Every week, NFL games come down to matchups.
Unlike baseball, where 162 games are played and the main reason for winning and losing—the starting pitcher—changes every night, football is a sprint where the players are repeated in the lineups time and again.
For those reasons, stats are both important and hard to judge.
Sure, numbers can give clues about the best games of the upcoming week, but often the sample size is small. So in this weekly piece, we won’t be looking at overarching figures often but more an important pivot on which games can and will turn. Football is about yardage and points, but games are won in red zones and on third downs, in turnover ratios and pressure rates.
Here then are the most important matchups for Week 1, starting with the NFL’s opening game of the season in Kansas City.
All statistics are courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
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Thursday
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports (Mahomes); Kirthmon F. Dozier/USA TODAY Network (Goff)
Key matchup: Lions’ new secondary vs. Patrick Mahomes
Last season, the Lions allowed 7.0 net yards per pass attempt, better than only the Bears. In Kansas City, Mahomes led the best attack for that metric at 7.5 net yards per pass. For Detroit to win, Mahomes can’t go off all night.
Sunday
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Key matchup: Which beleaguered unit will win in the red zone?
Last year third down was a disaster for both the Panthers’ offense and the Falcons’ defense, with the units ranking 30th and 31st, respectively.
So when Bryce Young is on the field, who wins the majority of the third-down battles will determine the outcome.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
David Dermer/USA TODAY Sports
Key matchup: The Browns’ pass rush vs. Joe Burrow
For all the tropes about Cincinnati’s offensive line, the Bengals do a good job of scheming. Last year the Bengals allowed pressure on only 16.7% of their dropbacks, third-best in football.
So if the Browns are going to win their home opener, Myles Garrett & Co. will need to disrupt the pocket and get pressure on Burrow. That was an issue for Cleveland under former defensive coordinator Joe Woods, as the Browns finished 27th in pressure rate (18.2%) a year ago.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Key matchup: Indy’s mistake-prone offense vs. Jacksonville’s opportunistic defense
Indianapolis committed a league-leading 33 turnovers in 2022, six more than any other team. Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s defense was mediocre but did a good job of creating takeaways, ranking tied for fourth with 27.
With Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson making his NFL debut, turnovers could loom large.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings
Key matchup: Minnesota’s offensive line vs. Tampa Bay’s blitz
In 2022, Kirk Cousins was hit 84 times, a dozen more than Justin Herbert, who finished second in the category. As for Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers ranked 10th in blitz rate at 28.3%.
Cousins has a plethora of skill-position players to find, such as Justin Jefferson, but he often pays the price. Expect Cousins’s willingness to hang in the pocket to be tested often.
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints
Key matchup: Can Derek Carr avoid the big mistake against Tennessee’s defense?
In a game that figures to be close, Carr finished tied for fourth last year in bad throw percentage at 20%. It’s also the highest figure of any projected starter going into 2023. Meanwhile, Tannehill was third-best in the NFL at 12%, trailing only Geno Smith and Kyler Murray.
San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Key matchup: Steelers’ offense against 49ers’ defense in the red zone
Can Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett find the end zone? It won’t be easy.
In 2022, the Steelers finished dead last with 12 touchdown passes, while the Niners ranked tied for fifth, with only 20 touchdown passes allowed.
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders
Key matchup: Cardinals’ defense vs. Commanders’ playmakers
Washington quarterback Sam Howell will be making only his second career NFL start, and it will come against a Cardinals team that last year allowed a league-high 2,559 yards after the catch. They also missed 83 tackles, the fifth-highest mark in football.
If Arizona can’t tackle or take away easy yards, it could be a nice game for Howell.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Key matchup: Houston’s running offense vs. Baltimore’s run defense
Can Dameon Pierce help C.J. Stroud in his debut? It might be tough.
In 2022, Pierce was excellent as a rookie with 939 rushing yards in 13 games. However, the Texans finished 31st in yards per attempt at 3.7. Complicating matters, Baltimore’s run defense was third in yards allowed per carry (3.9), behind only the Titans and 49ers.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Key matchup: The Bears’ new offensive line handling Green Bay’s pressure.
Under coordinator Joe Barry, the Packers blitzed fifth-most in the NFL, at 32.5% in 2022. Meanwhile, Justin Fields held the ball more than any other passer last season at 2.7 seconds per pass while being sacked on a league-worst 13.3% of dropbacks.
Fields’s unloading the ball quicker against the Packers has to be a priority.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Key matchup: Broncos’ tacklers vs. Josh Jacobs
Last year Denver led the NFL in missed tackles with 98, eight more than the second-worst. With Jacobs at running back, Las Vegas paced the league with 2.1 yards per carry after contact.
The Broncos have to get multiple defenders to Jacobs … and tackle.
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots
Tom Horak/USA TODAY Sports
Key matchup: Mac Jones vs. the Eagles’ front
Last year Jones had the quickest pocket time of any quarterback in the NFL, averaging 2.2 seconds per dropback.
Meanwhile, the Eagles got pressure on 25.5% of dropbacks—coming in behind only the Cowboys—while recording a league-best 70 sacks.
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers
Key matchup: Kellen Moore’s offense vs. Miami’s defense
Last season the Dolphins led the league in yards before catch per reception at 8.1. Conversely, the Chargers checked in 31st at 4.6.
Moore’s Cowboys? They ranked tied for eighth (6.3) despite starting quarterback Cooper Rush for five games while Dak Prescott was injured.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Key matchup: Seattle’s red zone offense vs. L.A.’s red zone defense
Last season Seattle’s offense ranked 28th in red-zone efficiency, while Los Angeles, for all of its issues, was the NFL’s best at 44.4%.
For the Rams to pull an upset, they’ll need to turn seven points into three.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Key matchup: Dallas’s red zone offense vs. New York’s red zone defense
In 2022, Dallas’s offense ranked first with a 71.4% conversion rate. However, the Giants were also strong defensively in the red area, checking in fifth at 49.2%.
If Wink Martindale’s unit can limit the Cowboys to short field goals, the advantage will swing to the Giants.
Monday
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports
Key matchup: Josh Allen vs. New York’s tight coverage
In 2022, Allen threw for more air yards than any other quarterback, with 2,691. However, the Jets’ defense consistently kept offenses in front of them, allowing only 1,766 air yards, fourth-best in the league.
If Allen can connect on some deep shots, that may tilt the game in Buffalo’s favor.
