The regular season is over, and we’re doing something a little different this week.
We’ll cover Week 18, for sure, in the Ten Takeaways. But we figured we’d start this week with an in-depth look forward to the 2023 NFL playoffs.
Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports (Jackson); Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports (Purdy)
So put your learning cap on, and we’ll give you what you need to know about the 14 teams still alive …
AFC
1 Baltimore Ravens
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- Division finish: first, AFC North
- Why they’ll win it all: Let’s start with Lamar Jackson and how, in the words of one executive, “They’re extremely well coached in all three phases.” The Ravens have an edge on defense. They’re better at receiver with Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers than they’ve been in years. Isaiah Likely has filled in nicely for Mark Andrews. Plus, their style is a handful for most teams. After Baltimore pounded the 49ers on Christmas night, here’s what linebacker Patrick Queen said to me about that: “People don’t want to play the style of football we like to play. They are a physical team. They are that aggressive team. I think our brand of football outmatches anybody.”
- X-factor: The defensive tackles are the unsung heroes of Mike Macdonald’s defense. With so many teams having either injuries or deficiencies up front, the duo of Michael Pierce and Justin Madubuike have been and will be a problem. The massive 355-pound Pierce has been reborn in his second stint as a Raven at 31 years old. Meanwhile, Madubuike, at 26, has emerged as one of the NFL’s most disruptive interior linemen.
- Fatal flaw: It’s tough to find one, but one evaluator from a rival team told me age on the offensive line, with tackles Ronnie Stanley and Morgan Moses, and guard Kevin Zeitler, could be a factor.
- Under-the-radar player: Let’s go with Likely. His numbers for the year—30 catches for 411 yards and five touchdowns—aren’t off the charts. But 21 of those catches, and 322 of those yards, and all five scores have come in the six games since Andrews injured his ankle.
- Big unknown: Again, you really have to go digging here. If there’s one, it’s probably how they’ll be in a close game late against an elite opponent. Which is weird because it almost feels like knocking them for blowing out their best opponents (Dolphins, Lions, Niners). “They’re the best team I’ve seen this year,” says one exec.
2 Buffalo Bills (11–6)
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- Division finish: first, AFC East
- Why they’ll win it all: They’re battle-tested with key talent in key spots—and Josh Allen is their quarterback. “He’ll make some mistakes,” says one rival exec, “but he’s the difference for them. And they have had some continuity with their players. It helps when you’ve been in the playoffs together; they’ve been there before.” While Stefon Diggs may not be quite the player he has in the past, James Cook, Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir have infused the offense with youth. And the defensive line has been really good late in the year.
- X-factor: Cook. “He’s a matchup problem that adds a new dimension for them,” says one exec. And it’s a dimension that’s given Allen the easy money plays the Bills have struggled to serve up for him without Cole Beasley. Cook only adds to his ability as a runner, which was discounted a bit when he came out of Georgia, something that’s obvious with a 1,500-scrimmage-yard season in the books.
- Fatal flaw: Speed in the secondary. Tre’Davious White’s not coming back. Micah Hyde is 33 and Jordan Poyer is 32. So if you can block Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau & Co., there are matchups to be had on the back end.
- Under-the-radar player: Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa. Both high draft picks, the two have turned a corner this year, and helped supplement the disruptive Oliver to anchor one of the NFL’s most athletic, aggressive fronts.
Big unknown: The Bills cut back on designed runs with Allen early in the year, but have leaned on him a little more since Joe Brady took over play-calling from Ken Dorsey. Will that trend continue? And if it does, how will Allen hold up?
3 Kansas City Chiefs (11–6)
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- Division finish: first, AFC West
- Why they’ll win it all: The first two reasons are easy—Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. The two have been to five consecutive AFC title games and three Super Bowls since Mahomes became the starter in 2018. And this might be the best defense, with youth, upside, and interchangeable parts, that the two have had on their side over the past six seasons.
- X-factor: Rashee Rice. By any measure, the second-round pick has had a great start to his NFL career, with 79 catches for 938 yards and seven touchdowns. And if the question was whether he could be a solid sidecar to Travis Kelce in the pass game, Rice’s already there. But if Kelce can’t kick it into high gear, Rice’s ability to find another gear in his game could be a swing factor in how far the Chiefs go.
