The NFL Scouting Combine is a place for prospective stars to show off their athleticism and convince franchise decision makers they’re worth a high-value draft pick. It’s also a place where physical attributes can trump someone’s actual impact on the field.
Sometimes a brilliant performance at the Combine is the signal a player is destined for greatness. Chris Johnson’s journey from East Carolina breakout star to 2,000-yard NFL rusher was boosted by a name-making 4.24 second performance in the 40-yard dash. But sometimes these workouts fail to reflect how a budding rookie will adapt to the big leagues. Ripping off a blazing sprint or 40-plus inch vertical leap isn’t a harbinger of future success.
There are several players who boosted their draft stock in Indianapolis, only to slump under those expectations as a pro. So with the 2023 drills underway, I figured it was a good time to break down some of those examples as a cautionary tale about buying into that late-February/early-March hype.
We’ll start with 2002 and work our way forward, wrapping up with 2020 since it’s too soon to make lasting judgements about the last few draft classes to hit the league. This list covers guys who flamed out, others who were derailed by injury and a handful who had long-ish careers but never quite lived up to their draft status.
So who are the guys who pumped themselves up with big workouts, only to quietly deflate on Sundays?
2002: RB TJ Duckett (round 1, pick 18) and WR Andre' Davis (round 2, pick 47)
Duckett tipped the scales at 254 pounds but still ran a 4.45 second 40 — the fourth-fastest among running backs in 2002. That gave the Falcons hope his Michigan State production would continue on Sundays. It didn’t — he had just one NFL season with more than 509 rushing yards.
Davis was an explosive, inconsistent deep threat at Virginia Tech whose final two seasons failed to match a breakthough sophomore year. After dusting the Combine with big performances in the 40, vertical leap and three-cone drill, the Browns bet he could be more than that. Instead, he turned out to be an explosive, inconsistent deep threat in the NFL — albeit one who lasted eight seasons in the league.
2003: WR Tyrone Calico (round 2, pick 60)
The Titans turned to nearby Murfreesboro to pluck a wideout with 4.34 second 40 speed in the second round of the 2003 Draft. Calico had only averaged 51 receiving yards per game after Middle Tennessee State’s move to the Sun Belt. His top end speed and agility — he also posted that year’s second-best three-cone drill time — didn’t result in NFL stardom. He had only 42 catches across three seasons.
2004: CB Joey Thomas (round 3, pick 70)
Thomas pushed his way from Montana State and into the third round by virtue of All-Big Sky honors and a stellar all-around performance at the Combine. The Packers’ gamble on his raw talent failed to pan out; he made one start in his NFL career.
2005: WR Troy Williamson (round 1, pick seven)
Williamson was a field-stretching deep threat who averaged more than 19 yards per catch at South Carolina. He also only had 91 catches across his three-year Gamecock career. But he ran a 4.32-second 40 at 6-foot-1 and 200-plus pounds, convincing the Minnesota Vikings he’d be a proper Randy Moss replacement. He had 1,131 receiving yards … over five years in the NFL.
2006: WR Chad Jackson (round 2, pick 36)
Bill Belichick’s wide receiver draft curse was in its early stages when he swung and missed on Jackson. The Florida Gator had five-star talent — a 4.32-second 40 and top five WR marks in the three-cone drill and vertical jump — but only one college season in which he’d caught more than 29 passes. He finished his three-year NFL career with 14.
2007: RB Chris Henry (round 2, pick 50)
The NFL’s other late-2000s Chris Henry played his way onto John Clayton’s “winners” list in 2007 after matching Adrian Peterson’s 4.4-second time in the 40. This vaulted him into the second round despite a four-year college career in which he ran for 869 total yards — and 3.3 yards per carry — at Arizona. He was slightly better in the pros, but managed to play in only 11 games across four seasons.
2008: DE Vernon Gholston (round 1, pick eight) and WR Devin Thomas (round 2, pick 35)
Gholston was a 6-foot-4, 266-pound monster who wasn’t just a Combine star — he wrapped up his Ohio State career with 22.5 sacks in his final two seasons. He dazzled in Indianapolis, running the fastest 40 time of all defensive ends (4.65 seconds), the highest vertical jump (35.5 inches) and tied for the event high with 37 bench press reps at 225 pounds. This all translated to five starts, one quarterback hit and zero sacks in three seasons as a New York Jet.
Thomas had 4.4-second 40 speed, a 6-foot-2 frame and dazzled in pass catching drills to earn late first-round buzz. He went high in the second instead after one productive season at Michigan State. He had just 40 catches in Washington before the team waived him in his third season.
2009: LB Aaron Curry (round 1, pick four)
Like Gholston, Curry was an uber-productive Power 5 defensive star. And like Gholston, Curry crushed the Combine — a 4.52-second 40 at 252 pounds and top-three marks among linebackers in the broad and vertical jumps. This explosiveness didn’t translate to the Seahawks’ lineup. He lasted two-plus seasons before being traded to the Raiders for fifth and seventh-round picks and was out of the league before 2013.
2010: CB Kyle Wilson (round 1, pick 29) and S Taylor Mays (round 2, pick 49)
Wilson ran fast and showcased the strength that led Bleacher Report to note the Boise State star “appeared chiseled and in great shape for a sub-6’0 corner with shutdown potential. He showed his ability to stick with bigger, more physical receivers by posted [sic] 25 reps in the bench press.” He snuck into the back end of the first round and spent only one season as a mostly forgettable starter for the Jets.
