The Boston Celtics are finally getting another crack at winning the Larry O’Brien trophy after failing to return to the NBA Finals last season.
For years, it’s felt like this Celtics team has been on the cusp of achieving something great only to come up short each time a little adversity stands in the way. Now, here’s another chance at glory against the Dallas Mavericks.
Do the Celtics have what it takes to win it all? Absolutely. But, with Luka Doncic on the other side staring them down, a win is far from a guarantee.
Here are three reasons why the Celtics will (and won’t!) win the championship this year.
Why the Celtics will win it all
First: The Celtics are the best team in the NBA by far. Boston has been at the top of the league all season.
The team’s 11.7 net rating in the regular season blows everyone out the water. The team’s 10.8 postseason net rating does the same.
Second: Kristaps Porzingis is back. And, with him healthy, the Celtics’ five-out attack should thrive against the Mavericks’ defense.
Four of the five players in Boston’s starting lineup shoot 37 percent from 3-point range while shooting at least 4.7 3-point shots per game. The Mavericks’ defense will be stretched out like it hasn’t been this postseason. The Celtics will matchup hunt with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown and attack the rim. Dallas isn’t built to stop that.
Third: Defensively, the Celtics can dismantle the Mavericks in so many ways.
Obviously, Luka Doncic is one of the best players in the NBA right now. He will be a problem regardless of who you put on him. But Boston has two guards Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, who made the NBA All-Defense team this year. Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 1.9 blocks per game and is incredible on the weak side of the floor. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are two huge guards who are stout defenders themselves. That’s going to be a tough egg to crack for Dallas.
Why the Celtics won’t win it all
First: The Mavericks might be the Celtics’ first test all postseason long.
Obviously, that 10.8 net rating is dominant. But if you were going to have any reservations about the Celtics in this one, it’d probably be because they haven’t played anyone. Boston’s first three rounds of the series came against:
- The Heat without Jimmy Butler for the entire series.
- The Cavaliers without Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen for most of the series
- The Pacers without Tyrese Haliburton for half of the series.
Lining up against real stars in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving won’t be easy. Boston should be up for the challenge, but we’ll see.
Second: Luka Doncic is still the best player in the series, even if the Celtics are the better team.
That’s pretty self-explanatory. Luka Doncic is one of the best three or four players in the NBA. Now, Jayson Tatum is pretty incredible in his own right. And Boston certainly has the better team from top-to-bottom in this one.
But we saw it in the 2022 NBA Finals when Steph Curry completely took over. Sometimes, there’s just a guy who can flip an entire series upside-down. Luka Doncic can do that at any point here.
Third: Kristaps Porzingis isn’t healthy
Porzingis injured his calf at the end of April. The Finals will start on June 6, giving him just about a month of recovery time. He’s healthy enough to play and says he’ll be ready for Game 1 of the series.
Porzingis says he’s moving without pain in his calf at this point, but his pause here is a curious one.
Kristaps Porzingis takes a 10-second pause when asked if he’s running pain free, smiles, and then says:
“Yes.” pic.twitter.com/QxeSi4sAfe
— Noa Dalzell 🏀 (@NoaDalzellNBA) June 4, 2024
If he’s not out there and able to move at the levels required to be effective on defense? The Mavericks will put a ton of pressure on him by forcing switching and putting him in action with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. That could be a bad look for Boston.