- Fatal Flaw: The defense may have peaked early. The tackles have been up and down. But, really, this comes down to the skill talent around Mahomes. “They still look like they’re in a funk,” says one exec, “and Kelce looks like he got old.” It’s to the point now where the formula might need to change, with a little more of Isiah Pacheco, the run game and the defense. Another less-significant issue: Some teams have taken advantage of the Chiefs’ safeties in coverage.
- Under-the-radar player: L’Jarius Sneed. The fourth-year corner has been a vital piece in how DC Steve Spagnuolo has set up his defense: Sneed is good enough to travel with top receivers and gives his coaches the freedom to use others in the secondary, such as Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid.
- Big unknown: How much the Chiefs will be willing to lean on Pacheco and the run game, given the current circumstances, which could be relative to how the younger receivers play.
4 Houston Texans (10-7)
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- Division finish: first, AFC South
- Why they’ll win it all: The Texans’ young players are playing with irrational confidence, and DeMeco Ryans goes into the playoffs for the first time as a head coach with a lot of postseason experience from his time as a player and a San Francisco assistant. If Saturday’s win over the Colts showed you anything, it’s that Houston’s going to let it rip. “They’re very confident—fearless, like a young, talented team should be,” one exec says. “I don’t think they’re necessarily great at anything, but the quarterback plays well, avoids catastrophic mistakes and gives them a chance.”
- X-factor: The chemistry between C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins. Houston’s third-year (Collins was a 2021 third-round pick) broke out for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns on 80 catches, all numbers that were better than his first two years. And the trust between him and Stroud was on display again and again in Indianapolis. It’s not a stretch to think that shows up in a big spot in the playoffs.
- Fatal flaw: The team is still young and inexperienced. Which, again, could be a double-edged sword.
- Under-the-radar player: Jonathan Greenard. He has a team-leading 12.5 sacks but has missed the past three weeks with an injury. He has been a revelation opposite Will Anderson Jr., to the point where he’ll command a sizable contract (and maybe a franchise tag before that) in the offseason. If he’s healthy, he and Anderson will be an issue for whoever Houston draws.
- Big unknown: Health, plain and simple. Greenard, Robert Woods and Noah Brown were all inactive for a must-win game Saturday night. Their availability for this weekend shapes up as a big storyline.
5 Cleveland Browns (11–6)
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- Division finish: second, AFC North
- Why they’ll win it all: One exec I talked to offered this up, unprompted: “I think Cleveland can win the whole damn thing.” So I asked why. “Cleveland just has the [kind of] game that plays well in the playoffs. They can run, they can hit big plays, and the defense is really good. [Myles] Garrett is the best player I’ve watched this year.” Indeed, between the way coach Kevin Stefanski has handled the injuries, Jim Schwartz has energized the defense, and Joe Flacco has come in, there’s a lot of confidence, and maybe a little magic, with this group.
- X-factor: We’ll go with the obvious: Flacco and how he’s played like a guy with nothing to lose out there, which has only made him, and the Browns’ offense more dangerous.
- Fatal flaw: The injury situation on offense. While losing Nick Chubb, and injuries at safety and receiver have hurt, Bill Callahan has been a magician in making it work with his fourth and fifth tackles, at a time in the NFL when no one else seems to have any offensive line depth. Still, they’re going into the playoffs with Geron Christian and James Hudson III at important spots.
- Under-the-radar player: Za’Darius Smith. The veteran bookend to Garrett has bounced around the league but is, at his best, a very good player. He’s been up and down this year—yet a big factor at times. Can he be just that if the Browns need the defense to carry the team through a playoff game?
- Big unknown: With a full week for a defense to prepare to face the Browns’ Flacco-led attack, does the dynamic change?
6 Miami Dolphins (11–6)
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- Division finish: second, AFC East
- Why they’ll win it all: Overall team speed—the Dolphins’ offensive skill players have the look of an Olympic track relay. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Acane and Raheem Mostert all run 4.4 in the 40 or under. And a triggerman, in Tua Tagovailoa, has proved to be the right kind of point guard to get the wealth of playmakers the ball in space in Mike McDaniel’s creative, field-stretching scheme. Then, you have defensive coordinator Vic Fangio having gotten Miami into the top 10 in total defense in his first year.
