Two NFL teams are dealing with the specter of losing their franchise quarterbacks, and trying to get as much as possible in return when the seemingly inevitable happens.
The Green Bay Packers seem to be just a few crossed “t’s” and dotted “i’s” away from trading Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets. In this scenario, the Jets give up their 13th overall pick this year, and a conditional high pick in 2024, for Rodgers’ services, and the clock officially starts on the Jordan Love era in Titletown.
The Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson seem no closer to a resolution on Lamar Jackson’s situation — they placed the non-exclusive tag on Jackson, which allows him to negotiate with other teams, and if he should get an offer sheet from another team, the Ravens would have five days to match the offer, or get two first-round picks from the team making that deal. In this case, the Indianapolis Colts sign Jackson to a five-year, $250 million deal with $200 million guaranteed in a deal that gives Jackson all he wants up front, and the Colts with some reasonable wiggle room on the back end. Baltimore gets Indianapolis’ fourth overall pick in the 2023 draft, and whatever their first-round pick is in 2024.
How would those two deals affect the 2023 draft as it stands now? Here are our three-round projections for just such a set of scenarios.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions, and Football Outsiders unless otherwise indicated).
1. Carolina Panthers (from Chicago Bears): C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Word is that a whole lot of people in the Panthers’ organization, starting with owner David Tepper, are big Bryce Young fans, and it’s not hard to imagine why. But I think Stroud better fits new head coach Frank Reich’s preferred profile of the quarterback with some second-reaction ability who wins primarily from the pocket with movement and phenomenal accuracy.
2. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Yes, Young is a size outlier at 5′ 10⅛” and 204 pounds — his weight at the scouting combine, when his playing weight was more like 185. NFL teams will have to puzzle through putting their franchise in the hands of a quarterback with a Doug Flutie size profile. But Young is also an outlier in the ways in which he’s able to transcend it and still do everything required of a modern quarterback. The Texans would be wise to take the risk.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
The Cardinals might be a candidate for trading down with some quarterback-desperate team should either Stroud or Young be available here, but I don’t think that happens, and Jonathan Gannon took over a team with needs everywhere, especially along the defensive line. Anderson will do a lot to help out — not only is he a marvelous edge defender with speed and power, he plays the run well, and he should be a tone-setter from the start of his Cardinals career.
4. Baltimore Ravens (from Indianapolis Colts): Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
The Ravens recover from losing the NFL’s most explosively athletic quarterback by starting the clock on the NFL’s new most explosively athletic quarterback. Nice work if you can get it, while grabbing two first-round picks in the process. We all know that Richardson has some work to do as a passer, but the athletic potential is unlike anything we’ve ever seen in a quarterback prospect, and if there’s one organization with a recent history of successfully working with a young quarterback to make the most of those gifts while developing the nuances of the position, it would be the Ravens.
5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Seahawks are certain to go defense with this first-round pick (and perhaps their second first-round pick) unless there’s some really strange quarterback movement at the top. Pete Carroll would love to have Gonzalez as Tariq Woolen’s bookend in Seattle’s secondary. Gonzalez is a player who just never looks overwhelmed when covering receivers outside, and this pick might give Carroll the most dominant outside cornerback twosome (which was basically Richard Sherman and a bunch of dudes in the LOB heyday) he’s had in the Emerald City.
6. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams): Jalen Carter, DI, Georgia
At some point in the top 10, some team is going to weigh the risks with Carter and decide that the tape which made him the best overall prospect in the 2023 draft is just too good to pass up. The Lions would seem to have an ideal environment for Carter — head coach Dan Campbell commands respect, Campbell has former NFL players all over his coaching staff, and there are enough veterans on the defensive side of the ball to give Carter the necessary boosts he needs to realize his awesome potential.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
The Raiders do have sack-master Maxx Crosby on one side of their defensive line, but there isn’t a lot behind that. Chandler Jones is 33 years old and coming off injured reserve, so now is a good time to raise the pass-rush profile for defensive coordinator Patrick Graham. Wilson is a developmental player, but the tape already shows amazing potential as an outside disruptor, and at his size, Wilson can also bust things up between the tackles from time to time.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Levis’ NFL team will have to balance his attributes (great arm, toughness, mobility) with liabilities (consistency, mechanics, processing) that could have him out of the NFL sooner than later if he’s in the wrong system. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith’s offense, which leans on play-action, multiple tight ends, and the run game, would provide Levis with a good starting point in which he wouldn’t be asked to be the force mutilpier.
9. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Receiver and offensive line will be temptations for Bears general manager Ryan Poles with the ninth overall pick, and for good reason. But if Witherspoon is still on the board here, it would be tough to pass him up on a short trip to Halas Hall. Witherspoon may well be the best cornerback in this class, and since Chicago’s cornerback group is a bit undefined beyond second-year man Kyler Gordon, Witherspoon would fill yet another need for this roster very much under development.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans Saints): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Imagine you’re new Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson. You already have the NFL’s best offensive line, a dominant QB-centric run game, and receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith as Jalen Hurts’ primary targets. Now, add Smith-Njigba to that offense as a slot and outside route maestro, and watch opposing defensive coordinators throw their hands up in utter frustration. Smith-Njigba was dynamic on the field when healthy last season, and his pre-draft process shows no lag from 2022’s injury issues.
11. Tennessee Titans: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Releasing Taylor Lewan in a salary cap purge means that the Titans need a new left tackle — yes, they signed former Eagles left tackle Andre Dillard, but that’s more of a flier than anything. Johnson would do much more to protect the blind side of Tennessee’s quarterback in 2023 and beyond, and he’s got the strength to be a fine addition in the Titans’ dominant run game.
12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns): Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
If there’s one thing Bryce Young struggled with a bit in his collegiate career, it was throwing deep over the middle — last season on throws of 20 or more air yards directly over the middle, Young completed just one of five passes for 40 yards. Giving Young a big target with speed to make those catches would help, and Johnston certainly qualifies. There are legitimate questions about his hands at this point in his career, but he’s also an impressive yards after catch threat — just turn on TCU’s game against Michigan for proof of that.
13. Green Bay Packers (from New York Jets): Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
With their 2023 first-round pick from the Aaron Rodgers trade, the Packers select Skoronski, the grandson of Bob Skoronski, the Green Bay left tackle who helped win five NFL titles and the first two Super Bowls with Vince Lombardi. The younger Skoronski is more than just a legacy pick, though — he’s got the talent to fill in for left tackle David Bakhtiari if Bakhtiari’s injury issues continue, and if you need him to kick inside to guard, he can probably do that just fine.
14. New England Patriots: Brian Branch, DB, Alabama
Bill Belichick appreciates versatile defensive backs, and there’s no such player in this draft class with more on the ball at more positions than Branch, who of course played his college ball for Belichick’s old buddy, Nick Saban. Branch would be an immediate fit anywhere from outside cornerback to the slot to the box to free safety, but I think his most impactful role could be as a pure safety — not unlike Minkah Fitzpatrick, who preceded Branch at Alabama, came into the NFL as a four-tool guy with the Dolphins, and then transformed into a top-5 free safety with the Steelers.
15. Green Bay Packers: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
With their own first-round pick in this class, let’s have general manager Brian Gutekunst add Kinaid to an offense that scored eight touchdowns in two-tight end sets last season, but lost Robert Tonyan to the Bears in free agency. Kincaid reminds me a ton of Travis Kelce when he came out of Cincinnati with his ability to win at all levels of the field, his toughness in contested catch situations, and his dynamite potential in the red zone. Kincaid could quickly become Jordan Love’s new nest friend.
