There are several fascinating quarterback movement dramas with six days until the 2023 NFL draft begins. Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, and Trey Lance all might be finding new teams sooner than later if the draft is the tipping point for all of those potential trades, which you think it would be.
In the case of Aaron Rodgers, for the purposes of this mock draft, he gets the move to the Jets that he wanted. In return, the Packers get New York’s 2023 13th overall pick, and a conditional 2024 second-round pick that could conditionally bump up to a first based on certain stipulations, like Rodgers playing football in 2024 and beyond as opposed to going on some sort of vision quest.
Here, we’ll say that Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will eventually come to terms on an agreement that will keep Jackson in Baltimore, though that situation is far from stable at this point — and this could be reflected in my next mock draft as it was in my last one — in this case, conducted with my lovely and talented “4-Down Territory” comrade, Kyle Madson.
As for Trey Lance and the 49ers… well, this was the guy that San Francisco mortgaged three first-round picks to select with the third pick in the 2021 draft, only to find that due to Lance’s injury situation, 2022 Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy was actually far more relevant for Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Things have fallen for Lance to the point where Shanahan has said that Purdy is his starter for the 2023 season, and Lance is left to battle for the backup job with Sam Darnold. who was selected by the Jets with the third overall pick in the 2018 draft.
Maybe never get selected with the third pick in any draft if you want things to go well for you with the 49ers, I guess.
In any event, given that new Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans got his current gig after a spectacular stint as San Francisco’s defensive coordinator, he’s more than familiar with Lance’s potential. And given the fact that the Texans need all the help they can get, roster-wise, let’s say that Houston is able to pry Lance away from the 49ers for the 33rd, 65th, and 73rd picks in this draft.
That gives the Texans flexibility at the top of the draft to go get premier players at other positions as well as a potential franchise quarterback, and the 49ers now actually have real estate in this draft before the 99th pick. We’ll call that a win-win, though punting on a guy you gave that much up for this soon after you did it is hardly a win for Shanahan and his group.
With these marquee trades in mind, and with the benefit of our position list analysis mostly in the barn and our Top 50 big board up, it’s time for a three-round projection, six days before the draft begins.
1. Carolina Panthers (from Chicago Bears): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
The closer we get to the actual draft, the more it seems to be that the Panthers, starting with owner David Tepper, are all on board with Young as the first overall pick. And the only hesitation any NFL team should have with Young is that he comes into the league with the same height/weight profile as Doug Flutie. Other than that, Young has all the tools to succeed — intelligence, mobility, accuracy, ball placement, leadership, and a knack for big plays. It’s a safe high-end pick in all the ways in which Young isn’t an outlier.
2. Houston Texans: Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
The Texans are playing with house money here. Even if Lance doesn’t work out, they can ride DeMeco Ryans’ first season with Davis Mills at quarterback, they have two first-round picks in 2024, and they can just go BPA all over the place this season. And if you’re going BPA, especially non-quarterback BPA, you pretty much have to start with Carter. He’s been doing the car wash with the top teams in the draft regarding his off-field issues, reports are that it’s going well, and he has the potential to define a defense in the same ways Chris Jones has done that with the Chiefs.
At some point very early in this draft, Carter’s talent will win out, and you wouldn’t blame Ryans if he thought that his past as a highly-respected linebacker and defensive coordinator would make his new team the ideal landing spot for a player of Carter’s undeniable ability and volatile intangibles.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
Nothing changes for the Cardinals, except for their new uniforms. They don’t need a quarterback, but they need reinforcements on defense all over the place, and new head coach Jonathan Gannon, the Eagles’ former defensive coordinator, has to be looking at his current front seven with varying degrees of horror. So, let’s give them Anderson, one of the most prolific creators of pressure in this class and in Alabama history (only Derrick Thomas has more sacks for the Crimson Tide). Anderson has every attribute you want in an edge-rusher except for bend around the edge, and I think he could have a T.J. Watt-level impact on his new defense. The Cardinals would settle for a Derek Watt-level impact at this point, and he’s a fullback.
4. Indianapolis Colts: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Given new Colts head coach Shane Steichen’s history as Philly’s offensive coordinator, there’s a legitimate thought that Indy could be in play for Anthony Richardson or Will Levis so that Steichen could run the quarterback run-based offense he ran with Jalen Hurts, and to great effect — certainly with Richardson. But Steichen also has a history with Philip Rivers, and he still values the more “traditional” quarterback attributes just as much. Nobody in this class has better ball placement than Stroud, he’s more functionally mobile than people have thought, and he comes into the league able to run an NFL offense right away. I have compared Stroud to a more mobile Philip Rivers, so there you go.