- X-factor: Achane. The rookie dynamo had a three-week stretch through which he had 513 scrimmage yards. Then, he got hurt, and he’s only re-emerged over the past couple of weeks. He gives Miami a game-breaker underneath to make defenses pay for overcommitting to deal with Hill and Waddle, and for that reason he could loom large.
- Fatal flaw: Quite simply, it’s injuries. Both of the team’s big-ticket edge defenders, Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, are out for the year. The line’s been banged up, and the receivers, too. And some folks think these woes are part of the makeup of a smaller, faster team.
- Under-the-radar player: Andrew Van Ginkel moved into a much more prominent role in Fangio’s front (due to the injuries) and has re-emerged—after being buried on the depth chart—with a career-high six sacks. Especially of late, he’s become a problem, and was a big one for the Cowboys’ line a couple of weeks ago. And enough of one where the Dolphins are going to have a problem themselves if the foot injury that knocked him out of Sunday’s game against Buffalo keeps him out of the playoffs. Another player worth mentioning is Jevon Holland, who one exec calls “one of the best safeties in the league.”
- Big unknown: This comes back to the makeup of Miami’s team—and potentially having to play in the elements in January. “If they have to play on the road, in the snow and the cold, they’re a small speed team. How does that translate?” the exec says.
7 Pittsburgh Steelers (10–7)
Kareem Elgazzar/USA TODAY Network
- Division finish: third, AFC North
- Why they’ll win it all: My answer here was going to be that the defense is still really good. But with T.J. Watt highly unlikely to play this weekend, that’s tougher to say. On offense, the skill players and run game did show up in a must-win spot Saturday in Baltimore. And, obviously, it’d be pretty silly to count a Mike Tomlin team out. But the odds are stacked against the Steelers.
- X-factor: Mason Rudolph. The sixth-year Steeler is 3–0 since being installed as the starting quarterback in Week 16, and George Pickens, Diontae Johnson and Najee Harris have come alive since.
- Fatal flaw: It’s been quarterback all year, and the team’s overall consistency on offense, which is illustrated by the slew of effort issues with the receivers. The offensive line was an issue but has improved. Replacing Watt’s impact, of course, would rank at the top of this list, too, if he indeed does miss the wild-card round.
- Under-the-radar player: Alex Highsmith. So he’s not exactly under the radar, but he just became a lot more important. His ability to create pressure without having Watt pulling attention to the other side looms large.
- Big unknown: Whether the offensive line’s improvement, behind bookend tackles Dan Moore Jr. and Broderick Jones, holds up in the playoffs.
NFC
1 San Francisco 49ers
Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports
- Division finish: first, NFC West
- Why they’ll win it all: This isn’t very complicated. “To me,” says one exec, “they’re the most complete team.” If there’s a roster without a real flaw, this is it. Brock Purdy is healthy and has been outstanding. Trent Williams anchors a line that’s still getting better. The skill talent is off the charts. The front seven is loaded with blue-chip talent and depth. There aren’t many nits to pick here.
- X-factor: With Kyle Shanahan’s scheme, the question is always going to be where things go if a defense can knock them off-schedule—either by jumping to a lead, or by creating bad down-and-distance situations, annulling the run game-pass game marriage that fuels all the deception with which the 49ers light people up. “The biggest question, to me, is what happens if they get behind in the fourth quarter” said an exec, “and it becomes a dropback game?”
- Fatal flaw: If there’s one, it might be with the depth in the secondary. And that’s why it’ll be important for the defensive line group—with Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead and the rest—to play to its potential. It hasn’t always, and any struggle to get to the passer could give teams such as the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles favorable matchups with San Francisco’s DBs.
- Under-the-radar player: Um … this is a tough one with such a star-studded team. But give me Jon Feliciano, who has been invaluable as a guard, through injuries to starters Aaron Brooks and Spencer Burford. The line is one area that’s a bit thin, so having a 31-year-old veteran to lean on there has been a godsend.
- Big unknown: Rookie kicker Jake Moody has been good for the most part, but big misses cost the team in losses to the Vikings and Browns. So how will he perform in a big spot?
