Even as foreign investors pull out sackloads of cash from Dalal Street and the market has given near-zero returns in the last 2 years, Morgan Stanley’s India equity strategist Ridham Desai sees 25% probability of the Sensex hitting the 1 lakh milestone within the next 12 months, with India’s improving macro and earnings cycle underpinning that bullish scenario.
While the 1 lakh print is framed as a bullish but plausible outcome, Morgan Stanley’s base case remains more conservative, with a Sensex target of 89,000 by June 2027 and a 50% probability attached to that trajectory. This implies upside potential of about 15% from current levels and rests on a continuation of India’s gains in macro stability, increased private investment and a persistently positive gap between real growth and real interest rates.
