The Super Bowl finally comes our way on Sunday, and with it the 2023 NFL season comes to an end. It’s a bittersweet moment, but it also means the official start to NFL draft season for many.
While many within the community have been doing work on the draft for months, this is when the rest of the NFL world begins to really pay attention to the draft and starts thinking about next season.
The final piece of the NFL draft puzzle will fall into place on Sunday, as the final two spots in the first round become solidified with the Super Bowl result. With that, the next big piece of the puzzle comes in a couple of weeks with the NFL Scouting Combine. That’s when both teams and the media get to see what sort of athletic testing numbers these prospects put up.
Those numbers, for better or worse, will have a major impact on a lot of NFL draft stocks, and the mock drafts from there on out could look wildly different than they do right now. So with that as our framework, let’s take another stab at the first round as things stand today.
1. Chicago Bears: USC QB Caleb Williams
It feels like a foregone conclusion at this point that the Chicago Bears are going to move on from current quarterback Justin Fields and usher in a new era. Whether or not that turns out to be the right choice remains to be seen, but the logic behind the move is understandable. If you’re not 100% behind the QB you have in-house, reset at the position under a rookie contract and build the team around him.
It also seems like a foregone conclusion at this point that, whether it’s the Bears or some other team, USC quarterback Caleb Williams is going to be the first player off the board for the 2024 NFL draft. The Bears need a quarterback, and Williams is the top one available. No need to over-think this.
2. Washington Commanders: North Carolina QB Drake Maye
There’s been a lot of buzz recently about former North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye potentially sliding down the NFL draft board. While that may be the case, I don’t see a scenario where Maye falls too far. There are three teams at the top of the draft board who need a quarterback, and there are three prospects who are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the class.
Ultimately, I think the Commanders will make the safe choice and take Maye with the second pick. They have a new regime coming in, and what better way to start off than with a new quarterback? Maye feels like a fit in Washington. Now it’ll just be about what they can build around him.
3. New England Patriots: LSU QB Jayden Daniels
There are two ways to look at the New England Patriots’ situation with having the third pick in the draft. On the one hand, you could say they’re in the unenviable position of being left with a prospect the other two QB-needy teams didn’t want. On the other hand, you could say that they’re guaranteed to get a great prospect at the most important position in football — if not all of sports.
Either way you slice it, the Patriots need a quarterback. Mac Jones hasn’t had the greatest of circumstances since he’s been in New England, but he’s also shown that he’s probably not *the* guy, either. New England also has a new regime coming in, and will likely want to hit the reset button as well.
Here they’re getting the prospect who arguably has the lowest floor of them all in Jayden Daniels from LSU. But while he may have the lowest floor, he may also have the highest ceiling when you factor in just how athletic he is. It’s a high risk/high reward scenario, but that’s what the NFL draft is all about at the top.
4. Arizona Cardinals: Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
It took until the fourth pick, but we finally have our first non-quarterback taken. It should come as no surprise that the pick is Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr. Harrison, the son of former Indianapolis Colts wide receiver and Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison Sr., is arguably the best prospect in the entire class. Position value pushes the quarterbacks ahead, but there’s no question Harrison is in a class by himself as a prospect.
There’s an outside shot that Harrison comes off the board with the first pick. If the Bears decide they want to stick things out with Fields, it would be foolish of them not to take Harrison. Ulitmately, I believe they’re going to move on from Fields, making Harrison “slip” down to the Cardinals at 4.
LSU receiver Malik Nabers could be in play here, as well, but Harrison just makes the most sense here.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: LSU WR Malik Nabers
While LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers likely won’t be the first wide receiver to hear his name called in April, he shouldn’t have to wait too much longer after that first to hear his name. It’s likely a two-horse race for WR1 in this year’s draft, with Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr. just edging out Nabers.
Nabers going fifth to the Chargers could be a dream scenario for both the Chargers and Nabers himself. Like the teams before, the Chargers are also coming into 2024 with some major changes, namely former Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh taking over the lead role in Los Angeles.
Pairing Nabers with Harbaugh and superstar quarterback Justin Herbert could lead to big things right out of the gates for Nabers.
6. New York Giants: Iowa CB Cooper DeJean
Of all the teams picking in the top 10 of the 2024 NFL draft, the New York Giants might be in the worst position of them all. You can make a case that they need a quarterback, but won’t be in a position to grab one of the top prospects.