2 Dallas Cowboys (12–5)
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- Division finish: first, NFC East
- Why they’ll win it all: Because the Cowboys play a very 2023 game—with their ability to strike in the passing game, get after the passer and create turnovers on defense, and deploy top-shelf players to execute all of that. “Blue-[chip] players across the board, including on special teams,” says one exec. “And they’re equipped to win close games. They’ve been through a gauntlet, which I think [Mike McCarthy] likes, and they’ve played their complementary football formula throughout.”
- X-factor: Jake Ferguson. In Dallas’s galaxy of offensive stars (Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, etc.), the second-year tight end has become a go-to chain mover and red-zone target for Prescott. In a you-can’t-cover-them-all sort of way, Ferguson could be a headache for defenses in the playoffs.
- Fatal flaw: The run game, on both sides. The need for Pollard to be a more traditional back post–Ezekiel Elliott has taken away, at times, from what the fifth-year star is really good at. And the team’s run defense has had its problems, too, which can undermine the group’s strength (attacking the passer). So it stands to reason there’s a certain type of game opponents will want to drag Dallas into.
- Under-the-radar player: Osa Odighizuwa. In his third year as a pro, he probably shouldn’t be overlooked as much anymore. But whether it’s because of his sack number (3) or the stars alongside him (Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence), Odighizuwa doesn’t get the notoriety he should for being one of the NFL’s most disruptive interior linemen.
- Big unknown: Does the Cowboys’ game travel with them? They’re 8–0 at home, 4–5 on the road, and have looked like a different group outside of Arlington, Texas. Of course, getting the No. 2 seed means they won’t have to deal with that for at least a couple of weeks.
3 Detroit Lions (12–5)
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- Division finish: first, NFC North
- Why they’ll win it all: Because, quite simply, they know exactly who they are. “There’s no question about their identity,” says an exec. “And knowing what you are is one of the hardest things to get to.” So who are the Lions? They’re physical and dynamic on offense, capable of attacking in a lot of ways, and they’re aggressive on defense. Plus, they’re really good on the lines of scrimmage.
- X-factor: Jared Goff. It’s not often that you’d list the quarterback here, but Goff is the type of player capable of going on a heater—and he has been that guy over the last few weeks. When he’s there, Detroit becomes incredibly difficult to defend, with a powerful offensive line and balanced group of skill players.
- Fatal flaw: Dan Campbell has shown himself to be a live-by-the-sword, die-by-the-sword sort of head coach. And that was certainly reflected in how he threw to a tackle on a two-point conversion against Dallas, got flagged for it, then went for it two more times. Could it cost the Lions? The team’s depth at corner would be another thing to watch here.
- Under-the-radar player: We’ll give you two—the Lions’ versatile rookie defenders, Jack Campbell and Brian Branch. Both have been Swiss-Army knives for Aaron Glenn on defense (Campbell’s played on and off the line, Branch at corner and safety), and both could be big playmakers for that unit in January.
- Big unknown: The Lions are relying on young (albeit talented) players all over the lot. They’ve been on big stages this year, but, obviously, the playoffs can be a different animal.
4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9–8)
Vincent Carchietta/USA Today network
- Division finish: first, NFC South
- Why they’ll win it all: The championship infrastructure that remains on the roster. From Lavonte David to Devin White to Antoine Winfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Carlton Davis, Tristan Wirfs and on and on, there is a lot of playoff experience in that locker room, and a lot of rings.
- X-factor: Baker Mayfield. Evans looks like he’s still capable of being the driver of a great offense after a decade in the league, and there’s a nice blend of young and old through that unit. If Mayfield’s at his best, to steal his word, pretty dangerous.
- Fatal flaw: Age. Yes, it’s a thin line between experienced and old. And with age can come injuries, and fatigue, and so all of that is in play with the Bucs.
- Under-the-radar player: YaYa Diaby. The coaches and staff raved about the freakish athleticism of the third-round pick in the summer, and it all looks justified now. He wrestled a starting job from former first-rounder Joe Tryon-Shoyinka in November, and hasn’t looked back since. He has 6.5 sacks on the year, and he’s been a matchup issue for just about everyone.
