Schedule strength for running backs considers both rushing and receiving yards as today’s players rarely rely on just running production anymore. The analysis also considers the venue. There is a difference between how defenses respond either home or away, which creates 64 “different defensive matchups” depending on where the game is played.
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The scoring was a point for every 10 yards rushing or receiving, six-point touchdowns, and a point per reception. The average fantasy points allowed to running backs are at the bottom of this page for reference. Running backs prove to be most sensitive to schedule strength of any position.
Total Points
Below are the total points for each backfield according to their schedule using the averages allowed in 2023 by those defenses.
Weekly Play
Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says to draft by considering the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoff weeks. “Good” games against a Top-22 venue from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the Bottom-22.
Best schedule strength
Tyjae Spears/Tony Pollard (TEN) – The schedule is less important than installing an entirely different offensive scheme, but it is a factor. Especially when the Titans own the most advantageous set of opponents in the NFL based from last year’s stats, the O-line is still a work in progress, and the passing effort should be more productive than it has for many years. There should be fewer carries than in recent seasons, but either Tyjae Spears or Tony Pollard could surprise – if they can earn the bigger share in this committee approach post-Derrick Henry.
Kyren Williams/Blake Corum (LAR) – Kyren Williams took over in his second season and starting in Week 12, was as good as any fantasy running back in 2023. Now, he enjoys one of the best schedules with just three bad venues and a solid six best venues. It should propel Williams to being an elite back again this year, but the addition of Blake Corum potentially muddies the waters with a committee approach of some measure. But Williams’ injury history could mean Corum gets at least a few games to himself.
Austin Ekeler/Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) – This is another situation where the offense will be all new, and the O-line is a concern. There will also be a committee involving Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson. However, the Commanders benefit from one of the lighter slates of opponents, and the backfield should profit with four of the final five fantasy games being at home. A Week 14 bye won’t help teams in large contests for their playoffs.
Travis Etienne (JAC) – The schedule is better than most, but not hugely advantageous. Facing two good venues and no bad ones during fantasy playoffs is a plus for the player who ended as the No. 3 fantasy running back last year on a team that did not bother to get any new help for the backfield.
Worst schedule strength
Zamir White/Alexander Mattison (LV) – The Raiders are installing a new offense with OC Luke Getsy from Chicago, and they lost Josh Jacobs. The addition of Alexander Mattison to the backfield isn’t encouraging and Zamir White enters his third season with a spotty resume. Throw in an NFL-worst schedule for fantasy backs and the attraction is even less. Starting in Week 6, the Raiders face seven bad venues and only one light matchup.
Christian McCaffrey (SF) – Certainly, if any back is better than his schedule, it would be Christian McCaffrey. There’s no denying how productive he is when healthy and helped many fantasy teams reach their playoffs. The 49ers get three bad venues for the fantasy playoff weeks, but McCaffrey tends to just turn into a receiver when needed.
James Conner/Trey Benson (ARI) – Conner comes off his career-best season, but he turns 30 next year, and the Cardinals snapped up the second overall running back in the NFL draft when they picked Trey Benson. It will be a committee that will most likely evolve as the season progresses and Conner always misses three or four games. Their schedule works against them with an NFL-worst eight games played at toughest venues. And it works out poorly when they start out with almost nothing but bad matchups for the first half of the season, then brighten up with four of the next five games against easier opponents. And then, back to facing three tough defenses to end their fantasy year.
Ezekiel Elliott/Rico Dowdle (DAL) – The largest concern is the quality of rushers – an aging Ezekiel Elliott is back and paired with Rico Dowdle. There’s a chance that the Cowboys will find someone, anyone, after the final cutdown, but they only get four games in easier venues and seven with the tougher opponents.
Zack Moss (CIN) – The Bengals let Joe Mixon leave for the Texans and replaced him with Zack Moss, who has never been better than the No. 31 fantasy back. Chase Brown will figure in and the backfield looks less appealing for 2024 when the schedule works against them. Their final five games after the Week 12 bye include three tough matchups and just one softer opponent in Week 17.
2024 weekly grid
Fantasy points allowed per game
These are the values from 2023 that were applied to this year’s schedule to determine strength of schedule for running backs.