On the other hand, the Giants might be perfectly okay with Daniel Jones — to whom they gave a big contract extension last year — and want to build around him with weapons. Well, they’re not likely in a position to get one of the top playmakers in the 2024 NFL draft, either, with both Harrison and Nabers coming off the board before them.
They could take Brock Bowers as a playmaker, but they already have Darren Waller at the position and doubling up at tight end isn’t a great use of resources. So what’s left for the Giants? Upgrading on the other side of the ball and taking Iowa cornerback Cooper DeJean.
Cornerback may not be the most pressing need for the Giants, but it is certainly a need, and DeJean is the top prospect at the position — and well worth a top 10 selection.
7. Tennessee Titans: Georgia TE Brock Bowers
The New York Giants’ loss is the Tennessee Titans’ gain. While the Giants could use another playmaker in their offense, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for them to get one at tight end. The Titans, however, also need more playmakers in their offense and *do* need someone at tight end.
Georgia tight end Brock Bowers is easily the top tight end prospect in the draft, and he might be the most undisputed top position player in the entire draft. He’s arguably also the safest pick in the 2024 NFL draft.
There are some injury concerns with Bowers, but aside from those, he should be able to come in and immediately make an impact on the Titans offense — or whichever offense is lucky enough to snatch him up.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Washington WR Rome Odunze
Like a lot of the teams at the top of the 2024 NFL draft, the Atlanta Falcons have a new regime coming in, who are going to want to get *their* guys into the fold as quickly as possible. That likely spells the end of quarterback Desmond Ridder in Atlanta, but the Falcons aren’t in a position to get a replacement in this draft.
Atlanta could be a prime candidate to trade for Bears quarterback Justin Fields if and when they move on from him, but for now we’ll leave that projection for another time. For now, they aren’t in a position to get a quarterback unless they want to reach for one. Instead, it’d be much more wise to fill out the weapons around whomever the quarterback eventually will be.
That means taking Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze. Odunze was instrumental in the Huskies’ potent offense in 2023 — an offense that took them all the way to the National Championship game against Michigan. Pairing Odunze with Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts, along with Bijan Robinson in the backfield, should make Atlanta one of the better offenses in the league — if they can get things right at QB.
9. Chicago Bears: Illinois DT Jer'Zhan Newton
The Chicago Bears are likely hoping to get an offensive weapon to be able to pair with their new quarterback. The team is pretty thin at wide receiver and has been trying to upgrade the position for awhile now. Unfortunately for them, it doesn’t look like they’re going to be able to with the second of their two top-10 picks.
With Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze all off the board before Chicago’s second pick, it doesn’t make much sense for them to reach for another receiver. With Brock Bowers off the board as well, that takes away their option to take a tight end with wide receiver skills.
So, instead, they’re left in a position to improve the defense with Illinois defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton. Newton may be a little undersized for the position, but what he lacks in size he makes up for in strength and motor. He should make a great addition to the Bears interior defense, and won’t have to go far to do it.
10. New York Jets: Oregon State OT Taliese Fuaga
The New York Jets are in a bit of an odd predicament. They have a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a pretty devastating injury in a ruptured Achilles’ tendon. They need to start thinking about life after Aaron Rodgers. On the other hand, they’re not going to draft his replacement, and aren’t in a position to do so even if they wanted to.
So what’s the next best thing? Getting some protection in front of Rodgers to try and keep him healthy for as long as possible. The injury last year was a fluke and not really on the offensive line. That said, there is a lot of room for improvement in that unit.
Oregon State offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga would provide that improvement immediately. He could come in on day 1 and take over the team’s starting left tackle position from incumbent Mekhi Becton, providing an immediate upgrade.
11. Minnesota Vikings: Florida State EDGE Jared Verse
In the first mock draft I did, I had the Minnesota Vikings making a controversial pick and taking Penn State offensive tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu with this pick. Today, we’re playing it safe and going with Florida State EDGE Jared Verse.
Minnesota has a decision to make in the offseason with OLB Danielle Hunter. Hunter had a career year in 2023 and is likely in line for a pretty significant pay bump. Are the Vikings going to be the ones to give him that? Will he go elsewhere to cash in? The answer to that is going to have an effect on the draft plans for the Vikings.
I think the majority of draft forecasters anticipate Hunter being gone in 2024, which leaves a massive void at pass rusher for the Vikings. Verse would go a long way towards lessening that blow. He won’t come in and immediately replicate Hunter’s production, but he should have an immediate impact.
