Historically, this article would have been deemed “winners and losers” of the NFL Scouting Combine, because teams placed more emphasis on whether players participated in workouts and the like. In recent years, none of that has made any significant impact on draft placement nor a team’s willingness to throw a rookie into the fire.
Case in point: Last year, reports about C.J. Stroud scoring poorly on an intellectual evaluation created raucous reactions among the pundit class that didn’t translate to his placement or ability to dominate in his inaugural season.
Unfortunately, it’s nearly impossible to accurately gauge a prospect’s rookie fantasy football value without knowing where he will land. Nevertheless, we’ll recap the key performances from this year’s scouting combine to see what we can learn.
Quarterbacks
Michael Penix Jr., Washington: After a host of significant injuries, which includes tearing his right ACL twice and two shoulder injuries over the last six years, Penix said he received a clean medical report at the combine and hopes to solidify himself as a first-round pick. During the drills, Penix showed off his elite arm talent both in the intermediate and long-range throwing situations. Penix, who is vying QB4 on draft day, has everything fantasy owners look for from a pocket passer. He’s mobile enough to buy time but will require the proper system fit and a top-end offensive line more so than most quarterbacks.
Drake Maye, North Carolina: Basically a lock for a top-five selection, Maye’s confidence isn’t lacking, and he reportedly fared well in team interviews, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Be patient, regardless of where he lands.
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan: While the national champion do not run the 40 at the combine due to a hamstring issue, he chose to throw on Saturday and didn’t disappoint. Gaining steam in draft stock after being dinged for not doing enough to carry his team on its way to an FBS title, McCarthy quieted lingering critics of his arm talent at the combine, especially in the deep-throw drill. Expect a Round 1 placement come April’s draft, but it likely will take a few years before we’re talking about him as a reliable fantasy contributor.
Joe Milton III, Tennessee: No one doubted his lively arm after seeing the Volunteer play ball, and his vertical talents were on full display at the combine. However, Milton continues to struggle with consistent ball placement, particularly on timing routes. His arm talent and respectable athleticism could make for an interesting fantasy product one day, but he remains on the raw side for a sixth-year senior.
Bo Nix, Oregon: His arm strength never was a question mark, and Nix’s experience (61 starts) will help him on draft day. At the combine, he displayed excellent footwork and above-average timing in the drills. He has the passing tools, mobility, and intangibles to blossom into a high-end fantasy starter relatively early in his career.
Running backs
Jonathon Brooks, Texas: One of the top backs in the class, Brooks is coming off a torn ACL and is roughly four months post-surgery. He has a July 1 target date to be fully cleared for practice, setting his goal as being ready for training camp that opens later in the month. Given the timing of his injury and Brooks likely being unable to participate prior to July, his 2024 fantasy outlook should be tempered.
MarShawn Lloyd, USC: The versatile Lloyd tested as expected and performed well in drills, aside from a drop. He will find an immediate role in the NFL as a pass-catching outlet in a tandem backfield, and fantasy gamers will be quite familiar with him as soon as 2024.
Trey Benson, Florida State: While today’s pro game makes a rarity out of being a bell-cow back, Benson offers traits to buck that trend. He’s a sub-4.4 guy in the straight line at 6-foot, 216 pounds, and this Seminole can shoulder a hefty workload. He’s a quality receiver and route runner, which offsets some concern about a lack of between-the-tackles explosiveness. His 1.52-second 10-yard split also helps alleviate those worries. Benson has a little young Joe Mixon in his game and may find an early opportunity to compete for the full complement of RB1 chores, but it will require the right coaching staff and personnel situation.
Dylan Laube, New Hampshire: He’ll find multiple interested teams looking for a third-down outlet in the passing game. Laube is rather limited as an actual running back but possesses plus hands and dynamic route skills. In addition, he’s a prolific return man on special teams. In today’s NFL, those traits and that degree of versatility are extra coveted.
Ray Davis, Kentucky: A 4.52-second 40 time was solid, and Davis’ compact build in conjunction with soft mitts will put him in the conversation for three-down work. Davis isn’t an exceptional athlete and is reliant on grinding. He overcame a rough upbringing and offers intangibles that will endear him to a coaching staff well beyond his on-field skill set. In the right setting, he’s an RB2 fantasy play more often than not.
Audric Estime, Notre Dame: Being the slowest running back (4.71) at the combine is never a good look. Estime also appeared stiff in drills. To his credit, he was explosive in the vertical and broad jumps. As the type who is more reliant on a system fit than usual, Estime profiles in fantasy as the two-down and goal-line back in a split approach.
Isaac Guerendo, Louisville: A high school track standout, Guerendo did what was expected of him in testing, pacing all running backs with a 4.33-second 40-yard dash. He’s more of a straight-line guy than an elusive runner as a build-up speedster — the latter was demonstrated by posting the fastest RB 40 time while tying for 11th-fastest 10-yard split. The lack of initial burst negates some of the advantage his long speed presents, so Guerendo may need to be schemed into open-field touches as a pro to maximize the strongest area of his game.
Kimani Vidal, Troy: Measuring 5-foot-8 and a well-built 213 pounds, Vidal posted a 4.46 time in the 40. He will get overlooked by many because of his school, but there’s major fantasy sleeper potential should he land in the right setting. Vidal was extremely productive as a workhorse back (297 carries in 2023) but needed to earn too many tough yards thanks to an inferior offensive line the last couple of years. He has three-down worth and will fit nicely into any flavor of a West Coast offense. Fantasy owners should be eager to see where he ends up in the draft.
