In 2023, Social Security benefits got an 8.7% COLA, the largest cost-of-living adjustment since 1981. According to the United States Social Security Administration (SSA), "COLAs are based on increases in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)." So, when inflation starts to cool, that means a lower cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients. Currently, inflation is at its lowest level in two years, dropping to a 12-month rate of 3.0% in June. This is down from 4.0% in May and 4.9% in April.
David Payne, staff economist from the Kiplinger Letter, forecasts a 3% Social Security COLA in 2024, after this year’s 8.7%.
Last month, the Senior Citizens League, one of the nation’s largest nonpartisan seniors groups, predicted that Social Security COLA for 2024 could be 2.7%. However, despite inflation continuing to slow, the group’s Social Security COLA estimate for 2024 climbed to 3% this month. They found that a COLA of 3% would increase an average monthly benefit of $1,787 by a little more than $53.60.
Based on data from The Social Security Administration, below are the average monthly Social Security benefits for each group of beneficiaries in June 2023, along with estimated averages based on the 3% COLA prediction for 2024.
Retired workers
- Average monthly benefit: $1,837.29
- Average monthly benefit with 3% COLA: $1,892.41
Spouses of retired workers
- Average monthly benefit: $893.01
- Average monthly benefit with 3% COLA: $919.80
Children of retired workers
- Average monthly benefit: $859.79
- Average monthly benefit with 3% COLA: $885.58
Survivor benefits
- Average monthly benefit: $1,451.85
- Average monthly benefit with 3% COLA: $1,495.41
Nondisabled widow(er)s
- Average monthly benefit: $1,713.36
- Average monthly benefit with 3% COLA: $1,764.76
Disabled widow(er)s
- Average monthly benefit: $894.78
- Average monthly benefit with 3% COLA: $921.62
Disabled workers
- Average monthly benefit: $1,486.42
- Average monthly benefit with 3% COLA: $1,531.01
Spouses of disabled workers
- Average monthly benefit: $407.63
- Average monthly benefit with 3% COLA: $419.86
However, these estimates could change as there are three more months of data before the Social Security COLA is officially announced in October 2023.
Social Security COLAs from 2009-2023
Below is a list of every official Social Security COLA, in order from 2023 to 2009.
- 2023: 8.7%
- 2022: 5.9%
- 2021: 1.3%
- 2020: 1.6%
- 2019: 2.8%
- 2018: 2.0%
- 2017: 0.3%
- 2016: 0%
- 2015: 1.7%
- 2014: 1.5%
- 2013: 1.7%
- 2012: 3.6%
- 2011: 0%
- 2010: 0%
- 2009: 5.8%