5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos): Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
Both at the scouting combine at in his pre-draft press conference, Seahawks head coach Pete Carrol said over and over how much his team needs to reinforce its front seven. Seattle can bump that process up quite formidably with the addition of Wilson, who was dominant on the field for the Red Raiders (eight sacks and 50 total pressures in just 257 pass-rushing snaps in 2022) despite the fact that he’s still putting things together from a technique perspective. Good luck blocking Wilson and free-agent acquisition Dre’Mont Jones as they crash in on your offensive line from multiple gaps at the same time, and as you will see, we have even more juice for this Seattle front later in the first round.
6. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Yes, the Lions did a ton for their secondary with the free-agency additions of cornerbacks Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley, as well as safety/slotbacker C.J. Gardner-Johnson. But that still leaves Detroit’s defense light in the CB1 category, and if Witherspoon is available with the sixth overall pick, he would give Detroit a fully-realized secondary in one off-season. This is true in part because Detroit selected Illinois safety Kerby Joseph in the third round of the 2022 draft, and Joseph was one of the better mid-round picks last season. So, add that bit of continuity to the picture. Witherspoon has already said that he’s on board with a reunion.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Raiders’ secondary was one of the NFL’s worst in 2022, they didn’t really address that situation in free agency, and they’re in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Ouch. So, Gonzalez would be an incredible addition for Patrick Graham’s defense. Last season for the Ducks, Gonzalez allowed 39 catches on 64 targets last season for 495 yards, 209 yards after the catch, three touchdowns, four interceptions, six pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 74.7. He is the smoothest, most scheme-transcendent cornerback in this class.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Falcons head coach Arthur Smith prefers a heavy play-action offense with multiple tight ends and a power running base. Atlanta has all the parts to work that except for the quarterback (sorry, Desmond Ridder). Richardson would add a developing quarterback sense, unbelievable ability as a runner, and measurables we’ve never seen at the position to that offense. Smith could design all sorts of evil run stuff with Richardson and Tyler Allgeier, and no Falcons receiver or tight end would be able to outrun Richardson’s deep ball. There would be bumps in the road early on, but the payoff could be something else.
9. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers): Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
The Bears wisely traded down from the first overall pick with the knowledge that they don’t need a quarterback, but that they do need just about everything else. They especially need pass protection, and as Braxton Jones is their projected starting left tackle at this point, it might be time to address that early in the draft. Johnson isn’t a perfect prospect, but he’s the best pass-blocking tackle in this class with physical attributes that transition easily to the net level. When people debit C.J. Stroud as a prospect because he was throwing from clean pockets so much of the time… well, here’s the primary reason why.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans Saints): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Speaking of house money, the defending NFC champs have two first-round picks in this draft, and the pick they stole from the Saints is spent on perhaps the most complete and explosive receiver in this class. Defensive coordinators around the league would be stocking up on the ibuprofen when figuring out how to defend Philly’s QB run stuff AND the foursome of Smith-Njigba, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. That could go a long way toward making up for the defensive losses Philly suffered in free agency… and the addition of their new senior defensive assistant.
11. Tennessee Titans: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
The Titans released Taylor Lewan in a cap-saving move, signing former Eagles left tackle Andre Dillard as a low-cost replacement. Even if that works out, Tennessee could use reinforcements at the guard positions. This makes Skoronski an appealing pick. He may have the wherewithal to play tackle in the NFL as he did so well for Northwestern, but with his short wingspan, outstanding technique, and competitive demeanor, he really projects highly as a Zack Martin-style guard who can come in plug-and-play and just start kicking butt from Day 1.
12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns): Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Flowers was my No. 1 receiver in this class, based not only on his tape and production, but also because he was able to do so much despite a quarterback situation at Boston College that bordered on the unacceptable. Transitioning him from an offense in which his vertical speed was camouflaged by quarterbacks throwing him closed, and his route awareness was minimized by guys who couldn’t throw with anticipation, to Bryce Young? That seems like a great strategy.
13. Green Bay Packers (from New York Jets); Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
So, with the pick they get in the Rodgers trade, the Packers take Jordan Love’s new best buddy in the person of Kincaid, my No. 1 tight end in this class. Last season, the Packers ran two tight ends on 131 of their dropbacks, ninth-most in the league, they lost Robert Tonyan to the Bears in free agency, and Kincaid brings an embryonic Travis Kelce-level skill set to the NFL in his ability to destroy zone coverage and win the contested catch battle.
14. New England Patriots: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots’ defensive strategy has generally been to play as much aggressive press coverage as possible, unless their personnel dictates that they do something else. The current secondary projects pretty well for that paradigm, and the addition of Porter could put it over the top. With a wingspan that outdoes a lot of offensive tackles, a scientifically aggressive attitude regarding press, and clear improvements in zone and off coverage in 2022, Porter seems the very definition of the type of cornerback Belichick would find appealing more than most.