- Big unknown: How they’ll fare against better competition. The NFC South, obviously, was down this year—and the Bucs struggled to keep up with the best teams on their schedule. With the Eagles in Round 1, they’ll get a shot to avenge one of those losses right away.
5 Philadelphia Eagles (11–6)
Bill Streicher/USA Today network
- Division finish: second, NFC East
- Why they’ll win it all: Because they’ve been there before, and the offense is still loaded. “At the end of the day, they’ve got the offensive group, the offensive line, the skill group, the run game, the quarterback,” an exec says. “If they put it all together on offense, they’re tough.” In particular, the line gives Philadelphia a bedrock of consistency to lean on when things get tough. And Jalen Hurts has mostly delivered in the biggest spots the last couple years.
- X-factor: Hurts as a runner. Philly has protected Hurts this year by trying to be judicious in calling run plays for him. Some of his biggest plays with his legs have come on scrambles, and the team has been more reliant on the traditional run game with D’Andre Swift. Will the governor come off on called runs for Hurts in the playoffs?
- Fatal flaw: Speed and age in the back seven on defense. “They’ve been old and slow in the back seven all year,” says one exec, “and now they’re not rushing the passer like they were.” Recent injuries to Zach Cunningham and Darius Slay (both of whom are old in football age) have highlighted the problem.
- Under-the-radar player: Kevin Byard hasn’t been exactly what they expected he would be in October, but the veteran safety finding some of his old magic (along with Slay maybe doing the same) would go a long way to curing the defense’s ills.
- Big unknown: Matt Patricia as a defensive play-caller. Part of the problem with taking over a system that’s not yours, as Patricia did in displacing Sean Desai, is not knowing where the answers are when things go awry. So how is that managed in the playoffs? By leaning on things closer to Patricia’s background? Or by Patricia somehow finding a way to those answers in record time? It’s an open, and pressing, question.
6 Los Angeles Rams (10–7)
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- Division finish: second, NFC West
- Why they’ll win it all: They still have Sean McVay, and they’re playing with a bunch of ascending young players on both sides of the ball. As for Matthew Stafford, it’s been noticeable to other teams how he looks healthy for the first time in a while. One rival exec put it like this: “It’s obvious the energy and enthusiasm that Stafford is playing with.”
- X-factor: The health of the Rams’ legacy players—Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald. If we’re going to bring this up with the Bucs, you have to with the core guys in L.A., especially since all three had injury problems a year ago.
- Fatal flaw: Kicker. The Rams just waived Lucas Havrisik and brought back veteran Brett Maher last week. And things have been shaky enough to prompt McVay to get more aggressive in spots on fourth down. So this area is certainly one to watch.
- Under-the-radar player: The Rams have a couple of rookies they’ve come to rely on heavily in interior defensive lineman Kobie Turner and edge Byron Young. Both are viable Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates with 16 sacks between them (Turner actually has more than Donald does on the year).
- Big unknown: Whether the secondary will hold up if the front can’t wreak havoc as you’d expect it to with Donald.
7 Green Bay Packers (9–8)
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- Division finish: second, NFC North
- Why they’ll win it all: Because Jordan Love has exceeded all realistic expectations in his first year as the starting quarterback, and the Packers have a nice blend of experience and youth on both sides of the ball. Love has a deep group of young weapons around him, a battle-tested run game, and the defense has top-end talent at the premium positions.
- X-factor: Health at receiver and tight end. It’s been an issue all year, with the availability of guys such as Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave in question just last week (all but Watson wound up playing against the Bears). So just who they’re playing next weekend will merit watching, as will their ability to keep the best group of players they can out there.
- Fatal flaw: Inconsistency on defense. Even with front-line players such as Jaire Alexander, Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark around, and another wave of really solid role players there, too, the Packers have had ups and downs against the run and pass. Their ability to adjust on the fly on that side of the ball has been a question, too.
- Under-the-radar player: Musgrave. He’s had an injury marred rookie year, but is a matchup nightmare. And if he’s getting closer to full speed, putting him out there with guys such as Watson and Reed could be trouble for defenses.
- Big unknown: How an offensive line group that leaned on more youth this week will hold up next week against one of the NFL’s best fronts with Parsons, Lawrence and the Cowboys.