16. Washington Commanders: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
With new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy in the fold, you can expect the Commanders to improve an offensive line that struggled in most areas last season. Let’s start with Jones, who would be an immediate upgrade over current projected left tackle Charles Leno, especially in the run game. In the passing game? Well, Jones allowed no sacks, two quarterback hits, and seven quarterback hurries last season for the national champions on 470 pass-blocking snaps, so he’s got quite a bit of potential there, as well.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Joey Porter Sr. played for the Steelers from 1999 through 2006, making three Pro Bowls and helping his original team win Super Bowl XL. This particular combination of player and franchise doesn’t have anything to do with that; it’s just Porter’s availability at a position of need for Pittsburgh, especially after losing Cameron Sutton to the Lions in free agency. Porter is a great eraser in press and man coverage, and for a player his size (6-foot-2 and 193 pounds, with a wingspan longer than a lot of offensive linemen), he’s done a nice job recently getting the hang of zone coverage.
18. Detroit Lions: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Were this draft held in the former millennium, Robinson might be the first overall player taken. It’s his misfortune to make his way to the NFL in an era where running backs have been devalued, but he’s done everything possible to put himself above the fray. Last season for the Longhorns, Robinson gained 1,575 yards and scored 18 rushing touchdowns on 257 carries, forcing an astonishing 104 missed tackles along the way. In an offense where current quarterback Jared Goff needs a quality run game and play action-based offense, and operating behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, Robinson could swing his way to Offensive Rookie of the Year status.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
The Buccaneers don’t get the new franchise quarterback they probably need in the draft (unless you’re a big Baker Mayfield believer), but they also released left tackle Donovan Smith in a cap-saving move, so whoever’s playing quarterback after Tom Brady in this offense could use a little help in the blocking category. An underrated pass protector with pop in the run game, Harrison would immediately improve his new offense with a complete skill set.
20. Seattle Seahawks: Calijah Kancey, DL, Pitt
It’s obvious that the Seahawks are in need of more along their front seven, especially along their defensive front. The acquisition of former Broncos multi-gap disruptor Dre’Mont Jones via free agency helps, but with this much in flux, Seattle would do well to pick up some interior pass-rush as well. Kancey, who put forth record-setting athleticism at the scouting combine that’s all over his game tape, had eight sacks and 47 total pressures for the Panthers last season on just 275 pass-rushing snaps. Kancey isn’t quite fellow Pitt alum Aaron Donald, but if you’re familiar with undersized two-time Pro Bowler Grady Jarrett of the Atlanta Falcons… well, that’s the guy I think he’s most like, and the Seahawks would very much enjoy a player of that type.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Now that Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been freed from the constraints of former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi’s risk-averse approach, and ex-Cowboys OC Kellen Moore is in charge of Herbert’s potential, let’s give Herbert a top-tier receiver with which to exploit a passing playbook that goes beyond the first 10 yards. Addison isn’t the biggest receiver in this class at 5-foot-11 and 173 pounds, but he combines great route awareness and the ability to sense and press defensive openings to any quarterback’s best effect.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
Now that the Ravens have Anthony Richardson as their quarterback of the future, why not add to Baltimore’s offense with the one thing Lamar Jackson never really had — a deep-threat receiver who can take the top off of any defense. You’ll hear some say that Hyatt benefited too much from defined openings in his college offense, but when you watch the tape, it’s clear that Hyatt’s pure speed and great hands would be a problem in any defense, for any offense. Richardson, who has the best deep arm in this draft class, could combine to make the Ravens the kind of vertical passing team they’ve never been before.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Under new defensive coordinator Brian Flores, you can expect the Vikings to be focused on man coverage, aggressive press pre-snap, and a lot of blitzing that forces cornerbacks to ply their trades on relative islands. Banks would be an ideal fit for what Flores prefers — he had the highest rate of press coverage (45%) among all cornerbacks in the 2023 draft class, and when pressing receivers, he allowed nine catches on 23 press targets for 46 yards, and only seven of those targets were deemed successes. Watching Banks’ press tape is funny, because it’s just bust after bust after bust for opposing receivers.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
The Jaguars ranked 30th in pass defense DVOA in 2022, and they didn’t do anything in free agency to make that any better. So, it’s time to look to the draft for improvement. Smith, who is one of the best man cornerbacks in this class, and can also play off and zone coverages very well, is the kind of plug-and-play starter who will make things better from his first rookie minicamp.