Wide receivers
Ladd McConkey, Georgia: There’s no question McConkey helped himself. He ran 4.39 in the 40 (tied for WR6) and was arguably the most fluid of all receivers in the gauntlet drill. The former Bulldog is a coach’s player and will thrive on third downs. McConkey excels vs. zone coverage and is dangerous with the ball in his hands. He’d make a great fit in a three-wide base that emphasizes chain-moving passing plays in traffic. There’s weekly fantasy utility in McConkey’s future.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State: After a prolific collegiate career, Harrison opted not to participate at the combine. He met privately with teams and will hold private workouts. As mentioned in the intro, not taking part really doesn’t hurt any prospects on the high end of the spectrum. Expect Harrison to be a top-five pick.
Rome Odunze, Washington: The top receiver on some boards, Odunze does it all, brings the intangibles, and did what we expected to see at the combine. He didn’t shy away from competing, and that could be the difference for teams considering him over Harrison. Either way, a 6-foot-3, 212-pound receiver who runs a 4.45 and comes with Odunze’s rare blend of traits is a top-10 lock. Expect a No. 1 fantasy receiver within the first two years of his pro career.
Brian Thomas Jr., LSU: Quite likely a top-20 selection in the draft, Thomas ran impressively (4.33 40) and did nothing to suggest he won’t be highly coveted in the opening stanza. Size, speed, experience, versatility to play inside and out, and the pedigree to point toward Thomas becoming a fantasy WR1 in the pros.
Adonai Mitchell, Texas: A freakish athlete with speed for days, Mitchell ran one of the fastest times among WRs (4.34) in the 40-yard dash, and he finished tied at fourth in the 10-yard split. The 6-foot-2, 205-pounder busted out a broad jump of 11-foot-4 to lead the position, and he leaped 39 1/2 inches in the vert. There’s no shortage of highlight reel plays from his time with the Longhorns, and Mitchell solidified himself as one of the premier receivers in a deep position.
Devontez Walker, North Carolina: Some doubts arose after Walker struggled mightily at the Senior Bowl, but he rebounded nicely at the combine. Fast, fast, fast … Walker seared his way to a 4.36 40 time, matching what one would expect after watching him play. His game, at least thus far, is built for stretching the field as a complementary piece in an offense. He’d make for an awesome fit in a system that leans on play-action passing and chooses its downfield shots. With the right coaching, Walker has the traits to develop into someone like Gabe Davis — an inconsistent but useful fantasy matchup option.
Jacob Cowing, Arizona: He finished second among receivers in the 40 with a 4.38-second time, and Cowing’s experience as a short-area target in a pass-minded offensive design makes for an interesting slot option. Looking around the league for an obvious fit points toward Washington, where Kliff Kingsbury takes over as OC. The Commanders have WR Curtis Samuel facing free agency, and Kingsbury certainly saw some Cowing while coaching the Arizona Cardinals. Cowing has some issues with drops and needs to improve his footwork, but he’s a problem in the open field.
Xavier Worthy, Texas: His world-class speed was on full display after Worthy posted a record-breaking, 4.21-second 40 time. Nevertheless, Worthy’s small frame doesn’t necessarily portend to a starting role at the next level. Now, it’s not that we haven’t seen it happen — DeSean Jackson and DeVonta Smith stand out as successful examples — but the odds are stacked against a 165-pound receiver being a down-in, down-out starter. In a more pragmatic view, expect him to be scripted into the game for situational plays designed to exploit coverage mismatches and put him in position to let her fly. That makes for exciting football but doesn’t typically translate well to fantasy.
Johnny Wilson, Florida State: His eventual NFL coaching staff will have to decide whether the nearly 6-foot-7 Wilson is a wide receiver or a slot tight end, but his 4.52-second official 40 time translates better to the latter position than a wideout. He possesses some of the same athletic traits that made Darren Waller a fantasy TE1.
Ainias Smith, Texas A&M: A stress fracture in his left shin was discovered during medical exams, leading to Smith not participating. He will see a specialist next week, according to NFL Network, and Smith should be fully healthy for offseason activities.
Tight ends
Brock Bowers, Georgia: The undisputed TE1 of this class opted not to workout at the combine and will perform at his March 13 pro day instead. He underwent tightrope surgery to stabilize a high-ankle sprain suffered in October, so taking the extra couple of weeks to prepare makes sense. Barring a catastrophic incident between now and the draft, Bowers could be a top-15 pick.
Tip Reiman, Illinois: Known more for his blocking skills, Reiman looked quite comfortable and fluid in the gauntlet pass-catching drills. Reiman’s 4.64-second 40 time was sixth-fastest among his positional mates … not bad for a 271-pounder. He wasn’t all that productive in college, but his athletic traits and underrated hands will land him in a spot to eventually earn a starting opportunity.
Devin Culp, Washington: He ran a positional-best 4.47-second 40-yard dash and looked every bit the part of a dynamic pass catcher during the field in the drills. It will be interesting to see where he winds up, but as with the overwhelming number of rookie tight ends not named Sam LaPorta, keep your 2024 expectations in check for fantasy purposes.
Theo Johnson, Penn State: Another player with a ton of upside, Johnson measured well and showed off his athleticism. He was second in both the 40 (4.57), vertical (39 1/2) and broad jump (10-foot-5). Johnson also stood out in positional drills and certainly helped his cause. Despite prototypical size for an inline tight end, he may be better suited to get flexed outside for size mismatches. Even casual fantasy gamers will come to know his name in time.
