#21 SDSU vs. Fresno State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
The no. 21-ranked San Diego State Aztecs men’s basketball team is in sole possession of first place in the Mountain West Conference.
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The Aztecs are 6-1 on the road this season.
WHEN: Wednesday, Feb. 15th – 8:00 p.m. PST / 11:00 p.m. EST
WHERE: Save Mart Center, Fresno, CA (Capacity 15,596)
WATCH: CBSSN
RADIO: San Diego Sports 760 / SiriusXM App ch. 968
SERIES RECORD: San Diego State and Fresno State meet for the 126th time Wednesday evening. The Aztecs hold a 69-56 series advantage. The Aztecs have won the last seven.
LAST MEETING: The Aztecs defeated the Bulldogs 53-46 at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas during the Mountain West Tournament on March 10th, 2022.
WEBSITES: GoAztecs.com, the official San Diego State athletics website; GoBulldogs.com, the official Fresno State athletics website.
ODDS: SDSU -8.5
OVER/UNDER: 128.5
San Diego, CA – The No. 21 SDSU Aztecs (20-5, 11-2 MW) visit the Fresno State Bulldogs (9-15, 5-8 MW) for the first and only time during conference play this season.
The Aztecs have won and covered the past 3 games overall, including a pronounced, dominant 82-71 win over UNLV as 9-point favorites on Saturday. San Diego State is now 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last 8 games.
The Bulldogs, on the other hand, experienced a 77-66 loss at Nevada Friday as 9-point underdogs. Fresno State is a respectable 4-2 straight-up (SU) and ATS in the previous 6 home games.
Tip-off is set for 8:00 p.m. PST, and the Aztecs open as 8.5-point favorites, as they seek a seventh straight win over the Bulldogs
Who will win? Let’s take a closer look.
Why The Bulldogs Will Win
Fresno State is ranked 156th in the KenPom rankings. They are averaging 102.4 points per 100 possessions (228th) while allowing 101.7 points per 100 possessions (102nd). This is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, ranked 350th in points per game (62.1) while hitting 42.6% of their shots.
They are an outstanding free-throw shooting team, hitting 74.6% of their attempts, and have been very good defensively, allowing 65.4 points per game. Fresno State is allowing 68.5 points per game in the conference.
The Bulldogs have an uphill climb, but victory is not impossible.
Why The Aztecs Will Win
The No. 21-ranked Aztecs are in sole possession of first place in the Mountain West.
San Diego State is one of the top teams in the country according to the KenPom rankings, 17th overall. They are averaging 114.2 points per 100 possessions (32nd) while allowing 94.9 points per 100 possessions (26th).
The Aztecs are averaging 74.6 points per game, but it is defensively where they are dominating, allowing 65.8 points per contest, 69th overall. The team is allowing 66.1 points per game within the conference and opponents are hitting 43.2% of their shots.
What Will Happen
These teams have not faced each other this season, but this is an Aztecs team that looks to make a deep run in the tournament. They have won 13 of their last 15 games while Fresno State has lost seven of their last 10. Fresno State has been average at home as well, going 6-4 while the Aztecs have dominated on the road, going 6-1, with their only loss coming at Nevada, the second-place team in the conference.
The Aztecs will be favored in this game. They will likely cover the spread even up to as much as 11, as Fresno State is struggling offensively of late, held to 66 points or fewer in four of their last six games.
The Aztecs will extend the lead and then give some points back in the second half, finishing 13 points ahead of the Bulldogs.
Final Score: SDSU 68, Fresno State 55