25. New York Giants: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
The Giants got receiver Parris Campbell via free agency and tight end Darren Waller vis trade this offseason, which is good news for perhaps the NFL’s most receiver-light roster. Head coach and offensive shot-caller Brian Daboll would love a receiver like Flowers, who combines track speed and outstanding release ability to confound cornerbacks of every type.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Bryan Bresee, DI, Clemson
The Cowboys made a great deal to accentuate their secondary with the trade for cornerback Stephon Gilmore, and that leaves interior defensive line as the one possible liability in Dan Quinn’s defense. As Quinn loves his linemen to pin their ears back and get after the passer, we’ll add Bresee to Quinn’s roster. Bresee has dealt with injury issues throughout his collegiate career, but when he’s on the field, he can disrupt from just about any gap. He’d be a great three-tech in four-man fronts, and could add value as an end in five-man alignments.
27. Buffalo Bills: Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State
Buffalo lost linebacker Tremaine Edmunds to the Bears in free agency, and as the Bills play as much nickel as any NFL team, there’s a need for another linebacker who can cover half a field in the run game, in coverage, and as a pass-rusher. Henley, who started his college career as a receiver at Nevada, transitioned to defensive back and then linebacker, transitioning his route understanding to coverage (four interceptions in 2021), and adding blitz ability and run defense at a new level upon his transfer to Washington State in 2022. He’s not the biggest name at his position in this class, but when you watch Henley’s tape, it’s clear that he has the potential to be the kind of ‘backer the Bills prefer.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
This is where the Bengals take care of all family business along their offensive line. They already gave Orlando Brown Jr. to a four-year, $64.092 million deal this offseason, and to add to a right tackle spot that needs just as much help, let’s bypass the idea of Jonah Williams moving to right tackle and instead have Cincinnati select Wright, who allowed no sacks and eight total pressures in 507 pass-blocking snaps last season, and managed to shut down Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. and LSU’s BJ Ojulari — two of the SEC’s better pass-rushers — in consecutive weeks with radically different techniques.
29. New Orleans Saints (from Denver Broncos): Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
Dennis Allen’s defense lost edge-rusher Marcus Davenport, defensive lineman David Onyemata, linebacker Kaden Elliss, and defensive tackles Kentavius Street and Shy Tuttle in free agency, and didn’t do much to replace any of them. So, it’s time for the Saints to get some line help in this draft with the pick they got from the Broncos for Sean Payton. Van Ness isn’t the most flexible edge defender, but he brings power and production to the table, and at 6-foot-5 and 272 pounds, he can kick inside and wreak additional havoc.