15. Green Bay Packers: Brian Branch, DB, Alabama
Now that the Packers have given Jordan Love a great new binky in Dalton Kincaid, it’s time to do something about a secondary that needs some tying together. Few prospects in this class could do more of that more quickly than Branch, the latest in Nick Saban’s preferred defensive backs who can play just about every applicable position on the field. Minkah Fitzpatrick, Branch’s predecessor in that role, ultimately worked best in the NFL as a true deep-third safety. Branch can do that just fine (he was my No. 1 safety in this class), but were I the Packers, I’d have him in the slot just as often.
16. Washington Commanders: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Now we come to the Commanders, with new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and existing defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio. Bieniemy already has a lot of the pieces he needs, especially if Sam Howell becomes the quarterback they want him to be, so let’s give Del Rio the best press-man cornerback in this class for whatever schemes he’s throwing out there. Against today’s quick-game offenses, you’re lost if you can’t press receivers off the line, and last season for the Terps, Banks had the highest rate of press coverage among cornerbacks in this draft class at 45%. Targeting Banks in press coverage was not a great idea — he allowed nine catches on 23 press targets for 46 yards, and only seven of those targets were deemed successes.
We do not know if Del Rio would adapt his ideas to that particular skill set, but we’d encourage him to do so.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Wright was my OT1 in this class in part because his skill set projects so well to the kind of glass-eating, pass-blocking right tackle you want in the NFL, but also because he was able to erase Will Anderson Jr. and BJ Ojulari — two of the SEC’s most prolific pass-rushers — last season, he was able to do it despite their radically different styles, and he was able to explain how he did it at a chapter-and-verse level when I asked him about it at the scouting combine.
Wright also gave Clemson’s Bryan Bresee fits, and you’ll find Bresee a few picks down in the first round. So, when watching Wright, it’s quite easy to imagine the OT-light Steelers running this pick in with all kinds of speed should Wright still be on the boards.
18. Detroit Lions: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
At some point, some team is going to throw out the positional value thing out the window with Bijan Robinson, and understand that he might be the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson. Robinson broke 104 tackles last season, his movement skills are insane, and he’s a legitimate receiver at all three levels of your offense. Adding him to Ben Johnson’s multi-faceted offense would give Jared Goff all the cushion he needs, and add a series of threats most running backs couldn’t dream of posing. You don’t get a Bijan Robinson every year — if you’re lucky, a player like this comes around once in a half-decade. He’s here now, and some team is going to be smart about it.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Would I select Levis in the first round? I would not — he was the 42nd player in my final Top 50, and I bumped him up a bit in the name of positional value. I think he’s worth a late second-round or early third-round grade, but he’s a quarterback, teams need quarterbacks, and there you have it. The Buccaneers need a long-term solution at the position with the understanding that neither Kyle Trask nor Baker Mayfield are it, and they’d have time to maximize Levis’ attributes (athleticism, arm strength, competitiveness), while working on the obvious liabilities (accuracy, decision-making, field-reading). Maybe he’s a second-year starter for the Bucs, who are now learning what the Patriots have known for a few years now: Tom Bradys don’t grow on trees.
20. Seattle Seahawks: Calijah Kancey, DL, Pitt
The Seahawks’ aforementioned needs along the front seven are perhaps most pressing inside, and Kancey would give Pete Carroll an immediate firecracker right in the middle of that front. Kancey blew up the combine with his outstanding measurables, which is nice, but the nicer thing is that it all shows up on tape. Kancey won’t be everybody’s cup of tea as a six-foot, 280-pound interior defensive lineman, but he reminds me of Atlanta’s Grady Jarrett as a speed-to-power earthmover who can disrupt snap after snap with outstanding movement skills.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Now that Justin Herbert has been freed from the constraints of Joe Lombardi’s aDOT-averse passing game, and Kellen Moore is in charge of that offense, it’s time to give Herbert a peerless route runner who can win vertically. That would be Addison, who did so both at Pitt, catching balls from Kenny Pickett, and at USC, getting targets from possible 2024 first-overall pick Caleb Williams. Addison isn’t the biggest receiver, and he won’t win a lot of power battles as a result, but his ability to displace defenders with route exactitude and leverage may make him one of one in this class.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
Speaking of receivers who can win vertically… well, there’s nobody in this class who presents speed issues for defenders as Hyatt does. Yes, he lived in a constant state of free released in Josh Heupel’s wide-open Tennessee offense, and press coverage will be an adjustment at the NFL level, but at the same time, Hyatt is more than just a straight-line speed guy. Should the Ravens retain a happy Lamar Jackson, Jackson will be made even happier with Hyatt as a weapon.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
The Vikings need cornerbacks even after acquiring Byron Murphy, and with Brian Flores as their new defensive coordinator, they’ll need guys who can press and move with receivers all over the field. Smith projects well as an NFL prospect because he does just about everything well, but there are enough positive examples of aggressive coverage on his tape to make him an instant and natural fit in Flores’s schemes, which often force cornerbacks to play on zero-blitz islands.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Doug Pederson’s team has it all looking good on offense, especially with Calvin Ridley adding to the equation in 2023. The defense is the problem — more specifically, a secondary that ranked 30th in defensive passing DVOA. The Jags will need to fix that with talent if they want to hit the proverbial next level, and Forbes would provide a great start. He’s a bit of a unicorn at 6-foot-1 and 166 pounds, but that’s why there are protein shakes in NFL cafeterias. More importantly, Forbes finished his collegiate career with 14 interceptions, and an FBS-record six returns for touchdowns. That kind of “offense on defense” mindset seems exactly what Jacksonville’s defense needs.
