The 49ers do not necessarily need to beat the Dolphins on Sunday. In terms of their playoff aspirations, the Week 13 clash at Levi’s Stadium carries less importance than in-conference games with the Buccaneers and Seahawks in the coming weeks.
Buy 49ers TicketsYet there are some bragging rights are stake, with Kyle Shanahan facing his former offensive coordinator in Mike McDaniel and the 49er defense looking to silence two chatty former teammates in Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr, who made the headlines with comments made to Go Long.
Should the 7-4 Niners vindicate their status as favourites, it will firmly establish them as legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
To do so, they will likely need to achieve these three aims against the 8-3 Dolphins.
Force aggressive defense from Miami
The Dolphins’ defense has improved in recent weeks, the addition of Bradley Chubb to a front that also includes the likes of Jaelan Phillips and Christian Wilkins increasing their success in getting home with four pass rushers.
But the San Francisco offensive line has been consistently impressive in 2022, with an inexperienced interior playing better than anybody outside of the organisation might have anticipated.
The Dolphins may look to target right tackle Mike McGlinchey, regularly seen as the weak link in pass protection. However, McGlinchey had a quietly impressive game against the Saints last week and, if he and the rest of the O-Line can hold up in protection and force the Dolphins into blitzes, that should open huge windows for Jimmy Garoppolo to attack and get the passing game performing at a level that could lift the Niners to victory.
Find ideal backfield mix
The San Francisco running back room is dealing with injury issues with Elijah Mitchell ruled out until at least the playoffs because of the second MCL sprain of his season and Christian McCaffrey set to play following a week in which he has been dealing with what Kyle Shanahan described as “knee irritation”.
McCaffrey will be a focal point of the offense despite his knee issues, especially in the passing game, but the 49ers need to find a way to reduce the wear on the star running back they traded for in October.
Doing so will likely involve Jordan Mason, the rookie who averaged five yards per carry last week against the Saints, ensuring they were able to kill the game late in the fourth quarter.
The 49ers will look for Mason and fellow rookie Tyrion Davis-Price to produce efficiently in the run game against a Miami defense ranked 12th in Football Outsiders DVOA against the rush and take the burden off McCaffrey, enabling him to serve as an outlet for Garoppolo in the passing game. Succeed in doing so and the 49ers will have a recipe for offensive success and a victory.
Win with coverage often
The 49ers’ defensive line will be expected to dominate up front against a Dolphins’ offensive line likely missing both starting tackles, especially with defensive tackle Arik Armstead finally set to return for San Francisco.
Yet Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is sixth in the NFL in time to throw from the snap of the ball, according to NextGen Stats, averaging 2.6 seconds from snap to release.
He can use the speed of delivery to negate the 49er pass rush and get the ball downfield to speedy playmakers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
As such, the 49ers will need to also win with coverage to prevent that duo from getting open deep.
That is much easier said than done, but San Francisco’s secondary has been very strong this season and was impressive against New Orleans, with Charvarius Ward, Deommodore Lenoir, Jimmie Ward and the safeties of Tashaun Gipson and Talanoa Hufanga all performing well.
Should that group to do enough to limit Hill and Waddle, San Francisco will be in an extremely strong position to prevail.