Mays had a reputation as a workout stud and proved it by running the fastest 40 among all defensive backs in 2010 (4.31 seconds) and uncorking a 41-inch vertical leap. But he had a reputation of not playing to that potential at USC and carried it on in the NFL, where he was a rotational player across a six-year career.
2011: QB Jake Locker (round 1, pick eight)
Locker had all the physical hallmarks of a great 2010s quarterback. He was big (6-foot-2, 231 pounds), fast (4.5 second 40 speed) and had a great throwing session in Indianapolis to ease concerns about his poor college accuracy. But those accuracy problems persisted. Locker completed only 57 percent of his passes as a pro. The man the Tennessee Titans once hoped would be their franchise quarterback retired due to a hip injury after four seasons and 23 starts with the team.
2012: WR Stephen Hill (round 2, pick 43) and WR Devon Wylie (round 4, pick 107)
Hill was a big, fast wideout coming out of Georgia Tech’s famously run-heavy offense under Paul Johnson. The Jets looked at his 6-foot-4 frame, 4.36-second 40 speed and smooth movement through the Combine’s other drills and hoped they’d lucked into the next Calvin Johnson. Instead they got 45 catches on 106 targets in a two-year pro career.
You may not remember Wylie, which is kind of the point of this whole article. He crushed the Combine enough that one national reporter suggested he could be “the next Wes Welker.” He appeared in eight regular season games.
2013: OG Jonathan Cooper (round 1, pick seven)
Cooper used the Combine to bolster his case as 2013’s top interior lineman prospect. ranking in the top three among guards and centers in the bench press, broad jump and 40. This led to a top 10 selection … and just two seasons in Arizona before being added as a throw-in to the Cardinals’ trade for Chandler Jones.
2014: CB Justin Gilbert (round 1, pick eight)
Gilbert was big (6-feet, 202 pounds), fast (4.37 second 40 time) and recorded solid marks on every drill he undertook in Indy. This cemented his place as a top 10 draft pick. He’d go on to start only three games as a pro, beginning with the Cleveland Browns and finishing in Pittsburgh.
2015: WR Kevin White (round 1, pick seven) and DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa (round 3, pick 74)
White is still kicking around the NFL, but injuries have derailed what should have been an explosive pro career. He not only ran a 4.35 second 40 but also repped out 23 times on the bench press to prove he could be the kind of speedy, powerful pass-catching presence DK Metcalf would later bring to the big leagues. Instead, he’s played in only 30 games in eight years, making him a frustrating “what if?” story.
Odighizuwa ran a 4.6 second 40 and busted out a 39-inch vertical leap at nearly 270 pounds to work his way up to the third round in 2015’s draft despite a fairly average career at UCLA. Injuries, a PED suspension and mental health concerns limited him to only 18 games as a pro.
2016: LB Darron Lee (round 1, pick 20) and OT Jason Spriggs (round 2, pick 48)
Lee had 27 tackles for loss in two seasons at Ohio State, then bolstered his NFL resume with a 4.47 second 40 — fastest among all linebackers in 2016 — and a 20-yard shuttle time better than most of the running backs who participated that spring. This led to two forgettable seasons as a starter with the Jets, suspensions for PED violations as well as breaking team rules, a bunch of NFL fines and a Super Bowl ring as a depth option for the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs.
Spriggs boosted his stock at the Senior Bowl before putting on a show in Indianapolis to stake his place at the top of 2016’s second tier of offensive linemen, leading his position in both the 40 and the broad jump. The Green Bay Packers drafted him to be the high-upside bookend to David Bahktiari. Instead, he made only 10 starts in a five-season career.
2017: WR John Ross (round 1, pick nine)
Ross ran a Combine-record 4.22 second 40 and vaulted his way into the top 10 of the 2017 Draft despite only one season of above-average production at Washington. He was supposed to transform the Cincinnati Bengals’ offense. Instead, he caught only 41.5 percent of his passes as a Bengal — 51 receptions over four years.
2018: RB Derrius Guice
Guice was called “a young Marshawn Lynch” by USA Today thanks in part to a sub-4.5 second 40 at nearly 230 pounds. That pushed him into the second round, but injury erased his rookie campaign and he played only five games in the NFL before being waived following a domestic violence arrest.
2019: WR Andy Isabella (round 2, pick 62)
Isabella was prolific at Massachusetts, catching 102 passes for nearly 1,700 yards as a senior. That led him to the Combine, where he dusted off a 4.31 second 40 to tie for the top spot among all wideouts in 2019 and gave the Arizona Cardinals reason to draft him ahead of prospects like Diontae Johnson and Terry McLaurin. Isabella remains an active player, but he has only 33 receptions in four years as a pro and was last seen being largely ignored in the Baltimore Ravens’ WR-needy offense.
2020: TE Albert Okwuegbunam (round 4, pick 118)
There’s still time for Okwuegbunam to turn this around — he’s only 24 years old, after all. But 2022 was supposed to be his breakthrough year after the Broncos dealt away Noah Fant and the big tight end quickly fell out of the starting lineup. Okwuegbunam worked his way into the fourth round despite an uneven college career thanks to one of the fastest tight end 40 times in the Combine’s history.
6'5", 258 lbs.@MizzouFootball TE Albert Okwuegbunam runs a 4.49u 40-yard dash!
Would tie for fourth-fastest 40 by a tight end since 2003.
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— NFL (@NFL) February 27, 2020