25. New York Giants: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Giants GM Joe Schoen started the mandatory process of giving Daniel Jones more and better weapons with the additions of Darren Waller and Parris Campbell this offseason, but as receiver-depleted as Big Blue was before, there’s room for more in the receiver room. Johnson is a big, fast, yards-after-catch monster with some hands issues (eight drops in 2022, mostly of the focus variety), but for Jones, who needs that first-read open thing on lock, Johnston would be a highly valuable asset in the quick game, barreling over defenders on his way to the end zone.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
Jerry and Stephen Jones will have reason to look at improving their interior defensive line in this draft, and Bresee would erase that need as long as his injury issues in college don’t transfer. at 6-foot-5 and 298 pounds, Bresee is a natural one-gap penetrator who understands how to get quick pressure to the quarterback, and add tackles for loss in the run game. Bresee isn’t going to impress anybody looking for a two-gap plugger, but for the most part, modern NFL defenses are trending more his way than in the other direction.
27. Buffalo Bills: Broderick Jones, OL, Georgia
As the Bills start to transition from the offensive plan of “Let Josh Allen do everything” to something more sustainable, improvements along the offensive line should be considered at multiple positions. That makes Jones highly intriguing as a fit here for me, because while his Georgia tape shows a player who could be a legit offensive tackle, I think he might be even better as a guard, and I ranked him accordingly on my list of interior offensive linemen. Jones can protect Allen from anywhere, and he’ll be a headbanger with agility when it’s time to blow open the kinds of rushing lanes the Bills need to start establishing.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Keion White, DL, Georgia Tech
The Bengals addressed their most obvious need (left tackle) in free agency with the Orlando Brown Jr. contract, and while I could see them going right tackle later in this draft, there’s another sneaky need that should be noted. Cincinnati has estimable edge-rushers in Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, but there isn’t a lot of depth behind them, and in today’s NFL, you can never have too many pass-rushers. White would fit wonderfully in Lou Anarumo’s defense as a speed-to-power end who can both drop into coverage, and kick inside at times to provide interior pressure.
29. New Orleans Saints (from Denver Broncos): Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
This is simple math for me. The Saints signed former Raiders quarterback Derek Carr to a four-year, $150 million contract with $100 million guaranteed. If you look back at Carr’s time with the Raiders, tight end Darren Waller was often his most explosive target. When I watched Luke Musgrave play tight end, he reminded me a ton of Waller with his ability to win at the intermediate and deep levels, and occasional issues with blocking and drops. Carr might feel right at home with Musgrave as an addendum for his passing concepts.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
The Eagles lost some defensive talent in free agency (we’re sure Matt Patricia will fix all of that, sure), so don’t be surprised if general manager Howie Roseman fixes that with his common constraint of successfully in the trenches. Assuming that Philly will stick with their preferred five-man fronts under new defensive coordinator Sean Desai, Murphy would be a super fit in multiple gaps. at 6-foot-5 and 268 pounds, he’s got the speed and bend around the edge to make life difficult for offensive tackles, and he can also push guards around when you move him inside.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
Andy Reid lost both of his starting offensive tackles (Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie) in free agency, and responded to that by signing former Jaguars tackle Jawaan Taylor to a four-year, $80 million contract with $60 million guaranteed. Now, Taylor is a right tackle, and while the Chiefs have made all the right noises about his ability to move to the left side, we’re of the opinion that they should leave Taylor where he’s most comfortable, and get a guy who has already proven to be a natural to his quarterback’s blind side. That would be Harrison, who is as clean a pass-protector in this class, has run-blocking potential, and is consistent in his mechanics and technique. With this move, Kansas City’s offensive line should rival the NFL’s best.