12. Denver Broncos: Penn State OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu
Instead of going at 11 to the Minnesota Vikings, in this 2024 NFL mock draft, Penn State offensive tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu goes one spot later to the Denver Broncos. Denver has questions at quarterback with the late-season benching of Russell Wilson, but they’re not necessarily in a position to address those questions through the NFL draft.
Denver could reach for someone like Oregon quarterback Bo Nix or Washington quarterback Michael Penix, but it may be smarter for the team to create a better situation for their eventual QB rather than address the issue now. Denver could use a solid protector along the offensive line, and Fashanu provides that in spades.
13. Las Vegas Raiders: Notre Dame OT Joe Alt
It may surprise some to see Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt still on the board at this point. He’s considered by many to be the top offensive tackle in the 2024 NFL draft class, but I think there’s a good case to be made for Fashanu being ahead of him. Either way, they’re clearly the top two at the position, and teams can’t go wrong either way.
With a wealth of talent at critical offensive positions and a number of teams needing skill position help, the top two offensive tackles fall outside the top 10 here, and the Raiders are one of the big beneficiaries. Pairing Alt with Kolton Miller could provide the Raiders with a great pair of tackles for many years to come.
14. New Orleans Saints: Alabama EDGE Dallas Turner
So far the offense has dominated this 2024 NFL mock draft, but the New Orleans Saints are relatively strong on that side of the ball. They have a solid, but not outstanding, quarterback in Derek Carr. They have one of the better young receivers in Chris Olave, and they have a solid offensive line in front of Carr. Where they do need help is on defense.
Specifically, the Saints could stand to get better at rushing the passer. That’s where Alabama EDGE Dallas Turner comes in. Turner may not be a great fit for what Saints head coach Dennis Allen is looking for at the position, but he has all the physical tools to come in and immediately improve the Saints’ pass rush prowess.
15. Indianapolis Colts: Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell
One of the best things about the All-Star bowl game circuit is that it gives small-school players a chance to shine on a big stage against much tougher competition. It’s their chance to show that they belong, and can really springboard their NFL draft stock.
Perhaps no one helped their draft stock more at the Reese’s Senior Bowl this year than Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell. Mitchell already had some buzz coming into the week in Mobile, but he was able to capitalize on his opportunity in a big way, and has become one of the hottest names at the position.
The Indianapolis Colts have a big need at the position, and Mitchell could be the guy to fill that need. This might be a bit early for Mitchell, but he’s certainly in the discussion and may go higher than a lot of people think.
16. Seattle Seahawks: Clemson CB Nate Wiggins
It may surprise some to see Quinyon Mitchell come off the board before Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins or Alabama’s Terrion Arnold, but the buzz around Mitchell is at a high right now, and he has the talent to back that buzz up.
That said, Wiggins and Arnold absolutely have that talent, too, and they shouldn’t be waiting long to hear their names called when the 2024 NFL draft kicks off in April. Both players are top-half caliber talents, and Seattle is getting arguably the best one here with Wiggins.
Wiggins fits what the Seahawks like to do with their cornerbacks and the profile they want from the position. Pairing him up with Riq Woolen presents a nightmare scenario for opposing offensive coordinators.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Alabama CB Terrion Arnold
The run on cornerbacks in the middle of the first round continues with the Jacksonville Jaguars taking Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold. Arnold is highly-talented and should help turn around a Jaguars defense that has a long way to go in a tough AFC.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Malik Naber got the lion’s share of the attention in the LSU offense, and rightfully so, but don’t overlook the contributions of fellow receiver Brian Thomas Jr. There’s already a wealth of talent at the position in Cincinnati, but with both Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins set to be unrestricted free agents, the Bengals could opt to draft a receiver and let one or both of those players walk.
19. Los Angeles Rams: Oregon QB Bo Nix
Matthew Stafford’s days in Los Angeles are numbered. He’s 36 years old and has taken a beating over his NFL career. The Rams sooner or later have to start thinking about life after Stafford, and now may be the perfect opportunity. In a perfect world, Nix could come in and sit behind Stafford for a year before being handed the reigns.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Alabama OT JC Latham
If there’s one thing the Steelers are known for historically, it’s smash-mouth football. They’ve gotten away from that in recent years, and a porous offensive line has something to do with that. Pittsburgh could stand to improve, and JC Latham from Alabama would be a major upgrade.
