks, so Moore is as good a bet as any to make an impact. The second-year wideout could push for the second or third spot on the depth chart. It doesn’t hurt that Moore will be catching passes from Mahomes. —Michael Fabiano, SI Fantasy
Best bet: Take the over on Patrick Mahomes’s 4800.5 passing yards
It’s quite simple—never bet against Mahomes. He has done this in three of his five seasons as the starting QB for the Chiefs, including each of the last two seasons. The schedule offers plenty of opportunities for shootouts. Mahomes will deliver. —Jennifer Piacenti, SI Betting
