What’s the riskiest position for an NFL team to spend a first-round draft pick on?
According to an ESPN analysis from 2000-2019, the position that “hit” the least in the first round was wide receiver. Of the 77 wide receivers taken in the first round of the NFL draft, only 27 percent went on to earn a second contract with the team that drafted them.
ESPN content producer @PaulHembo calculated the percentage of 1st-round picks that “hit” or “miss,” based upon whether that player signed a second contract with the team that drafted them.
The data encompasses the 20 drafts spanning 2000-2019. Here are the positional hit rates: pic.twitter.com/mSannLz6OC— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 24, 2024
The Giants are in prime position to select one of this draft’s top three wideouts at No. 6 overall. They will likely be staring at one or more of the following: Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze of Washington, and LSU’s Malik Nabers.
Since 2000, the Giants have only used a first-round pick on a wide receiver three times — Hakeem Nicks (2009), Odell Beckham Jr. (2014), and Kadarius Toney (2021).
One could argue they hit on two, but according to the above metric, they technically hit on Beckham only.
Nicks played five seasons for the Giants and was an integral piece on their Super Bowl XLVI championship team. He did not re-sign with the Giants after his five-year, $12.54 million deal with the club expired after the 2013 season.
Nicks signed with the Indianapolis Colts in 2014 but then came back and finished his career with the Giants in 2015.
Beckham played five seasons for the Giants and did earn a second contract with the club but was traded in a blockbuster deal to the Cleveland Browns in 2019
Toney had all kinds of issues as a Giant. He suffered from a combination of injuries and inconsistency. The Giants dealt him to Kansas City in 2022 for a third-round pick and a sixth-rounder.