21. Miami Dolphins: Georgia OT Amarius Mims
The Miami Dolphins have a potent offense, but it’s tough to be explosive and play fast if you can’t protect the quarterback. The offensive line struggled mightily when Terron Armstead went down with injury. Bringing in Georgia offensive tackle Amarius Mims would take a lot of the pressure off Armstead, and provide insurance in case he goes down again.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Alabama CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
We’ve had a brief respite from the cornerback parade, but we’re back at it with the Philadelphia Eagles at 22. Here they boost their defense with another Alabama product, cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry. Aside from having arguably the best name in the entire 2024 NFL draft class, McKinstry can make an argument for being the most talented in an incredibly deep class.
23. Houston Texans: Oregon OL Jackson Powers-Johnson
It seems pretty clear after just one season that the Houston Texans got it right with the selection of Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud had an incredible rookie season and is a front-runner for the Rookie of the Year Award. Now the focus should be on keeping him protected. Oregon offensive lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson can do that as either a center or guard.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Texas DL Byron Murphy II
Every year there are certain players that just feel like they belong on certain teams, with no real concrete way to explain it other than vibes. For me one of those situations this year is Texas DL Byron Murphy II going to the Cowboys. I’m not sure what it is about Murphy, but he just feels like a Cowboy to me.
25. Green Bay Packers: UCLA EDGE Laiatu Latu
Where UCLA EDGE Laiatu Latu winds up going in the 2024 NFL draft is going to depend a lot on his medicals. Once medically retired, he’s going to be poured over by the medical staff at the NFL Scouting Combine. If his checks come back clean, Latu could potentially be a top 10 pick. But that uncertainty could lead to him sliding. If he does, he won’t get out of the first round, and Green Bay is likely his floor.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
Like Latu before him, the draft stock of Washington QB Michael Penix is going to depend on his medical checks at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine. Penix dealt with a slew of injuries during his time at Indiana, and those red flags could cause him to fall completely out of the first round.
If those checks come back clean, he could be a mid-first-rounder. Ultimately I think he’ll land somewhere in between. Tampa Bay could be a good landing spot for him, as current quarterback Baker Mayfield isn’t likely to be the long-term answer, but would be a good guy to sit behind for a year and learn from.
27. Arizona Cardinals: Washington OT Troy Fautanu
Like a number of teams before them, the primary focus for the Arizona Cardinals should be on keeping quarterback Kyler Murray healthy and upright. The offensive line in Arizona has been questionable, and Washington offensive tackle Troy Fautanu can come in and immediately provide an upgrade.
28. Buffalo Bills: Texas WR Adonai Mitchell
The Buffalo Bills have consistently been one of the best offenses — and teams — in the NFL over the past few seasons. However, they can’t seem to get over the hump and get through the AFC to a Super Bowl. Giving wide receiver Stefon Diggs a complement on the other side could be exactly what the team needs. Texas WR Adonai Mitchell could be that complement.
29. Detroit Lions: Washington EDGE Bralen Trice
The upstart Detroit Lions fell just short of making a remarkable run to the Super Bowl. Part of the reason they ultimately fell short is not having enough pieces on defense to complement pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson. Washington EDGE Bralen Trice could come in and give the Lions defense another legitimate threat opposite Hutchinson to give opposing offenses more to worry about.
30. Baltimore Ravens: Oregon WR Troy Franklin
If the Baltimore Ravens want to compete in the AFC with the likes of the Chiefs, Bills, and the upstart Houston Texans, it’s clear they need to get more firepower on offense. Lamar Jackson is a one-of-one talent, but he can only do so much. Getting Oregon wide receiver Troy Franklin in the fold would give the Ravens a legitimate #1 receiver that they’ve needed for years.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Missouri CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
Yes, with the San Francisco 49ers picking 31, I’m predicting a Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl win. One of the factors keeping the 49ers from taking home the trophy is a need at cornerback. Rakestraw has the size and athleticism to come in and contribute right away and help fill a need for the NFC champions.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Georgia WR Ladd McConkey
All season the talk around the Kansas City Chiefs was that they were weak at wide receiver. They pushed through that talk and made it to the Super Bowl, but that doesn’t mean the talk was wrong. The Chiefs do need more from their wide receivers, and Georgia WR Ladd McConkey is the perfect type for what Andy Reid and the Chiefs want to do on offense.
