There’s a saying that becomes more relevant as the NFL draft approaches: “Vegas knows.”
Last year, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud was a favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL draft when the Carolina Panthers acquired the selection from the Chicago Bears. But suddenly in the last weeks before draft day, Alabama’s Bryce Young surged ahead of Stroud and became an overwhelming favorite to be the selection.
So with the 2024 NFL draft now just a little over two weeks away, what can we glean from the direction oddsmakers are leaning for each selection? Here’s what round one would look like if the betting favorite — or the closest to one — landed in each spot, according to the latest lines posted by BetMGM:
1
Chicago Bears (from Carolina): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
If oddsmakers are to be believed, this is a lock. Williams is -10000 to be the No. 1 overall pick.
2
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
It’s close to a toss-up, but Daniels is -150 to be the No. 2 pick with North Carolina’s Drake Maye not far behind at +140. Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy is a distant third at +850.
3
New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
If Maye doesn’t end up going No. 2 overall, oddsmakers expect him to come off the board next. He’s +100 to be the No. 3 pick.
4
Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
The Cardinals are a prime candidate for a trade, but oddsmakers are still leaning toward Harrison being the pick with -200 odds for the receiver to be the No. 4 selection.
5
Los Angeles Chargers: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
At +200, he’s far from a runaway favorite but Nabers is the direction oddsmakers are leaning for the fifth pick. Harrison Jr., who already came off the board, has the second best odds at +300.
6
New York Giants: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Nabers is actually the favorite at +150 to be the sixth pick. But with the LSU receiver already gone, we turn to Odunze, whose +350 odds are second best.
7
Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
The Titans are well positioned to take the first offensive lineman of the class and there’s -120 odds that Alt lands at No. 7 overall.
8
Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
The Falcons get the first defensive player off the board and oddsmakers have Turner at +175 to be the No. 8 pick. No other player is better than +700.
9
Chicago Bears: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Odunze (+250) is actually the favorite to be the No. 9 pick, but he already came off the board three selections ago. Instead, it’s Verse at +500 to bolster the Bears pass rush.
10
New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Bowers is at +250 to be the No. 10 overall pick and become Aaron Rodgers’ newest weapon.
11
Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
After the top 10, BetMGM no longer offers lines on each pick. Still, there are McCarthy odds and the Vikings are +100 to be his future team.
12
Denver Broncos: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
It’s a little earlier than most have projected for Nix, but oddsmakers have set -125 odds that the Broncos take a quarterback first and -150 odds that Nix winds up in Denver. That’s a lot of smoke pointing toward the Oregon quarterback at No. 12 overall.
13
Las Vegas Raiders: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
The Raiders are +140 to take an offensive lineman with their first pick, narrowly ahead of their +175 odds to take a cornerback. If they choose to build in the trenches, Fuaga has the second best odds (+350) to be the first lineman drafted, so we’ll go with him.
14
New Orleans Saints: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
The Saints’ pick is based off similar deductions as the last selection. New Orleans is -200 to take an offensive lineman first and Fashanu has the third best odds (+650) behind Alt and Fuaga to be the first lineman drafted.
15
Indianapolis Colts: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Oddsmakers have set +130 odds that the Colts will take a cornerback and Mitchell has the best odds at being the first player taken at the position.
16
Seattle Seahawks: J.C. Latham, OL, Alabama
The Seahawks are listed at -150 to take an offensive lineman first. Picking one for the team isn’t as easy, though. Latham has the next best odds to be the first lineman taken after the ones already off the board, but he may project as a tackle and Seattle likely needs interior help. An immediate impact inside could be in Latham’s future, though.
17
Jacksonville Jaguars: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Jaguars are +100 to make a cornerback their first choice and this isn’t a hard deduction with Mitchell already headed to the Colts. Arnold has the second best odds at being the first cornerback picked.
18
Cincinnati Bengals: Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
The Bengals are -165 to take a lineman first. Without many odds to provide guidance for who would be the next player taken at the position, we’ll go with Fautanu.
19
Los Angeles Rams: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
The Rams are -150 to take a defensive lineman or edge rusher first. Latu, who is +500 to be the first defensive player drafted, gets the nod over Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II for this spot.
20
Pittsburgh Steelers: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The Steelers are -200 to take an offensive lineman first and the crop is getting a little thin at this point. Mims fits the bill for Pittsburgh.
21
Miami Dolphins: Graham Barton, OT, Duke
The Dolphins are -130 to take an offensive lineman first and it’d make sense to look at the interior. With Latham and Fautanu off the board, we’ll look to Barton as the next player with guard in his future.
22
Philadelphia Eagles: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The Eagles are +110 to take a cornerback first. Wiggins was given a little better odds than Iowa’s Cooper DeJean to be the next player taken at the position after Mitchell and Arnold.
23
Minnesota Vikings (from Cleveland through Houston): Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
This is a bit of a shot in the dark as oddsmakers have provided guidance on the Vikings’ first pick, but not much on their second. A receiver makes sense and Thomas has the best odds at being the first player taken after the top trio goes early.
24
Dallas Cowboys: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
The Cowboys are -160 to take an offensive lineman, but where on the line they’d go is tough to say. After losing Tyler Biadasz in free agency, Powers-Johnson could be the choice to take over at center.
25
Green Bay Packers: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
The Packers are -120 to take an offensive lineman first. We’ll give Guyton the nod over Arizona’s Jordan Morgan for this spot.
26
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
There’s no clear consensus for what the Buccaneers will do at No. 26 overall. Oddsmakers placed +185 odds on defensive lineman/edge being the pick, but +210 odds on an offensive lineman and +220 on a cornerback. If they go the first route, we’ll go Robinson with Turner, Verse, and Latu all off the board.
27
Arizona Cardinals (from Houston): Darius Robinson, EDGE, Missouri
Like the Vikings a few picks earlier, there isn’t much from oddsmakers for a team’s second of two first-round picks. The Cardinals could use help in their defensive front seven and Robinson makes sense in Jonathan Gannon’s scheme.
28
Buffalo Bills: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Wide receiver is up to -250 to be the Bills’ first pick after the Stefon Diggs trade. While Worthy’s teammate Adonai Mitchell would make sense, Worthy is the one tied with Brian Thomas Jr. for the fourth best odds to be the first receiver taken.
29
Detroit Lions: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
The Lions have +130 odds at making a cornerback their first pick. With three off the board already, it’s not hard to land on DeJean as the next best option at the position.
30
Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
The Ravens are -155 to make an offensive lineman their first pick. With so many already gone, Morgan is the best of the remaining group late in Day 1.
31
San Francisco 49ers: Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
Like so many other teams, offensive line has the best odds (-115) to be the 49ers’ first choice. With the position largely stripped bare at this point, Suamataia makes a relatively surprising appearance in the first round.
32
Kansas City Chiefs: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Wide receiver is at -115 to be the first pick for the defending Super Bowl champs. Five were picked in the first 28 picks, but Mitchell is a nice consolation prize at the end of the round.