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
Smith lost a lot of his 2022 season to a torn pectoral muscle, but came back to absolutely rock the combine with his outstanding athleticism, so we can safety assume that his game will transfer to the NFL pretty quickly. He’s not the biggest guy at 6-foot-2 and 238 pounds, but the Eagles can afford to take a bit of a luxury pick here, and in the five-man fronts they prefer (and will still run with new defensive coordinator Sean Desai), Smith can stay outside the tackles and just go after the quarterback. Imagine a five-man front in this case with Smith and Haason Reddick rushing off the edges? That’s no fun for any offense.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
Once again, the Chiefs are in transition with their offensive line. Two years after flipping all five of their starters (not a common construct), they lost left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and right tackle Andrew Wylie in free agency. The left tackle problem was estimably solved by giving former Jaguars blocker Jawaan Taylor a four-year, $80 million contract. Right tackle could be similarly sewn up with this Dawand Jones selection. Jones played mostly right tackle for the Buckeyes, he did so very well, and he did so with remarkable movement skills for a guy standing 6-foot-8 and weighing 374 pounds.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Chicago Bears): O'Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida
33. Houston Texans: Luke Wypler, C, Ohio State
34. Arizona Cardinals: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
35. Indianapolis Colts: Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina
36. Los Angeles Rams: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
37. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos): Joe Tippman, C, Wisconsin
38. Las Vegas Raiders: Steve Avila, OG, TCU
39. Carolina Panthers: Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati
40. New Orleans Saints: Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee
41. Tennessee Titans: Michael Wilson, WR, Stanford
42. New York Jets (from Cleveland Browns): Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern
43. New York Jets: Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse
44. Atlanta Falcons: Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
45. Green Bay Packers: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
46. New England Patriots: Karl Brooks, DL, Bowling Green
47. Washington Commanders: John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota
48. Detroit Lions: Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State
49. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland
50. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
51. Miami Dolphins: Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa
52. Seattle Seahawks: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
53. Chicago Bears (from Baltimore Ravens): Blake Freeland, OT, BYU
54. Los Angeles Chargers: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
55. Detroit Lions (from Minnesota Vikings): Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
56. Jacksonville Jaguars: Cody Mauch, OL, North Dakota State
57. New York Giants: BJ Ojulari, EDGE, LSU
58. Dallas Cowboys: Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA
59. Buffalo Bills: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
60. Cincinnati Bengals: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
61. Chicago Bears (from San Francisco 49ers) Tyrique Stevenson, CB, Miami
62. Philadelphia Eagles: Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M
63. Kansas City Chiefs: Siaki Ika, DT, Baylor
64. Chicago Bears: Tuli Tuipulotu, EDGE, USC
65. Houston Texans: Derick Hall, EDGE, Auburn
66. Arizona Cardinals: Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin
67. Denver Broncos (from Indianapolis Colts): Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas
68. Denver Broncos: Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech
69. Los Angeles Rams: Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State
70. Las Vegas Raiders: Tanner McKee, QB, Stanford
71. New Orleans Saints: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
72. Tennessee Titans: Dorian Williams, LB, Tulane
73. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns): Kobie Turner, DI, Wake Forest
74. Cleveland Browns (from New York Jets): Gervon Dexter Sr., DI, Florida
75. Atlanta Falcons: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State
76. New England Patriots (from Carolina Panthers): Sydney Brown, S, Illinois
77. Los Angeles Rams (from New England Patriots): Jammie Robinson, S, Florida State
78. Green Bay Packers: Rashee Rice, WR, SMU
79. Indianapolis Colts (from Washington Commanders): Warren McClendon, OT, Georgia
80. Pittsburgh Steelers: Nathaniel "Tank" Dell, WR, Houston
81. Detroit Lions: JL Skinner, S, Boise State
82. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Isaiah Foskey, EDGE, Notre Dame
83. Seattle Seahawks: Tyjae Spears, RB, Tulane
84. Miami Dolphins: Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah
85. Los Angeles Chargers: Nick Herbig, EDGE, Wisconsin
86. Baltimore Ravens: Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, CB, TCU
87. Minnesota Vikings: Garrett Williams, CB, Syracuse
88. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jordan Battle, S, Alabama
89. New York Giants: DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Texas
90. Dallas Cowboys: A.T. Perry, WR, Wake Forest
91. Buffalo Bills: Ji'Ayir Brown, S, Penn State
92. Cincinnati Bengals: Christopher Smith, S, Georgia
93. Carolina Panthers (from San Francisco 49ers): Andre Carter II, EDGE, Army
94. Philadelphia Eagles: Roschon Johnson, RB, Texas
95. Kansas City Chiefs: Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma
96. Arizona Cardinals: Tyler Steen, OT, Alabama
97. Washington Commanders: DJ Turner, CB, Michigan
98. Cleveland Browns: Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M
99. San Francisco 49ers: Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama
100. Las Vegas Raiders (from Kansas City Chiefs): Jartavius Martin, S, Illinois
101. San Francisco 49ers: Jaylon Jones, CB, Texas A&M
102. San Francisco 49ers: Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn
